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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Goldilocks NFP takes NDX to 14-month highs
The Nasdaq 100 is at 14-month highs after the headline NFP reading beat expectations for the 15th straight month, coming in at 339K vs. just 193K eyed
US dollar analysis: Will a strong NFP report force the Fed to hike?
The next major hurdle for the US dollar and the economy will be Friday’s NFP reading, which is expected to show nearly 200K net new jobs and wages to rise at 0.3% m/m
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY probes 140 ahead of Core PCE
USD/JPY remains in a bullish short-term trend, with room to extend its rally toward 142.00 before encountering meaningful resistance...
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EUR/USD, DAX analysis: Hawkish ECB vs. dovish Fed
EUR/USD and DAX traders are digesting the differing monetary policy assessments from the Fed and ECB this weekend.
US dollar analysis: When will NFP be bad enough for the Fed to cut?
Instead of looking for an NFP reading that’s “good enough to keep the Fed raising interest rates,” US dollar traders will shifting their focus to watching out for data that is “bad enough to prompt rate cuts.”
US dollar analysis: Fed threads the needle, still sees no cuts
Powell appears to be threading the needle between leaving the door open for additional rate hikes while remaining responsive to the current banking stresses.
US dollar analysis: Fed poised to hike, but will it be the last?
Ahead of the Fed, the US dollar has generally fallen vs. the euro this year, but there are signs EUR/USD may be losing its bullish momentum after a failed breakout to 1-year highs.
US dollar analysis: Will NFP help the USD rise from the dead?
The US dollar is testing longer-term support and could see a bounce on a decent NFP reading
FOMC meeting recap: Dollar dives on “dovish hike”
The Fed has toned down its statement to give it flexibility to pause the interest rate hiking cycle in May depending on incoming economic data
What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?
Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?
Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.
US CPI recap: GBP/USD holds above 200-day EMA as inflation meets expectations
The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021
NFP preview: Have dollar bulls gotten ahead of themselves?
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report - see why!
Powell puts a 50bps March hike firmly on the radar, GBP/USD tests 2023 lows
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 60/40 shot of a 50bps rate hike in two weeks’ time and that rates could peak above 5.5%.
Powell prepares to pontificate to policymakers, AUD/USD tests 0.6700 support
Some officials and Fed watchers have suggested a 50 basis-point move should be on the table if inflation fails to slow...
FOMC minutes instant insight: A touch of hawkishness leaves a 50bps rate hike on the table
There is nothing in these FOMC minutes that should keep the central bank from raising interest rates “higher for longer” if US economic data continues to come in stronger than expected.
Markets are waking up to a 50bp Fed hike, FOMC mins up next
It may have taken a few weeks, but markets are finally pricing in what we argued all along; a higher terminal rate and no cuts this year.
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US CPI preview: Disinflation has begun, but will it be fast enough for the Fed?
The US CPI report is now THE single economic release with the largest expected market movement, so traders should absolutely have this release marked with the bullet on their calendars.
GBP/USD rallies to the mid-1.21s, despite big bets on a 6% Fed rate
One trader amassed a large position in options that would make $135 million if the central bank keeps tightening until September!
Nasdaq 100 uptrend intact after Fed Williams rehashes Powell
Markets are skeptical that the central bank will tighten policy enough to derail the economy, even if inflation remains stubborn.
Will Powell disappoint dollar die-hards?
Futures markets now tally with many Fed policymakers for the first time this year, accepting the Fed's "terminal rate" will be above 5%...
European Open: Currencies tread water ahead of Jerome Powell speech
The USD pulled back yet mostly held on to its post-NFP gains in anticipation of a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell this evening.
NFP preview: Imbalanced labor market to remain a thorn in the Fed’s side?
Will this finally be the reading that shows signals the tight labor market is easing?