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US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.

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Today 10:48 AM

Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions

Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.


Weekly equities forecast: Netflix, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble

Earnings season starts to ramp up this week with earnings from Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble are among those reports that investors will be watching closely.


AUD/USD weekly outlook: Aussie bears return from the sideline

AUD/USD traders will keep an eye on NZ inflation figures next week to see if disinflationary forces are picking up pace, in hopes that it will provide a lead for Australia. But if Thursday's AU employment report continues to knock out decent figures, then an RBA cut remains to be a distant hope for the future.

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Yesterday 10:00 PM

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    DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Forecast: US Indices Falter on War Fears

    US indices are seeing diverging performance, with the DJIA looking relatively weak and the Nasdaq 100 uptrend remaining healthy.

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    EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix

    With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.

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    Yesterday 06:00 AM
    Close-up of market chart showing downtrend

    GBP/USD analysis: US dollar rallies on inflation and Middle East jitters

    Risk assets tumbled on Middle East tensions, adding additional pressure on the cable on Friday with US dollar already on the rise. Key UK inflation data is coming up in the week ahead, as GBP/USD technical analysis point lower after breaking 1.25 key support.

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    April 13, 2024 10:00 PM
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    DJIA analysis: Risk off as stocks plunges and even gold reverses

    DJIA analysis: Stocks tumble on Middle East jitters, as VIX spikes. US dollar has also extended its rally on reduced rate cut expectations and risk off sentiment. Meanwhile, gold looks like it may have topped out.

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    S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls as banks kick off Q1 earnings season

    US stocks open lower as traders have plenty to worry about- rising concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, hotter-than-expected inflation this week, and some disappointment from the banks as they kick off earnings season. Riskier assets such as stocks are under pressure amid fears that Iran could attack Israel this weekend. Meanwhile, safe haven Gold rose to a fresh record high, and the USD rallies.

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    April 12, 2024 11:38 PM
    Forex trading

    EUR/USD analysis: Forex Friday, April 12, 2024

    The ECB is moving closer to cutting rates while the Fed’s timeline lengthens. This is bearish for the EUR/USD forecast. Today, the UoM surveys will come out and we have a few Fed speakers too.

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    April 12, 2024 08:30 PM

    Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance

    Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.

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    April 12, 2024 02:51 PM

    UK, CA, NZ inflation at the helm: The Week Ahead

    With traders keen to see who will be the first among the BOE, BOC or RBNZ to cut rates, their attention will be surely on next week's inflation reports for their respective regions.

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    April 12, 2024 01:39 PM

    Nasdaq’s bullish signal may deliver upside for the Nikkei 225

    While the Nasdaq 100 has broken its 2024 uptrend, traders continue to buy the dip, generating a bullish signal on Thursday. That points to possible upside not only for US tech but also Japan’s Nikkei 225.

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    April 12, 2024 12:28 PM
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