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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY analysis: Yes AU unemployment rose, but…

Australian unemployment may have risen, but so did all other key metrics including job growth and the participation rate. And that has likely provided a floor for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY over the near term.


AUD/USD probes support, Gold, Dow Jones burst to record highs in style

AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.

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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Bulls eye the 200-week EMA

China's third plenum, New Zealand inflation and the Australian labour force report are potential drivers for AUD/USD this week.

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AUD/USD pinbar shouldn’t deter bulls, USD/JPY gets whacked

It will likely take more than one bearish reversal candle to spoil the bullish trend structure of AUD/USD, and there's plenty of support nearby to excite dip buyers. USD/JPY has likely returned to a shell-socked state after a surge of volatility toppled the pair for a clear break below 160.

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July 12, 2024 08:40 AM
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AUD/USD forecast boosted ahead of US CPI amid technical breakout

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the AUD/USD forecast into focus after it surged through a major long-term resistance trend.

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July 10, 2024 11:13 PM

Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

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AUD/USD snaps 4-day streak, ASX 200 remains confined to its range

Price action suggests AUD/USD may need to retrace before resuming its anticipated move to 68c. Jerome Powell speaks to the Senate banking committee, which could be a key driver for the USD dollar and therefor AUD/USD.

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July 9, 2024 09:15 AM
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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Out, Tests 2024 High

AUD/USD is benefitting from speculation about another interest rate hike from the RBA after a higher-than-expected CPI report and strong retail sales figure - see the key levels to watch from here!


AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie’s breakout could have legs

Jerome Powell's testimony, RBA head of economics speech and US CPI all have the potential to drive AUD/USD next week. But looking at the strength of the Aussie's breakout, dips may look appealing to bulls.


AUD/USD: Zoom out if in doubt for signals on directional risks

It’s an old saying in trading but so often very true, helping to eliminate noise to provide a more definitive price signal. You can’t miss that in the weekly AUD/USD chart with a bullish breakout clearly playing out, unless the US jobs report is a stunner.

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July 5, 2024 01:18 PM

USD index slumps as weak ISM gifts AUD/USD its breakout ahead of NFP

A softer-than-expected ISM services report was the gift that Fed doves have been waiting for ahead of tomorrow's NFP report. The USD index is now on track for a 3-week reversal pattern below resistance, and AUD/USD has broken out in style.

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July 4, 2024 08:10 AM

AUD/USD forecast takes a huge boost

The AUD/USD forecast took another boost after holding its own well on the back of a hawkish-leaning RBA minutes and hotter-than-expected Australian inflation report last week, after the latest US macro data all pointed to a weakening US economy and boosting the odds of a September Fed rate cut.

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July 4, 2024 01:50 AM

AUD/USD gains on bullish data but USD/CNH may determine whether it lasts

Bargain hunting by consumers and signs of a bottoming in housing construction have bolstered the case for the RBA to resume lifting interest rates, sending AUD/USD back towards of the top of its trading range. But whether it can break through may be determined by what happens with the Chinese yuan which continues to weaken against the US dollar.

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July 3, 2024 01:02 PM

AUD/USD outlook: RBA mins point to quarterly CPI figures for policy clues

Concerns that headline employment figures could be lagging a worse picture alongside a lack of updated service inflation figures prompted the RBA to hold rates in June. And that makes the quarterly CPI report in a few weeks all the more important.

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July 2, 2024 03:00 PM
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Australian Dollar Forecast: Don’t Sleep on the Coiling AUD/USD!

The confluence of fundamental events in the coming weeks sets the stage for a potential AUD/USD breakout.


JPY, EUR, CAD, AUD, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-short exposure to EUR/USD ahead of the French election. Open interest on CAD futures fell at its fastest pace in nearly one year as the sentiment extreme we warned of plays out. Net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures fell to a 3-year low, and prospects of net-long exposure are now on the horizon with the potential for an RBA hike.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: July 1, 2024

Australia's uncomfortably high inflation report last week means there is a real risk the RBA could hike rates by 25 bp at their August meeting.

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Shifting focus to US growth? AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD setups before PCE

Everyone expects a soft US core PCE inflation print on Friday. The seeds for such an outcome were sown weeks ago following the release of weak consumer and producer price data. So what happens to the US dollar unless we receive a surprise?

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June 28, 2024 09:48 AM

AUD/USD, ASX 200 SPI futures: Two breakouts, one failure and ample reversal risk

Australia’s ugly inflation report for May continues to impact markets 24 hours after its release, and not just those in Australia. But initial reaction, and price action since, continues to provide signals and setups in ASX 200 SPI futures and AUD/USD.

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June 27, 2024 11:22 AM

Another ugly inflation surprise ignites risk of August RBA hike

There is now little doubt underlying inflationary pressures in Australia are accelerating again, increasing the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to hike interest rates again for the first time since November. AUD/USD, Australian bond yields surge while ASX 200 tanks.

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June 26, 2024 12:44 PM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: RBA on alert for another upside inflation surprise

AUD/USD and Australian ASX SPI 200 futures need a catalyst to shake things up, stuck in narrow trading ranges for much of the past two months. While those events usually arrive from offshore, don’t discount the ability for Australia’s monthly indicator for May to get things moving today.

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June 26, 2024 09:28 AM
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158 continues to defy USD/JPY bulls, AUD/USD rebounds in style

Weak US retail sales alongside a relatively hawkish RBA statement gave AUD/USD a decent lift from range lows and further strengthened a case for a top to form on USD/JPY.

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June 19, 2024 09:35 AM