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Crude oil spikes on reports of Israeli airstrike, gold threatens new high

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.

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US dollar taps 106 as US 2yr eyes break of 5%, gold rangebound: Asian Open

The US dollar index recouped some of Wednesday's losses and is now tapping 106, whilst the US 2-year yields considers a break above 5%.

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AUD/USD, ASX 200 dragged lower during risk-off trade: Asian Open

A risk-off tone ensued across global markets to send the US dollar higher, to the detriment of AUD/USD and the ASX 200.

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April 17, 2024 08:19 AM

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Gold analysis: Balancing geopolitical risks and rising dollar, yields

Gold investors face key dilemma as rising geopolitical risks could keep gold supported on dips, but even higher yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold technical analysis point to overbought conditions, so a bit of short-term weakness should not come as surprise.

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April 16, 2024 12:00 AM
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US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.

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Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions

Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.

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DJIA analysis: Risk off as stocks plunges and even gold reverses

DJIA analysis: Stocks tumble on Middle East jitters, as VIX spikes. US dollar has also extended its rally on reduced rate cut expectations and risk off sentiment. Meanwhile, gold looks like it may have topped out.

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Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance

Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.

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April 12, 2024 02:51 PM
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Gold analysis: Charts point to extreme overbought levels – Technical Tuesday

Gold analysis: Technical levels and factors to watch on gold as the metal hits a fresh record high. But at these extremely overbought levels, do watch out for a possible correction. Gold's resistance against rising yields may be short-lived.

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AUD/USD perks up, gold continues to defy gravity: Asian Open

Momentum is turning higher for AUD/USD during a month that tends to promote positive returns, and gold bulls continue to dominate price action as it reaches yet another record high.

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April 9, 2024 08:56 AM
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Gold technical analysis: Overbought conditions need addressing

Gold's weekly RSI above 75 is too high for bulls to be comfortable with following its big rally. Additionally, gold may be unable to defy rising yields for too long, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. US CPI coming up later in the week could trigger the next big move in gold.

Research

US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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April 8, 2024 01:35 PM
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Crude oil, gold pullbacks unlikely to last long with inflation expectations so elevated

It’s not just fundamentals and technicals driving the rally across large parts of the commodity complex right now, but also a collective rethink from traders about what more than 250 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this cycle will mean for the long-term global inflation trajectory.

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April 8, 2024 12:33 PM
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Gold analysis: Overbought metal could be hit by profit-taking as silver breaks out

Precious metals again disregard rising yields, as silver stages big breakout and gold rallies to a new record high. Gold technical analysis suggests yellow metal is at extreme overbought levels.

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April 6, 2024 01:00 PM
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USD/JPY, Gold outlook: The payrolls figure in the NFP report is not as important as you think

Forget focusing on the payrolls figure in the US jobs report. It’s not as important as it’s made out to be. Traders would be better off looking at unemployment and average hourly earnings data if they want to know how markets are likely to react.

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April 5, 2024 12:15 PM
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US dollar, USD/JPY, gold performance around Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Data since the Pandemic shows that NFP job growth has generally outperformed estimates and seen the prior figure upwards revised, which has played out well for US dollar bulls.

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April 4, 2024 04:27 PM
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Gold analysis: Metal looking over-stretched after big rally

Gold within $5 shy of $2300 in another record hitting session after the ISM PMI missed expectations. Gold technical analysis suggests metal is looking overbought and that a pullback could be on the way soon.

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April 4, 2024 04:00 AM

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Gold Analysis: XAU/USD Surges to Fresh Record Above $2250 – Where Next?

Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above previous-resistance-turned-support near $2200 ahead of NFP on Friday

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Gold analysis: precious metal ignores dollar, yields strength

Key factors precious metals traders will be watching for the rest of this week are discussed in this article. US dollar and yields rise following on hawkish comments from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, but this has not prevented gold from rising back above $2200. Technical analysis point to new records for gold.

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March 28, 2024 09:30 PM
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Gold forecast: Pullback on the radar - just don’t expect Armageddon

Looking at an equal-weighted gold basket against FX majors, its bullish character has certainly changed since breaking above its previous ATH.

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March 27, 2024 10:24 AM
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Gold and silver analysis: Technical Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will get technical on precious metals.

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Gold outlook remains positive despite dollar strength

While gold displayed mild bearish price action, leading to some calls that it may have peaked, I am unequivocally convinced that its long-term trajectory remains bullish, and it is conceivable that prices could soon reach unprecedented highs again.

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March 26, 2024 01:30 AM
Research

AUD/USD net-short exposure reached a record high last week: COT report

An increase of bearish bets against AUD/USD pushed net-short exposure to a record high among large speculators.