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Forex Friday: Dollar, Pound and Gold
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, pound, euro, gold, and look forward to the week ahead.
NFP blows away estimates. But will it be revised?
The headline print was 517,000 vs an expectations of only 185,000
China’s economy is expanding again, according to official data (USD/CNH)
The National Bureau of Statistics China (NBS) released PMI data this week which shows both the manufacturing and services sector are expanding.
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Four guys walk into a bar before central bank meetings…….
Will the RBA signal that they are going to pause the rate hike cycle?
ECB hikes 50bps, as expected. Another 50bps hike to come in March
During the press conference, Christine Lagarde seemed to be talking out of both sides of her mouth.
BoE’s dovish hike leaves pound in limbo
Investors are wondering whether the BoE was done with hiking...
Big Mac Index explained: using the Big Mac Index in trading
The Big Mac Index is a common measure of exchange rates, but can it be used to make trading decisions? Find out what the Big Mac Index is and how it works.
European Open: EUR/GBP probes YTD high ahead of BOE and ECB meetings
With the Fed having delivered their 25bp yesterday, it is now over to the BOE ECB today, who are expected to hike by 100bp between them.
FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited
Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?
BoE Preview: MPC might be split but 50 bp hike likely
The GBP/USD could be heading to 1.25 if the BoE does not deliver a dovish surprise.
ECB Preview: All about forward guidance
While a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of forward guidance...
How much higher can gold move?
By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.
US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario
Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?
European Open: China’s PMI squeeze in a surprise expansion, GBP/AUD turns higher
China’s PMI beat expectations and expanded, which could give global growth prospects a boost as China continues to reopen
Australia’s retail snails weigh on December's trade figures (again)
Australia’s retail sales were down a lot more than expected in December, suggesting much of the hype had died over the Black Friday Sales and Cyber Sales Monday in November.
Looking to stay away from FED, BOE, and ECB this week? How about AUD/CAD?
Since October 2022 the pair has been moving higher and has recently hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
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Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With the FOMC and the ECB meetings, along with a treasure trove of important economic data from the US and Europe, EUR/USD should be volatile this week.
The top 10 most traded currencies
Learn about the 10 most traded currencies like the dollar, euro and yen and learn why forex traders prefer trading these major currencies
Commitment of traders report (COT):
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.
Is the USD/JPY bearish move becoming ‘long’ in the tooth?
Shorting USD/JPY is not a new idea, and as the pair has erased around half of its 21-month rally, we see the potential for a bounce over the coming weeks.
SARB hikes rates by 25bps; 50bps expected
It appears SARB could have gone with 50bps, but held back due to ongoing load shedding and the hit it may take on the economy.