EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trying to stage a bounce off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-June to mid-July rally

While the euro has struggled, the Japanese yen continues to roar back higher. The strengthening yen is a reflection of tightening of bond yield spread between Japan and the rest of the world, after ballooning following the years of excessive expansionary monetary policy in Japan while the rest of the world pursued a sharp contractionary policy to combat surging inflation.

USD/JPY falls to a monthly low. EUR/USD falls after PMI data missed forecasts.

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: the DXY and EURUSD are respecting potential consolidation boundaries, with the DXY back in the 104 zone, and the EURUSD back below 1.09.

In this week's EUR/USD outlook, we see important macro events in the days ahead which could set the short-term tone for this and other major FX pairs. But first, we will begin by looking at the chart to remind ourselves of the trend.

Our EUR/USD forecast remains bullish but in light of the dollar recovery and the mild risk-off sentiment, we wouldn’t rule out some further short-term weakness after rates fell back below the 1.09 handle following the ECB’s rate decision. The week ahead promises to be an important one for the FX markets, with the release of global PMIs, US GDP and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure.

EUR/USD looks to the ECB rate decision. GBP/USD eases after wage growth keeps August rate cut hopes alive.

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

The sustainability of the US disinflationary trajectory towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be tested today with the release of the June CPI indicator

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

The week’s big event is the US CPI data release on Thursday, which might reignite volatility in the FX space. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains only modestly bullish, as it is lacking any significant follow-through.

EUR/USD holds above 1.08 amid French political uncertainty & ahead of Powell’s testimony. GBP/USD holds steady after last week's election & after a cautious BoE Haskel.

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

EURUSD Outlook: Despite the bearish impact of political and economic uncertainty in the EU, EURUSD is holding at a bullish end amid Fed rate cut bets

Crude Oil, EURUSD Forecast: Oil hovers at the upper edge of its consolidation, while EURUSD surges towards it.

GBP/USD rises on General Election Day. EUR/USD rises to a 3-week high, ECB minutes are due.

EUR/USD is rallying toward the key 1.0800 level that could set the tone for the rest of the month ahead of the NFP report.