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USD/JPY hints at another false break, AUD/USD looks set to bounce

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

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Today 08:58 AM

Convergence of key levels provides major test for crude oil bulls

Tuesday looms as a great day to wait and observe the price action in WTI crude following another powerful surge, leaving the benchmark at a key level it struggled to overcome in the past. Its performance may provide a strong signal on whether to get onboard the bullish move or get setup for shorts on a possible swing top.

Oil refinery

Crude oil forecast: WTI breaks out

Despite weaker-than-expected industrial data from China overnight, which should have raised concerns about demand, crude oil prices have rallied more than 1.5% today, building on the 3.5% to 4.0% increase from the previous week.


S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed speakers & retail sales later in the week

U.S. stocks are heading for a muted start as the dust settles on last week's inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision. There is no high-impacting data today, so attention will be on tomorrow's retail sales data and Fed speakers for more clues about when the Fed could start cutting rates. Last week, the Fed pointed to one rate cut this year. However, the market is still pricing in two rate cuts.

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Yesterday 11:20 PM

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GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – June 17, 2024

The GBP/USD forecast is in focus, with the upcoming Bank of England rate decision, UK CPI, retail sales from both sides of the pond and global PMI data all on tap this week. Plus, there is the added uncertainty from the upcoming UK general election.

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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD steadies with political uncertainty still at the forefront, Oil falls after weak US consumer sentiment & China data.


Gold forecast: Will XAU/USD rise on lower yields?

Gold has started the new week on the back foot after climbing more than 1% on Friday, to post a positive close on the week which ended a three-week losing streak.

Molten metal

Iron ore, copper crumble as China’s property downturn worsens

Given significant uncertainty towards the demand outlook, it may be preferable to let the price action tell us what to do rather than pre-empt on fundamental grounds.

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Bears were busy last week as they piled into shorts against EUR/USD and the Dow Jones, and also reached a record level of net-short exposure to the Canadian dollar. And this was beneficial for USD bulls.


Potential RBNZ dovish pivot no guarantee to deliver NZD/USD weakness

Markets are alert to the risk of the RBNZ switching focus, dragging NZD/USD lower. But when it comes to directional risks for the New Zealand dollar beyond the short-term, it really comes back to the US interest rate outlook and health of the global economy.

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Yesterday 12:33 PM

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 17th 2024

Price action remains choppy and challenging for AUD/USD traders on the daily timeframe or higher. This makes it better suited for intraday traders, or those seeking to trade the range by entering around the lows, exiting near highs or potentially fade into the for a move lower. It is not a glamorous way of trading, but for now we have clear levels AUD/USD is holding around.


USD/JPY reverses hard after BOJ disappointment, warning of potential top

The sizeable reversal in USD/JPY following the BOJ interest rate decision may be the start of a far larger move, unless you think the Federal Reserve may be forced to abandon the prospect of rate cuts this year. Given asymmetrical risks for the US rate outlook and increasingly tepid US economic data, selling USD/JPY rallies is preferred.

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Yesterday 09:58 AM
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