News and analysis

In today's gold forecast, we're witnessing a small rebound not only in gold prices but also across various asset classes, including the major European stock averages while yesterday saw crude oil recovery strongly to close around 1% higher.

USDJPY Forecast: the anticipation of a tighter monetary policy at the next BOJ meeting has dominated oversold pressures on the USDJPY. Is there a reversal on the horizon?

Harris replacing Biden may not be a radical overhaul where policies are concerned, but it has certainly brought the Democrat’s prospects for maintaining power back from the brink of death. From a market perspective, it means Trump is no longer a ‘walk in’ President, and political headlines from the US are no longer driving sentiment for now. Thankfully, we have intertest rate decisions from the FOMC, BOE and BOJ to drive sentiment, along with NFP and Australia’s CPI report for good measure.

AUD/USD has equaled its longest losing streak since August 2019, hammered by deteriorating sentiment towards the outlook for the Chinese economy and investor risk appetite, especially towards big tech. But with signs of stablisation in commodity and US stock futures, the grounds for a squeeze higher are growing.

USD/JPY formed a potential bullish reversal day at key support ahead of today's US inflation report. With decent GDP figures also helping crude oil prices post a decent day's gain.

Stronger GDP, core durable goods orders and the drop in oil inventories have all helped to alleviate demand concerns somewhat, reducing the pressure on oil prices. After today’s reversal-looking price candle, our crude oil forecast has turned modestly bullish.

EUR/USD is trying to stage a bounce off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-June to mid-July rally

The robust rally in the first half of the year set high expectations, particularly in the technology sector. While some sector rotation into energy and financials occurred last week, it wasn't sufficient to prevent a broader market decline. Disappointing earnings from key players like Alphabet and Tesla have led to revised investor expectations.

U.S. stocks have halted the deep sell-off. Better-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter helped to ease fears that the Fed may need to rush rate cuts to prevent a recession. Personal spending, the key driver for the US economy, was stronger than expected, and PCE cooled. The modest move higher comes after the Nasdaq experienced its worst one-day selloff yesterday since 2022.