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AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap

AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.

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February 19, 2024 07:00 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA

The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.

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February 6, 2024 05:14 PM
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AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer

Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.

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February 6, 2024 12:04 PM

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USD extends its lead on hot ISM report, RBA up next for AUD, ASX traders

An inflationary ISM report saw bets of multiple Fed cuts reduced to send the US dollar index to an 11-week high. If the RBA come out with a dovish meeting today, AUD/USD could be headed for 64c.

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February 6, 2024 09:19 AM
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EUR/AUD winning streak faces upside test ahead of RBA decision

EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.

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February 5, 2024 01:03 PM
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Powell, RBA rate decision in focus

Monday could be off to a volatile start if Jerome Powell’s 60-minutes interview causes a stir for global markets. Whilst the RBA meeting, press conference and updated forecasts could drive sentiment for AUD and the ASX next week

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February 2, 2024 06:00 PM
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AUD monthly outlook: February 2024

AUD/USD suffered its worst month in 11 in January, after traders scaled back bets of several Fed cuts this year which helped the US dollar rally and force AUD/USD -3.5% lower for the month. The focus now shifts to next week's RBA meeting.

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February 1, 2024 02:27 PM
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Growing risk RBA may cut rates before the Federal Reserve

There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.

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January 31, 2024 01:30 PM
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AUD/USD falls, ASX probes record high on soft CPI figures, RBA-cut bets

Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.

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January 31, 2024 12:31 PM
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AUD/USD: Sticky domestic price pressures to collide with US disinflation narrative

The AUD/USD's global focus may pause temporarily later this week when Australia’s inflation indicator is released, containing a whole raft of new information on what’s happening with prices at the consumer level, especially for services.

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January 9, 2024 02:41 PM
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AUD/USD: On the lookout for hawkish signals in the RBA meeting minutes

The tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes has come across as more hawkish than that of the monthly monetary policy statement under the leadership of Michele Bullock as Governor, pointing to the risk of a similar outcome when the minutes of the RBA’s December meeting are released later Tuesday.

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December 19, 2023 09:28 AM
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AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report just the tonic for RBA policy inaction

Booming jobs growth, record labour force participation and a gradual loosening of labour market conditions with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%. For policymakers attempting to deliver a soft economic landing, Australia’s jobs report for November could barely have been better.

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December 14, 2023 12:19 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Three-peat of hawkish disappointment under the RBA’s new leadership

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

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December 5, 2023 03:23 PM
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AUD monthly wrap: December 2023

AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?

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December 1, 2023 02:59 PM
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AUD/USD threatening key level on slow progress in taming underlying inflation pressures

Headline Australian CPI undershot market expectations in October, although progress on taming underlying price pressures was disappointing, helping to boost AUD/USD.

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November 29, 2023 12:23 PM
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AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

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November 21, 2023 12:47 PM
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Bond auctions could trump data next week: The Week Ahead

In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.

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November 17, 2023 02:32 PM

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GBP/AUD: Central bank divergence put to the test as risk laden week begins

With plenty of major data and central bank speeches scheduled in the UK and Australia this week, the next few days may prove to be critical for the medium-term trajectory for GBP/AUD heading into 2024.

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November 13, 2023 11:52 AM
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AUD/USD: Tumbles as RBA rate hike bets slashed, eyes fresh 2023 lows

Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.

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October 26, 2023 09:59 AM
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AUD/USD higher, ASX 200 lower as hot inflation bolsters RBA rate hike bets

Australian inflation has come in hot in Q3, seeing the odds for a RBA rate hike in November lift to 60%. The AUD/USD has moved higher while the ASX 200 has reversed earlier gains, turning negative for the session.

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October 25, 2023 12:10 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: A quick guide on what to watch in today’s Australian inflation report

When you look back through the history books, no other economic data release is more important for the AUD and ASX than Australia’s quarterly consumer price inflation report. Today will be no exception.

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October 25, 2023 08:45 AM
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AUD/JPY, WTI crude oil: Israel-Hamas conflict, inflation reports to set the tone

Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.

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October 23, 2023 10:13 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

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October 19, 2023 09:23 AM