Matt Weller CFA, CMT
Matt Weller CFA, CMT
Head of Market Research
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FOMC meeting recap: Dollar dives on “dovish hike”
The Fed has toned down its statement to give it flexibility to pause the interest rate hiking cycle in May depending on incoming economic data
Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.
US CPI recap: GBP/USD holds above 200-day EMA as inflation meets expectations
The report printed in line with expectations at 6.0% y/y, the smallest annualized gain since September 2021
US CPI preview: Fed rate expectations dive, USD/CAD tests 1.37
In the wake of the implosion of SVB, traders are dialing down their expectations for Fed hawkishness next week...
NFP preview: Have dollar bulls gotten ahead of themselves?
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report - see why!
Crypto corner: Is it the end of the crypto winter or merely a false spring?
There is certainly a compelling case that the worst of the winter is behind us, though crypto traders shouldn’t necessarily be donning their tank tops, swim trunks, and sunglasses quite yet!
Powell puts a 50bps March hike firmly on the radar, GBP/USD tests 2023 lows
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 60/40 shot of a 50bps rate hike in two weeks’ time and that rates could peak above 5.5%.
Powell prepares to pontificate to policymakers, AUD/USD tests 0.6700 support
Some officials and Fed watchers have suggested a 50 basis-point move should be on the table if inflation fails to slow...
S&P 500 testing 6-week lows as ISM Manufacturing PMI shows price pressures remain
The prices sub-index rose to 51.3 in February, up from 44.5 in January, indicating that manufacturers are paying more for inputs.
EUR/USD: Rally potential after hot Spanish and French CPI readings
The ECB had already planned a half-point rate move in March, and these stronger readings are likely to bolster officials who say that more big moves are needed beyond that to get inflation under control.
Index in focus: DAX (Germany 40) poised for a potential breakout
A confirmed bullish breakout above 15,600 could quickly expose the psychological round number at 16,000, followed by the index’s record high around 16,300 after that...