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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
British Pound Analysis: Will GBP/USD’s Imminent Golden Cross Take it Above 1.2725?
GBP/USD is soaring on expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2024, despite Fed Chairman Powell’s protestations...
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
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AUD/USD, gold stall around key levels ahead of US inflation: Asian Open
The US PCE inflation report is arguably the event of the week, and with traders having vigorously sold the US dollar ahead of it I am left wondering if it is a case of ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact’ – especially if it comes on hot. And with AUD/USD and gold stalling around key levels on Wednesday, the potential for mean reversion seems apparent.
AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open
With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.
EUR/USD analysis: Technical Tuesday – Nov 28, 2023
Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.
Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report
When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.
EUR/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – Nov 27, 2023
EUR/USD outlook supported by weakening US dollar, which will be put under the spotlight by GDP and core PCE inflation data this week. Weaker Eurozone inflation data could paradoxically lift EUR/USD to 1.10 as technical analysis shows path of least resistance remains to the upside.
GBP/USD bulls eye move to 1.27: European open – Nov 27, 2023
GBP/USD has continued to take advantage of a weaker US dollar and rise to an 11-week high. And with a high level of volume activity overhead, we see the potential for a move to 1.27.
USD/JPY bulls eye break of 150, Crude oil is flat for the year: Asian Open
A sharp reversal on USD/JPY last week brings a potential break above 150 in to focus, assuming the US dollar can find a bid and USD/CNH continues to hold above its 200-day MA. Meanwhile, crude oil has handed back all of its 2023 gains and it is a very fine line before the bias for a move to $80 becomes invalidated.
GBP/USD outlook: Cable climbs to 1.26 handle
GBP/USD outlook: Next week US data will include GDP and PCE inflation, as pound finds support with UK services returning to growth. GBP/USD technical analysis point higher.
US dollar analysis: EUR/USD, NZD/USD - Forex Friday
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar, EUR/USD and NZD/USD ahead of next week's key macro events.
GBP/USD analysis: Cable rebounds on strong PMI data
The UK services was back in growth territory to appease the GBP traders and there was no Turkey for US dollar bulls, with the Greenback fading after Wednesday’s recovery. GBP/USD technical analysis suggests path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Crude oil, GBP/USD analysis: OPEC delays meeting as US data lifts dollar
What does the OPEC+ delaying meeting means for oil prices? And GBP/USD is in focus as pound drops after autumn statement. But was that because of the overall recovery in US dollar, following the release of mostly stronger data?
US dollar bears running out of steam? AUD/USD, USD/JPY: Asian Open
We watched with bated breath to see if USD/CNH would break its 200-day average on Tuesday and pave the way for the next bout of US dollar weakness. Yet with that key level holding as support, it leaves room for some US dollar strength, a higher USD/JPY and weaker AUD/USD.
USD/CAD analysis: Canadian CPI, FOMC minutes puts Loonie in sharp focus
The USD/CAD is an interesting pair to watch as it tests a major support area ahead of the release of Canadian inflation data and FOMC minutes later.
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AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues
There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?
AUD/USD, RBA mins in focus, Nasdaq tracks Thanksgiving seasonality: Asian Open
We're on the lookout for any hawkish undertone in today's RBA minutes - given the RBA's statement was deemed to be less hawkish than expected. Failure to do so could see AUD/USD hand back some of it's gains. The Nasdaq is also following its seasonaly tendency to rise into Thanksgiving.
Euro to US dollar analysis: EUR/USD outlook in focus - Currency Pair of the Week
The EUR/USD is likely to be among the more active currency pairs this week, which I am expecting to potentially rise to 1.10 handle amid improved risk sentiment and recent falls in US yields and dollar. Although the economic situation in the eurozone remains far from convincing, markets may have gotten ahead of itself with regards to ECB rate cuts being priced in as early as April.
US dollar index approaches its 200-day MA as EUR/USD eyes resistance
With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023
EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.
AUD/USD, USD/JPY forecast: Asian Open – Nov 20, 2023
With a bullish engulfing week and day for AUD/USD on Friday, can the Aussie muster up the strength for a breakout above key resistance? And if losses on USD/CNH are anything to go by, perhaps USD/JPY is preparing to follow suit.