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AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap

AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.

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February 19, 2024 07:00 AM
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AUD/JPY falters at key highs once more as AU unemployment rises

Australia's unemployment rose to a three year to knock AUD pairs from their perches. But in particular I'm keeping an eye on AUD/JPY which has reversed at a key resistance area.

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February 15, 2024 01:19 PM
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Australia’s ASX 200 vulnerable on shakeout of soft-landing bets

Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.

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February 14, 2024 01:44 PM

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: US inflation, AU jobs figures to drive AUD

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.

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AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer

Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.

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February 6, 2024 12:04 PM
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AUD/USD, EUR/AUD: The Australian dollar trading poorly despite macro tailwinds

The Australian dollar was given every excuse to rally on Wednesday and couldn't, finishing the session lower than where it started. Telling.

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January 25, 2024 10:26 AM
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ASX 200 priced for perfection nearing tricky technical test

Australia’s ASX 200 is rallying for a fourth session on the back of big gains in banks, healthcare and record highs on Wall Street, seeing it approach what some may declare to be a “death zone” for bulls based on price action of recent years.

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January 23, 2024 12:22 PM
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ASX 200 forecast: Forward testing the ASX 200 around Australia Day

Forward returns look at the historical performance of an asset around key dates or times. In this article, we look at how the ASX 200 has performed in the three days before and after Australia day.

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January 22, 2024 05:15 PM
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ASX 200 forecast: Do many bulls remain at these highs?

Once again we have seen the ASX 200 turn lower after a failed attempt to break above 7700. And when you consider the ASX has fallen double digits in percentage term from these highs, it is worth paying attention to.

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January 16, 2024 12:37 PM
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AUD/USD: Sticky domestic price pressures to collide with US disinflation narrative

The AUD/USD's global focus may pause temporarily later this week when Australia’s inflation indicator is released, containing a whole raft of new information on what’s happening with prices at the consumer level, especially for services.

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January 9, 2024 02:41 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

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October 19, 2023 09:23 AM
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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Softening macro backdrop, BOJ threat amplify downside risks

The combination of a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, the first monetary policy decision from a new RBA governor and threat of market intervention from the Bank of Japan has created an interesting mix for the AUD/JPY.

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October 3, 2023 02:00 PM
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ASX 200 analysis: Like it or not, it’s holding above 7k post CPI

The ASX 200 has continued to show resilience around the key 7,000 support level, despite the surge on bond yields, negative sentiment and rising inflation. What if sentiment improves?

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September 27, 2023 01:04 PM
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AUD/USD: focus on underlying inflation, fade moves on headline volatility

In an environment of heightened risk aversion, sluggish global economic growth and continued grind higher in rates, a volatile monthly inflation indicator from Australia doesn’t scream as overly important.

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September 27, 2023 09:11 AM
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ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index

An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

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September 20, 2023 12:39 PM
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AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge

Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.

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September 14, 2023 12:26 PM
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AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point

AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.

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September 11, 2023 12:44 PM

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ASX 200: Bearish technical signals point to growing downside risks

Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.

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September 8, 2023 12:21 PM
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AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause

With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.

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September 5, 2023 03:43 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates

A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.

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September 4, 2023 11:37 AM
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AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks

AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates

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August 30, 2023 12:28 PM
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AUD/USD: Powell positioning provides fuel for a bounce

Everyone hates the Australian dollar but loves the USD: a risk heading into Jackson Hole?

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August 25, 2023 12:17 PM
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AUD/USD: reversal risk builds ahead of Jackson Hole

Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.

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August 23, 2023 11:16 AM