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GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD held at a five-month low after jobs data and ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Oil rose after China's GDP growth and amid ongoing Middle Eastern tensions.

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Today 05:49 PM
Uptrend

NZD/USD: Inflation the only barrier between the RBNZ and rate cuts

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

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Today 04:11 PM
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USD/CAD analysis: Canadian CPI in focus for BOC clues

With the odds of a Fed cut arriving this year now in jeopardy, it is now over to the BOE, ECB or BOC to take the title as ‘first to begin easing’. And that brings Canadian CPI data into focus today for CAD traders.

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AUD/USD bearish trend may be disrupted by China’s market open

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

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Today 10:44 AM

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Research

USD/JPY eyes 155, WTI crude oil looks set to bounce: Asian Open

USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.

Bitcoin Halving 2024: BTC/USD Poised for a Breakout Ahead of Quadrennial Halvening

A breakout from Bitcoin’s recent $61K-$73K range is inevitable – see the key levels to watch from here below!

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Gold analysis: Balancing geopolitical risks and rising dollar, yields

Gold investors face key dilemma as rising geopolitical risks could keep gold supported on dips, but even higher yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold technical analysis point to overbought conditions, so a bit of short-term weakness should not come as surprise.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as risk sentiment improves

US stocks are set to open higher on Monday after steep losses last week. Following an attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend and comments from the US that it will not support a retaliatory attack by Israel, the market has calmed. Geopolitical developments will remain a key focus this week. US retail sales came in stronger than forecast, supporting the view that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Goldman Sachs is set to rise after earnings.

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Yesterday 11:14 PM
Close-up of market chart showing downtrend

GBP/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – April 15, 2024

The GBP/USD could be impacted significantly by UK CPI data this week. For now, markets are calm as Iran tensions have eased, but the situation remains volatile, likely to keep risk appetite low. The GBP/USD outlook is bearish as US dollar is likely to remain supported on any short-term dips.

Research

EUR/USD, Oil forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 as the mood steadies, Oil prices fall as geopolitical tensions calm.

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Yesterday 06:52 PM
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq forecast: Key levels for US indices

The recent underperformance of the Dow Jones has not come without warning, as asset managers have been reducing their net-long exposure for several weeks now. Yet the Nasdaq remains above 18k, which means it may be better suited for bulls should sentiment improve and leave the Dow Jones for bears to consider fading into, should prices rebound.

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USD/JPY forecast: New threat emerges as biggest risk to the rally

Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

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Yesterday 01:08 PM
Close-up of market chart

US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.

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