AUD USD

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.

US CPI was higher than expected, although bond yields pulled back in what could be a sign that investors are more concerned over a recession compare with a 'soft landing' for the US. But if yields continue to pull back it might take some steam out of the dollar rally. And that could help AUD/USD, which has remained reliant to breaks below 64c.

AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.

Whilst AUD/USD has held above key support levels despite a slew of weak data from China, large speculators and asset managers have increased their bearish bets against it. Bears are also making more of a presence against EUR/USD, and large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to JPY futures by ~50% last week.

Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.

Using the TLT EFT to track the risk of higher US bond yields, increased market volatility and a stronger US dollar.

Asian equity markets were lower following China's trade data, yet US yields and the dollar pulled back to help AUD/USD hold above its cycle lows. I continue to suspect EUR/JPY has topped out on the daily chart, and today highlight a potential short setup beneath a resistance zone.

Jerome Powell delivered a slightly more hawkish message than expected at Jackson Hole, by suggesting that the Fed may need to raise rates at least one more time. This helped the US dollar rise for a sixth week and send the 2-year yield to a 17-year high. Still, we see the potential for AUD/USD to hold above key support and WTI crude oil rise to $82.

Everyone hates the Australian dollar but loves the USD: a risk heading into Jackson Hole?

Flash PMIs dominated sentiment across the European and US sessions with downside disappointments. The US dollar index (DXY) topped just below 104 and closed back beneath the July high, hinting at a false break ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. And this saw EUR/USD rebound from 1.08 and AUD/USD and gold bears continue to cover shorts.

Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.

The Jackson Hole symposium, an annual economic policy conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has arrived. And Jerome Powell's speech will be the highlight. We look at what impact it could have on AUD/USD.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.

It was not the best week for Australian markets, with the ASX 200 suffering its worst week in nearly a year and AUD/USD trading lower for a fifth consecutive week (its first such bearish sequence since October). Today’s question is whether we’ll see a reprieve and if Beijing will unleash the vast amounts of stimulus investors are clearly craving.

The risk-off tone of the week continued through to European and US sessions yesterday, with Wall Street indices falling for a third consecutive day. However, perhaps there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel in hopes of stimulus. And with the US 2-year yield struggling to break 5% and the US dollar index stalling at the June high, perhaps there's some hope for AUD/USD just yet.

Stocks are sliding, bonds are being battered. But a shift in FX markets points to a potential near-term reversal.