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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).


AUD/USD weekly outlook: Bulls eye the 200-week EMA

China's third plenum, New Zealand inflation and the Australian labour force report are potential drivers for AUD/USD this week.

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Australian dollar has nothing to do with tech stocks, so why should it track them?

Considering the rally in cyclical assets following the soft US inflation report, the steep reversal in AUD/USD comes across as a little strange. As long as economic growth holds up, the prospect of Fed rate cuts should provide tailwinds for cyclicals. Therefore, the reversal has created a short setup. But not against the US dollar.

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July 12, 2024 09:31 AM

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AUD/USD pinbar shouldn’t deter bulls, USD/JPY gets whacked

It will likely take more than one bearish reversal candle to spoil the bullish trend structure of AUD/USD, and there's plenty of support nearby to excite dip buyers. USD/JPY has likely returned to a shell-socked state after a surge of volatility toppled the pair for a clear break below 160.

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July 12, 2024 08:40 AM
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GBP/USD outlook: Attention turns to US CPI after stronger UK GDP

Unless US CPI now comes in hotter, the GBP/USD outlook should remain positive heading deeper into the summer months. This is especially the case after the cable broke a long-term resistance trend around the 1.28 handle as investors gave Keir Starmer’s progress in his first week as UK Prime Minister the green light and US data weakened last week.

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July 11, 2024 09:00 PM

EUR/USD firms up ahead of US CPI, gold appears hesitant to reclaim 2400

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

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July 11, 2024 01:24 PM
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GBP/USD eyes 2024 highs ahead of US inflation, UK GDP

GBP/USD has taken out the highs struck in June, pushing further above 1.2800 on Thursday. A test of the 2024 highs now looks to be on the cards. While there is UK data on the calendar, you get the sense it will be the US inflation report later in the session that will determine what happens next for Cable.

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July 11, 2024 12:51 PM
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AUD/USD forecast boosted ahead of US CPI amid technical breakout

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the AUD/USD forecast into focus after it surged through a major long-term resistance trend.

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July 10, 2024 11:13 PM
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NZD/USD: Dovish RBNZ hammers Kiwi, Fed pivot could spark reversal

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not far off cutting interest rates, as long as domestic inflationary pressures allow. That means next week’s June quarter consumer price inflation report could sow the seeds for the RBNZ to begin lowering interest rates as soon as August. NZD/USD has fallen heavily in response.

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July 10, 2024 12:55 PM
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EUR/USD forecast remains mildly bullish as traders await Powell, CPI

The week’s big event is the US CPI data release on Thursday, which might reignite volatility in the FX space. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains only modestly bullish, as it is lacking any significant follow-through.

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July 9, 2024 10:58 PM

Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

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AUD/USD snaps 4-day streak, ASX 200 remains confined to its range

Price action suggests AUD/USD may need to retrace before resuming its anticipated move to 68c. Jerome Powell speaks to the Senate banking committee, which could be a key driver for the USD dollar and therefor AUD/USD.

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July 9, 2024 09:15 AM
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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Out, Tests 2024 High

AUD/USD is benefitting from speculation about another interest rate hike from the RBA after a higher-than-expected CPI report and strong retail sales figure - see the key levels to watch from here!


GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – July 8, 2024

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the GBP/USD forecast into focus. Thus, a clearer trend for the US dollar could emerge this week, after the greenback fell across the board last week.

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NZD/USD: RBNZ statement likely to be short and not so sweet

The bullish NZD/USD breakout flagged last week has come to fruition with the trade target of .6150 reached. With the price holding around the level, we look at potential trades ahead of key events including Jerome Powell’s appearance before the US Senate on Tuesday, the RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday and key US inflation data on Thursday.

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July 8, 2024 01:36 PM

US dollar remains on backfoot, GBP/USD to retest March highs?

In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell, it’s questionable whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week. GBP/USD is one pair that may be able to capitalise on dollar softness, putting a potential retest of the March highs into play.

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July 8, 2024 10:26 AM

AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie’s breakout could have legs

Jerome Powell's testimony, RBA head of economics speech and US CPI all have the potential to drive AUD/USD next week. But looking at the strength of the Aussie's breakout, dips may look appealing to bulls.

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USD/JPY forecast: What a hawkish Fed giveth, a dovish Fed can taketh away

After a rare reversal in USD/JPY to start July, traders should be on the lookout for any follow through selling as expectations for Fed rate cuts this year swell. Considering higher US yields helped to propel the dollar higher, if you take that away, can the prevailing trend realty be maintained?

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July 7, 2024 12:00 AM
Forex trading

EUR/USD forecast: After a mixed-bag jobs report focus turns to CPI – Forex Friday

Following a mixed US non-farm payrolls report, the US dollar fell, boosting metals and tech stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, and META to new highs. European indices dropped ahead of the French vote, limiting the euro's gains. The EUR/USD forecast may change based on the French vote outcome, while the upcoming US CPI release could influence the likelihood of a September rate cut.


Powell testimony, US CPI, RBNZ and French Election: The Week Ahead

Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.


AUD/USD: Zoom out if in doubt for signals on directional risks

It’s an old saying in trading but so often very true, helping to eliminate noise to provide a more definitive price signal. You can’t miss that in the weekly AUD/USD chart with a bullish breakout clearly playing out, unless the US jobs report is a stunner.

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July 5, 2024 01:18 PM

GBP/USD: Thumping Labour election victory? Meh, wake me up for payrolls

Labour has secured a thumping victory in the UK general election. GBP/USD is unmoved on the news, reflecting the result was priced in months ago. But the lack of volatility is also explained by its on the charts. It sits at an important level, making today’s June US nonfarm payrolls report a potential catalyst for a sizeable market move.


USD/JPY, USD/CNH: US economic exceptionalism narrative faces major test

You get the feeling it’s only the US jobs market standing in the way between the Fed and the next easing cycle. That makes this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report even more important, especially for markets that have been heavily impacted by rate differentials such as USD/JPY and USD/CNH.

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July 4, 2024 01:43 PM