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Gold outlook: inflation data takes centre stage as metal consolidates

This week’s key data is the core PCE price index, due on Friday. Ahead of it, gold may remain in a consolidation phase. Whether we see further short-term weakness following last week’s 3% drop doesn't significantly alter the long-term bullish gold outlook.

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May 29, 2024 02:43 AM
Oil refinery

Crude Oil Outlook: Demand Potential vs OPEC Supply Policies

Crude Oil Outlook: Oil charts are set to gear up this week with a confluence of factors including economic growth metrics, geo-political tensions, inventories, and OPEC policies.

united_states_01

NASDAQ 100 Forecast QQQ steadies below the ATH ahead of inflation data

US stocks edge lower as traders return from the long weekend break and look ahead to inflation data later in the week. The data comes as the market remains fixed on when the Fed could start to cut interest rates. Expectations have been pushed back after a strong of Fed officials warned that they need to see more evidence of inflation cooling before cutting rates.

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May 29, 2024 12:00 AM
Close-up of market chart

EUR/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – May 28, 2024

EUR/USD outlook could be impacted by key inflation data from Eurozone and US this week, as euro makes positive start to new week and dollar falls. EUR/USD technical analysis points higher after breaking from its bullish flag pattern. However, with key data on tap, the upside could be limited.

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united_kingdom_03

GBP/USD, DAX Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD steadies ahead of US consumer confidence & Fed speakers. DAX inches higher after wholesale prices fall & ahead of a big week for inflation.

Forex trading

USD on track to snap 4-month winning streak, EUR/USD bulls eye 1.09

Barring a miraculous rebound before the end of month, the USD index is on track to snap its first 4-month winning streak since the December 2022 high.

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Today 04:01 PM
Uptrend

GBP/USD, NZD/USD: Bullish breaks bring tougher tests on the horizon

GBP/USD and NZD/USD look bullish on the charts, breaking to fresh multi-month highs. With a light calendar in the UK and New Zealand, positioning tweaks ahead of Friday’s key US PCE inflation report looks set to drive the price action in the coming days.

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Today 01:08 PM
stocks_02

These S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones ‘rallies’ look made to fade

We have four full trading days left in the month, and odds favour another bullish month for US indices. However, price action on the daily timeframe has alerted me to a potential pullback, while VIX futures and market positioning are also sending smoke signals to be aware of.

Quarry and various stones

Crude oil, copper bounce as commodity rally resumes before US inflation report

The rout in commodity prices didn’t last long, as expected, with dip buyers emerging late last week to take advantage of better entry levels. Crude and copper look particularly constructive following the recent bounce.

Research

AUD/USD, ASX 200 drift higher ahead of AU retail sales: Asian Open

Volatility levels were lower, as one would expect with the UK and US on a public holiday Monday. And that allowed AUD/USD to drift higher alongside the ASX 200 futures market, even if I do not fully trust the moves.

Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 26, 2024

A 2-week bearish reversal pattern below resistance suggests there could be some further downside potential for AUD/USD, although Friday's bullish engulfing day hints at a minor bounce first.

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Yesterday 06:00 AM
    Finger pointing on market chart data

    EUR/USD analysis: Key inflation data in focus

    Inflation is in focus in the week ahead. The German CPI report will come out on Wednesday, a couple of days ahead of the Eurozone numbers on Friday, when we will also have that Core PCE Price index from the US.

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    May 26, 2024 12:00 PM
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