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Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.

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Today 02:28 PM
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 26, 2024

A 2-week bearish reversal pattern below resistance suggests there could be some further downside potential for AUD/USD, although Friday's bullish engulfing day hints at a minor bounce first.

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Today 06:00 AM
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    EUR/USD analysis: Key inflation data in focus

    Inflation is in focus in the week ahead. The German CPI report will come out on Wednesday, a couple of days ahead of the Eurozone numbers on Friday, when we will also have that Core PCE Price index from the US.

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    Yesterday 12:00 PM
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    British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

    It was another strong week for the British Pound as Core CPI came out well-above the expectation, leading to a 1.2750 test in GBP/USD and a 200.00 test in GBP/JPY.

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    Japanese Yen Forecast: Three Reasons the BOJ Won’t Intervene in USD/JPY Again

    USD/JPY remains in a bullish technical posture, with potential for a retest of 160.00 unless the BOJ changes course no interest rates.

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    Gold weekly forecast: Hawkish Fed rates repricing generates asymmetric dovish risks

    The price action in gold last week warns of growing downside risks. But with markets significantly scaling back Fed rate cut bets, it's now up to incoming data to justify why rates should be left on hold. If it can't, it points to US dollar weakness and lower US bond yields, and likely tailwinds for commodity markets.

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    May 25, 2024 06:00 PM
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    Weekly equities forecast: Costco, Salesforce earnings & BP looks to OPEC+

    After a choppy trading week last week, attention this week will be firmly on inflation. Inflation data from the eurozone, Australia, and the US will be released, and the latter could drive worries over high rates for longer. Earnings season is coming to an end, but numbers from Costco and Salesforce will be in focus. OPEC+ is due to meet, which could impact oil prices after they dropped 3.5% last week. Oil majors such as BP track the commodity price.

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    May 25, 2024 12:00 PM
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    Dow Jones Forecast: 39000 Barrier on Hold, Rebound or Drop?

    Dow Jones Forecast: the Dow has fallen back to the lower end of the 39,000-price zone amid hawkish sentiment. What’s next?

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    NASDAQ 100 Forecast: QQQ rises but the recovery could be short -lived

    US stocks are opening higher after losses yesterday when fears over high interest rates for longer overshadowed Nvidia's impressive results. Fears that a strong US economy and sticky inflation could prevent the Fed from loosening monetary policy, combined with lower volumes ahead of the long weekend, could see gains limited.

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    May 24, 2024 11:54 PM
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    S&P 500 outlook: Stocks could resume drop after Thursday’s reversal

    The short-term S&P 500 outlook could turn bearish if we see some downside follow-through below Thursday’s range when it formed a rather large outside candle after the fresh breakout to a new all-time high was met with strong selling, despite Nvidia’s strong showing.

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    USD, yields rise into next week’s PCE inflation: The Week Ahead

    It was a more eventful week than anticipated, thanks to hotter PMI data across Europe and the US, serving as a reminder that inflationary pressures persist. And puts traders on high alert for flash CPI and PCE inflation reports for Europe and the US.

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    May 24, 2024 01:46 PM
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    USD/JPY: Japanese disinflationary pressures build casting doubt over future BOJ hikes

    Be it headline or underlying price pressures, both are experiencing deep disinflation, casting doubt over the ability for the Bank of Japan to deliver more than the one rate hike already delivered.

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    May 24, 2024 10:41 AM
    Gold bars article image for an article on Precious metals and Gold

    Gold, Wall Street slammed as PMI data stifles hopes of Fed rate cuts

    The record highs created for gold and Wall Street this week appear to have been bad omens, with sharp bearish reversals forming and rate-cut bets being slashed.

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