XAU/USD

Gold has been extremely bullish since last October’s open and as the Fed’s retained a dovish stance the yellow metal has forced a massive breakout. The big question now is whether it can continue.

Soft inflation figures from Canada and a poll of economists backing a June Fed cut sent gold higher on Wednesday, as traders refreshed their dovish bets. Crude oil has also faltered once more at a key resistance area.

Gold has been resilient so far in 2024 even as USD strength re-appeared. The big question now is whether bulls can find a more favorable outcome on tests of resistance at $2,032 or $2,050.

The U.S. Dollar set another fresh high yesterday, extending the bullish structure that’s priced in so far this year.

The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.

Gold is currently down -1.8% in January, and I see further downside potential due to the growing case for a stronger US dollar. But that doesn’t mean gold will fall against everything by the same degree, if at all.

January is usually a decent month for gold prices looking at this seasonality chart. But with gold rallying each month in Q4 and failing to hold onto gains above the prior record high, has it peaked too soon to expect another strong month?

Gold is holding on to a near 12% gain in 2023 but it’s the position on the chart and the backdrop of monetary policy that’s of interest for 2024.

Gold prices are testing a massive spot of support above the 1900 handle, even as the US Dollar jumps to fresh highs. Can gold bulls turn a support test into a swing?

The US Dollar is holding near resistance ahead of high-impact data, with tomorrow’s CPI release followed by the Thursday ECB rate decision, and then next week’s FOMC meeting.

Despite competing with the strength of the dollar, gold has been trading higher against all other major currencies since its low in August. This could suggest that gold is acting as a safe haven, even if it is not immediately obvious from the XAU/USD chart.

Hawkish FOMC minutes caught markets by surprise which saw US bond yields and the USD continue to rise and sending Wall Street lower for a second day. Whilst spot gold closed beneath 1900, futures have not - so perhaps support awaits). USD/JPY is soaring higher despite a warning from the MOF. And now the ASX reached my first bearish target, I’m now wondering if it can it reach for the second.

The day has finally rolled around for today’s US inflation report, which likely has the power to sway the Fed’s next interest rate decision. So today we look at key levels for EUR/USD and gold ahead of the key CPI report.

Gold prices snapped a four-week winning streak with XAU/USD now testing multi-month uptrend support. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.

On Wednesday, the gold outlook dimmed further as investors assessed the main message coming from this week's Sintra conference – that more policy tightening is on the way – and decided to punish the metal further.

While the short-term gold outlook remains murky, there is little doubt in my mind that the longer-term gold forecast is positive...

Wall Street posted a strong rally on Friday on reports that the debt ceiling is on track to be raised, yet gold managed to hold above key support levels and sits at a potential inflection point.