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Research

AUD/USD, copper dragged lower with sentiment, higher US dollar

It has been a turbulent 24 hours for markets with Wall Street indices extending losses, dragging AUD/USD and copper prices lower.

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Yesterday 11:53 AM
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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY analysis: Yes AU unemployment rose, but…

Australian unemployment may have risen, but so did all other key metrics including job growth and the participation rate. And that has likely provided a floor for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY over the near term.

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USD/JPY extends losses on suspected intervention, DXY breaks 200-day MA

Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) appears to be taking full advantage of the path of least resistance by intervening when the US dollar and yields are under pressure. And their latest suspected intervention alongside dovish Fed comments saw USD/JPY break trend support and send DXY below its 200-day MA.

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July 18, 2024 09:18 AM

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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

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EUR/USD Outlook: Attention turns to ECB's policy meeting

The European Central Bank's upcoming policy decision could turn out to be an important event for the EUR/USD pair. While no rate cuts are expected this time, the ECB's stance and any forward guidance will be closely scrutinised. The previous rate cut in June was driven by concerns over economic growth and as inflation showed weakening signs.

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July 17, 2024 11:00 PM
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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY: UK CPI in focus after soft prints from NZ, CA

The UK's 1-month OIS suggests ~48% chance of a 25bp cut from the BOE next month, which means today's inflation report is likely a key driver for GBP/USD on monetary policy expectations.

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July 17, 2024 01:34 PM
Research

AUD/USD probes support, Gold, Dow Jones burst to record highs in style

AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.

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GBP/USD forecast: Technical Tuesday - July 16, 2024

Despite a stronger retail sales print, the tide may have turned on the US dollar following last week's recent data releases and raised expectations over the Fed cutting rates in September. Therefore, my GBP/USD forecast remains bullish, and I reckon the $1.30 handle could be taken out soon.

Research

USD index, USD/JPY show signs of stability, ASX breaks 8000

The post-CPI selloff of the USD has wound down, and price action suggests a bounce cold be due. The ASX has surpassed 8k for the first time on record, and bulls may be keen to seek dips.

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EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week - July 15, 2024

Already cutting rates in June, the European Central Bank will be in focus again this week. This time, no rate cuts are expected from the ECB, which, together with reduced political uncertainty in Europe and weakness in US data, should all help to keep the euro supported against the US dollar, maintaining the short-term EUR/USD forecast in bulls’ favour.

GBP/USD Analysis: Rally Extends Toward Sterling’s 1-Year High at 1.30

GBP/USD could pull back off 1-year highs at 1.3000 given the 17-year high in speculative long positioning, per the CFTC’s COT report.

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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Bulls eye the 200-week EMA

China's third plenum, New Zealand inflation and the Australian labour force report are potential drivers for AUD/USD this week.

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Australian dollar has nothing to do with tech stocks, so why should it track them?

Considering the rally in cyclical assets following the soft US inflation report, the steep reversal in AUD/USD comes across as a little strange. As long as economic growth holds up, the prospect of Fed rate cuts should provide tailwinds for cyclicals. Therefore, the reversal has created a short setup. But not against the US dollar.

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July 12, 2024 09:31 AM
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AUD/USD pinbar shouldn’t deter bulls, USD/JPY gets whacked

It will likely take more than one bearish reversal candle to spoil the bullish trend structure of AUD/USD, and there's plenty of support nearby to excite dip buyers. USD/JPY has likely returned to a shell-socked state after a surge of volatility toppled the pair for a clear break below 160.

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July 12, 2024 08:40 AM
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GBP/USD outlook: Attention turns to US CPI after stronger UK GDP

Unless US CPI now comes in hotter, the GBP/USD outlook should remain positive heading deeper into the summer months. This is especially the case after the cable broke a long-term resistance trend around the 1.28 handle as investors gave Keir Starmer’s progress in his first week as UK Prime Minister the green light and US data weakened last week.

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July 11, 2024 09:00 PM
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EUR/USD firms up ahead of US CPI, gold appears hesitant to reclaim 2400

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

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July 11, 2024 01:24 PM

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GBP/USD eyes 2024 highs ahead of US inflation, UK GDP

GBP/USD has taken out the highs struck in June, pushing further above 1.2800 on Thursday. A test of the 2024 highs now looks to be on the cards. While there is UK data on the calendar, you get the sense it will be the US inflation report later in the session that will determine what happens next for Cable.

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July 11, 2024 12:51 PM
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AUD/USD forecast boosted ahead of US CPI amid technical breakout

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the AUD/USD forecast into focus after it surged through a major long-term resistance trend.

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July 10, 2024 11:13 PM
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NZD/USD: Dovish RBNZ hammers Kiwi, Fed pivot could spark reversal

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not far off cutting interest rates, as long as domestic inflationary pressures allow. That means next week’s June quarter consumer price inflation report could sow the seeds for the RBNZ to begin lowering interest rates as soon as August. NZD/USD has fallen heavily in response.

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July 10, 2024 12:55 PM
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EUR/USD forecast remains mildly bullish as traders await Powell, CPI

The week’s big event is the US CPI data release on Thursday, which might reignite volatility in the FX space. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains only modestly bullish, as it is lacking any significant follow-through.

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July 9, 2024 10:58 PM
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Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

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AUD/USD snaps 4-day streak, ASX 200 remains confined to its range

Price action suggests AUD/USD may need to retrace before resuming its anticipated move to 68c. Jerome Powell speaks to the Senate banking committee, which could be a key driver for the USD dollar and therefor AUD/USD.

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July 9, 2024 09:15 AM