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Energy

Crude oil surge lacks conviction, seeking reversal signal to initiate shorts

Crude oil surges 8% in four sessions. But volumes were nowhere near as bullish as the price action would suggest. Given its struggles above these levels, waiting for a topping pattern to go short is favoured.

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June 11, 2024 09:40 AM
Research

USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).

Quarry and various stones

Iron ore may have bottomed as trading volumes surge

Iron ore futures are climbing off the canvas after a rough trot, surging higher on Thursday on the back of large gains in Chinese steel markets. But the reason behind the sudden buying burst makes you question whether the move will last, especially with inventories incredibly bloated relative to seasonal norms.

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June 7, 2024 09:03 AM

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Oil extraction

Crude oil reverses hard on improved demand outlook, delivering bullish technical signal

With a solid US ISM services PMI print and rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC) helping to fuel the soft-landing narrative, the rout in WTI crude oil reversed on Wednesday, delivering a bullish technical pattern that points to the potential of further gains ahead.

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June 6, 2024 08:43 AM
Oil rig on an grey day

Demand to drive WTI crude moves with supply-side now accounted for

Last week’s candle on the WTI crude chart provided an obvious signal on directional risks that came to the fore on Monday, combining with weak economic data out of the United States and belated surprise that OPEC+ will boost production levels later this year to send the price hurtling to lows not seen since February.

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June 4, 2024 04:35 PM
Energy

WTI crude softens post OPEC+, back in the sweet spot for bulls

An extension of deep and prolonged production cuts from OPEC has failed to ignite a rally in crude oil futures with prices sinking for a fourth consecutive session. However, with WTI returning to what’s been a reliable zone for bulls in the first five months of the year, these levels may prove tempting for those looking for a bounce given favorable risk-reward.

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June 3, 2024 10:31 AM
Quarry and various stones

Iron ore keeps finding buyers despite ballooning Chinese port inventories

Despite bourgeoning Chinese port inventories, widespread loss making at steel mills and no guarantee that measures to stablise China’s property market will drive increased construction activity, there’s seemingly no shortage of willing buyers of iron ore out there right now.

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May 30, 2024 12:31 PM

Significant trading volumes on the VIX hints at cycle low: COT report

When open interest on the VIX rises at its second largest weekly pace on record, it’s best to take notice. Especially when it reached a 5-year low before snapping a 4-week losing streak. We also take a look at positioning on the USD index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, gold and WTI crude oil.

gold_09

Gold weekly forecast: Hawkish Fed rates repricing generates asymmetric dovish risks

The price action in gold last week warns of growing downside risks. But with markets significantly scaling back Fed rate cut bets, it's now up to incoming data to justify why rates should be left on hold. If it can't, it points to US dollar weakness and lower US bond yields, and likely tailwinds for commodity markets.

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May 25, 2024 06:00 PM
Oil rig in the sea

WTI crude slides to range lows, nears sweet spot for longer-term bulls

The pullback has seen WTI move into what’s a been a very decent buying zone in recent years, providing an opportunity to establish longs at lower levels.

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May 23, 2024 03:42 PM
Gold bars article image for an article on Precious metals and Gold

Gold, Silver Forecast: “Perfect Storm” Drives Gold and Silver to Cycle Highs – Where Next?

Gold’s outlook remains constructive heading into resistance in the $2460-2500 zone, and Silver is in an even more bullish technical position, with a bullish bias in place above $30.

Forex trading

USD, CAD, Gold, Copper, VIX, Wall Street analysis: COT report

Asset managers reached a record level of net-short exposure to VIX futures, days before prices fell to a record low. Traders also remain net-long USD despite losses in recent weeks.

Energy

Crude oil weekly forecast: WTI range under threat as bullish momentum builds

Monday could set the tone given the bullish price action seen across the commodities complex on Friday as China announced a rescue package for its troubled property sector. If the momentum can be maintained, there’s every chance WTI may break downtrend resistance dating back to the highs set in April.

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May 20, 2024 12:00 AM
Gold nuggets

Gold Forecast: XAU/USD Nears Record Highs as “Year of Metals” Continues

Gold remains in a clearly bullish structure, with all eyes on XAU/USD's record highs in the $2420-30 zone.

Quarry and various stones

Be cautious chasing COMEX copper higher with big bears lurking above $5

The upside in copper flagged last week has played out nicely, delivering a fresh contract high for the red metal on COMEX futures. However, the price action over the latter parts of this week has not been convincing, warning of growing near-term downside risk.

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May 17, 2024 08:58 AM
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Futures traders reduce yen speculation after BOJ intervention: COT report

With asset managers and large speculators trimming long and short exposure to yen futures, their appetite to speculate on the currency appears to be waning after BOJ interventions.

Crude Oil Forecast: The Two Key Reasons WTI and Brent Oil Are Breaking Support Levels

Rising inventories and a recovery in the US dollar are driving the latest bout of weakness in WTI and Brent crude oil prices.

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Gold rebound stalls as key market drivers go AWOL

Gold continues to consolidate below just record highs, paying scant attention to movements in other markets and geopolitical headlines since the start of May. As such, until we receive a definitive signal on direction, range trading is favoured near-term.

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May 7, 2024 01:18 PM
Research

US dollar, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX analysis: COT report

The BOJ's intervention prevented large speculators from reaching a record level of net-short exposure, asset managers continued to trim net-long exposure to the US dollar and US indices and also flipped to net-long the VIX.

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Gold analysis: Metal ready to take off again?

Gold analysis: Metal remains fundamentally support, so we could see a renewed rally. This week’s macro highlights include FOMC policy decision, NFP and ISM PMIs. Gold technical analysis shows prices respecting the 21-day exponential moving average.

Research

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flip to net-short, JPY shorts near record high: COT report

There seems to be no fear in shorting then yen, given large speculators pushed net-short exposure to the second highest level on record last week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also flipped to net-short exposure.

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US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities

Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.

Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.