AUD/USD

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.

Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.

The US dollar snapped a 6-day winning streak to allow AUD/USD to rebound from 64c in line with yesterday’s bias. And if AU employment figures perform today, it could extend its gains for a second day.

A risk-off tone ensued across global markets to send the US dollar higher, to the detriment of AUD/USD and the ASX 200.

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

1-day implied volatility levels for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and NZD/USD have blown out ahead of today’s key events, which includes comments from BOJ’s governor, and RBNZ cash rate decision and the US inflation report.

Momentum is turning higher for AUD/USD during a month that tends to promote positive returns, and gold bulls continue to dominate price action as it reaches yet another record high.

US dollar bears wasted no time to short the buck after a soft ISM services report, to mark its second worst day this year - in a month usually associated with losses.

An increase of bearish bets against AUD/USD pushed net-short exposure to a record high among large speculators.

AUD/USD is threatening to break the uptrend it’s been in since October, failing to find traction despite what was the largest coordinated central bank dovish pivot since the start of the pandemic last week. With little event risk on the calendar, the fortunes of AUD/USD may be determined by USD/CNY following a dramatic end to trade in Chinese markets on Friday.

Due to the shorter trading week, we take a look at how AUD/USD has performed around Easter over the past 30 years.

Over the past few hours we have seen the Fed hint at multiple cuts this year, and Australian employment data outperform to send AUD/USD above 66c.

US yields dragged the US dollar lower as the Fed continued to favour three cuts this year, helping AUD/USD break back above its 200-day MA ahead of today's employment figures.

With no imminent reason for the RBA to hike or cut, the 4.35% cash rate seems here to stay. But the removal of their slight tightening bias weighed on AUD/USD.

1-day implied volatility for USD/JPY has risen to 320% of its 20-day average ahead of today's BOJ meeting, to show volatility is expected. And the best chance of AUD/USD enjoying its own volatility is if the RBA finally ditch their hawkish bias.

AUD/USD looks heavy on the charts, weighed down by tumbling iron ore and coal prices and widening interest rate differentials with the United States.

AUD/USD held above its 200-day EMA and shows the potential to bounce today, alongside gold - despite the fact it snapped its 9-day winning streak.