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FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!

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February 2, 2023 07:07 AM
Research

AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather

There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.

Research

European Open: GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

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December 14, 2022 04:47 PM

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US CPI surprises for the second month in a row. What does it mean for the Fed?

Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!

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December 14, 2022 03:01 AM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

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December 13, 2022 07:21 AM
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European Open: Flash PMIs and US inflation on tap

The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.

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December 1, 2022 05:59 PM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

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December 1, 2022 12:58 AM
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Australian inflation fell… but just ‘weight’ a minute

Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y

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November 30, 2022 01:32 PM
Research

Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

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November 30, 2022 03:03 AM
Research

Growth concerns replace inflation woes

…But stock markets keep on rising for now.

Canadian inflation remains elevated. However, USD/CAD unfazed

Inflation in Canada is still high despite the Bank of Canada “only” hiking 50bps at its last meeting, rather than the 75bps that the markets expected

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November 20, 2022 02:12 AM
Japanese Flag

Japan’s inflation hits the ‘40-year high’ club

Japan, long known for their lack of inflation, has just seen consumer prices rise to their highest levels since 1982.

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November 18, 2022 12:11 PM
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Technical Tuesday: EUR/USD, GOLD and Russell

In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, EUR/USD, gold and the Russell index.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment worse than expected; Inflation components roughly in-line

The November preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 54.7 vs an expectation of 59.5 and an October reading of 59.9.

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November 12, 2022 04:05 AM
Research

There’ll be a lot of bond bears with sore heads today

Traders were net-short the 2-year treasure note by a record amount last week. Which means falling yields are likely driven by short-covering by bears with sore heads.

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November 11, 2022 11:01 AM
Energy

WTI’s trend break more good news re inflation

...after CPI came in much weaker

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November 11, 2022 04:42 AM
Research

Markets looking for higher Central Bank terminal rates

Major central banks around the world have been hiking rates at an unprecedented pace in order to try and cap inflation, which in some countries is at or near 40-year highs.

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November 10, 2022 07:51 AM

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European Open: EUR/USD falls below parity ahead of the US Core PCE report

After just one day above it, the euro is back below parity. And it could face further selling pressure if US inflation comes in hotter than expected today.

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October 28, 2022 03:16 PM
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European Open: EUR/USD falls below parity ahead of the US Core PCE report

After just one day above it, the euro is back below parity. And it could face further selling pressure if US inflation comes in hotter than expected today.

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October 28, 2022 03:16 PM
Australian flag

Australian inflation is the latest ‘hot beat’ on the dancefloor

Economic data beats are usually a good thing, unless it is in the guise of much higher than expected (and already elevated) inflation.

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October 26, 2022 02:47 PM
Australian flag

Australian inflation is the latest ‘hot beat’ on the dancefloor

Economic data beats are usually a good thing, unless it is in the guise of much higher than expected (and already elevated) inflation.

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October 26, 2022 02:47 PM
Board of currencies

How to use the currency carry trade strategy

A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing a low-yield currency and investing in a high-yielding asset to exploit the interest rate differential. Carry trades are most common in forex trading with traders borrowing the low interest Japanese yen to buy higher interest currencies. Learn what currency pairs work best and how to execute the strategy yourself in our full guide.

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October 25, 2022 07:15 PM
Australian flag

AUD remains rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report

Australian inflation data is released tomorrow, and if it comes in hotter than expected – like it did on New Zealand – if adds another fly in the ointment for the RBA

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October 25, 2022 01:14 PM