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Bullish bets on the yen continue to gain traction: COT report

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

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December 2, 2024 04:42 PM
Oil refinery

Crude Oil Week Ahead: OPEC Meeting, Key US Data, and Key Levels

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Wednesday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

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Gold Analysis: Technical Tuesday - November 26, 2024

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

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Oil extraction

WTI Forecast: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Drives Crude Oil Back Toward $69

How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?

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November 26, 2024 06:00 AM
Research

Yen futures gain bullish traction, bears weigh on EUR/USD: COT report

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

Oil refinery

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Upside Risk and Wars vs Sunday's OPEC Meeting

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.

Downwards trend with red arrow

Silver, copper teetering: Bearish breakouts looming?

Can silver and copper hold their ground, or are sharper declines on the horizon? The price action suggests a resumption of the bearish trend could be in the cards.

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November 21, 2024 01:08 PM
Uptrend

Gold, Silver bounce: Is this the start of something bigger?

Gold and silver prices are bouncing back, fuelled by easing pressure from lower US Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. But can the move build into something greater? Here’s what’s driving the price action and the setups worth watching.

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November 20, 2024 11:28 AM
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Gold, Silver eye recovery as US bond yields face near-term headwinds

Gold and silver could be primed for a recovery as US bond yields show signs of consolidation following their rapid climb. With a quiet economic calendar and fewer Fed rate cuts now priced in, a near-term ceiling on yields may shift momentum in favour of precious metals. Here's why this setup could signal a bottom for gold and silver prices.

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November 18, 2024 12:09 PM
Oil refinery

Crude Oil Week Ahead: 4-year Support, G-20 Meeting, Flash PMIs

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.

Graphic of trading data chart

Traders were cautious with USD, gold, VIX ahead of the election: COT report

As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.

Close-up of market chart

Traders flipped to net-short yen, derisked from AUD/USD, gold: COT report

Large speculators joined asset managers with a net-short exposure to yen futures ahead of the BOJ meeting, although their bearish positioning may be ‘short lived’ if the central bank really is a step closer to raising rates. De-risking also appears to be in the air ahead of the US election looking at positioning across AUD/USD, gold and the VIX.

USD_GBP_EUR

EUR/USD flipped to net-short exposure, VIX bulls retain control: COT report

It was another flipping week for futures traders, with the $10.6 billion added to USD longs seeing the dollar flip to net-long exposure, large speculators revert to net-short EUR/USD and asset managers flip to net-short JPY/USD exposure.

Research

Asset managers flipped to net-long VIX exposure, USD positioning mixed: COT report

Bullish bets for the VIX continued to rise, which saw asset managers flip to net-long exposure and large speculators close to doing so themselves. Bullish interest for the USD index also rose alongside prices, yet traders shied away from cured oil and were more bearish on commodity FX. Positioning was also mixed across Wall Street indices.

Research

USD, JPY, AUD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

Long bets and speculative volumes crept higher on JPY futures, while gross-longs on AUD futures increased at the fastest pace in nine years. Bullish signs are also apparent on crude oil futures, and we suspect gold bulls may want to tread with caution going forward.

Oil refinery

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Over Supply Fears vs Middle East Battles

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oil prices face uncertainty as OPEC's potential December output hike awaits support in Wednesday's meeting. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions and political assassinations heighten concerns of a regional conflict.

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September 29, 2024 11:00 PM
Research

Being short USD looks like a stale trade: COT report

There has been a lot of hype over a dovish Fed, for quite some time. Yet asset managers (real money accounts) remain net long. I suspect we're a lot closer to the end of the USD bear case than the beginning.

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September 16, 2024 02:48 PM

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Short bets against the USD continued to pile up: COT Report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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Gold forecast: Fed rate cuts may deliver a bust for bullion bulls

Even though lower borrowing costs and a weaker US dollar would normally boost the gold price, in the near-term, rate cuts – be they big or small – may deliver a bust for bullion bulls.

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September 5, 2024 03:32 PM
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Crude Oil Update: Oil Slips Below the Critical $70 Zone

Crude Oil Update: Bearish pressures have driven oil prices back below the $70 barrier, erasing 2024 gains. This drop follows weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI results from China and the US, coupled with the risk of increased output. Will there be another intervention?

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US recession risk may determine whether crude oil’s bearish break sticks

Having broken key support on the back of big volumes, WTI crude oil may need to reverse quickly to limit the risk of even greater downside ahead. With market focus squarely on economic activity in the world’s largest crude consumer, the United States, upcoming data on the health of the labour market could spark a meaningful move in the days ahead.

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September 4, 2024 01:21 PM
Research

Futures traders flipped to net-short USD exposure: COT report

Traders flipped to net-short USD exposure last week for the first time since February. Yet asset managers and large speculators remains net-long the USD index.

Oil refinery

Crude Oil Outlook: Entering the Rate Cut Month

Crude Oil Outlook: As we step into the anticipated rate cut month, the positive market sentiment may have already been priced in, with OPEC policies looming on the horizon and heavily influencing oil prices. The key question remains: Will oil break out of its 1-year consolidation this month?