EUR/USD
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FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
ECB Preview: All about forward guidance
While a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of forward guidance...
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, USD/CAD
EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ GDP data. USD/CAD rises on Fed jitters, falling oil & ahead of CAD GDP.
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Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With the FOMC and the ECB meetings, along with a treasure trove of important economic data from the US and Europe, EUR/USD should be volatile this week.
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.
Forex Friday: USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, pound and euro, and look forward to the big central bank meetings in the week ahead.
What does it mean for the Fed if Core PCE comes out weaker than expected?
If the print is “as expected”, will this be enough of a drop for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its February meeting?
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, FTSE
EUR/USD rises ahead of EZ consumer confidence on hawkish ECB chatter. FTSE rises cautiously at the start of the week.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Oil
EUR/USD rises with Lagarde in focus. Oil falls as recession fears build.
Softer US data sends US Dollar lower
If the data continues to come out weak for the US, it could mean a move dovish Fed than expected.
Two trades to watch: FTSE, EUR/USD
FTSE falls after weak Chinese growth & as UK wages rise. EUR/USD looks to German ZEW economic sentiment data.
US December CPI drops to 6.5% YoY; lowest level since October 2021
The December MoM CPI print was -0.1% . This is the first decline in the MoM print since May 2020!
US Data Dump dominates central banks
With Thursday’s poor economic data and the Fed still hiking rates (albeit at a slower pace), a recession may be in the cards for the US!
US CPI surprises for the second month in a row. What does it mean for the Fed?
Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!
US CPI Preview: Will Tuesday’s CPI affect the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday?
The risk to the CPI data is that it is much lower than expected.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, FTSE
EUR/USD rises ahead of Lagarde, jobless claims. FTSE struggles on recession fears & despite China reopening.
US Core PCE lower in September; USD continues lower
If Core PCE continues to fall over the coming months, the Fed may end up hiking rates less than it expects, or even cutting rates before the end of next year.
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European Open: Double top forms on EUR/USD
The US dollar has found some stability following hawkish comments from Fed members, which has seen a double top pattern form on EUR/USD’s daily chart.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Oil
EUR/USD rises above 1.04 ahead of ECB minutes & German IFO business sentiment. Oil steadies after a steep fall.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Oil
EUR/USD falls as German PPI plunges & on safe haven USD demand. Oil falls on China COVID fears.
Philly Fed continues to fall; US Dollar doesn’t seem concerned
US Dollar bears may be looking for higher levels to sell, while EUR/USD bulls may be looking for better levels to buy.
Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD
GBP/USD rises ahead of the Chancellor’s Budget. EUR/USD holds steady ahead of Eurozone inflation data