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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open
At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…
AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge
Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.
AUD/USD holds 64c, bonds retrace post CPI, jobs up next: Asian Open
US CPI was higher than expected, although bond yields pulled back in what could be a sign that investors are more concerned over a recession compare with a 'soft landing' for the US. But if yields continue to pull back it might take some steam out of the dollar rally. And that could help AUD/USD, which has remained reliant to breaks below 64c.
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AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point
AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)
Whilst AUD/USD has held above key support levels despite a slew of weak data from China, large speculators and asset managers have increased their bearish bets against it. Bears are also making more of a presence against EUR/USD, and large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to JPY futures by ~50% last week.
ASX 200: Bearish technical signals point to growing downside risks
Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.
“Bond-cano” eruption risk could spark renewed USD upside
Using the TLT EFT to track the risk of higher US bond yields, increased market volatility and a stronger US dollar.
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY analysis: European open – 07/09/2023
Asian equity markets were lower following China's trade data, yet US yields and the dollar pulled back to help AUD/USD hold above its cycle lows. I continue to suspect EUR/JPY has topped out on the daily chart, and today highlight a potential short setup beneath a resistance zone.
AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause
With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.
USD/CNH, AUD/USD: Spluttering services sector activity in China is hardly new news
With policymakers continuing to rollout stimulus measures, it’s questionable whether the USD/CNH pop will last.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates
A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.
AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks
AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates
AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH analysis: Asian Open – 29/08/2023
Despite an exciting start to Monday's Asian session, which saw some of China's stock market indices rally over 4% (and then hand much of it back), it was a quiet session in Europe and the US due to the UK public holiday. USD/JPY has stalled around a key resistance zone. USD/CNH looks appealing to bullish eyes, and AUD/USD (aka "the battler") is refusing to simply roll over and fall below 64 cents.
Gold, AUD/USD, Dow Jones: Commitment of traders report (COT) - 28/08/2023
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
WTI crude oil, AUD/USD analysis: Asian Open – 28/08/2023
Jerome Powell delivered a slightly more hawkish message than expected at Jackson Hole, by suggesting that the Fed may need to raise rates at least one more time. This helped the US dollar rise for a sixth week and send the 2-year yield to a 17-year high. Still, we see the potential for AUD/USD to hold above key support and WTI crude oil rise to $82.
AUD/USD: Powell positioning provides fuel for a bounce
Everyone hates the Australian dollar but loves the USD: a risk heading into Jackson Hole?
AUD/USD and gold bears get squeezed on weak US PMIs: Asian Open 24/08/2023
Flash PMIs dominated sentiment across the European and US sessions with downside disappointments. The US dollar index (DXY) topped just below 104 and closed back beneath the July high, hinting at a false break ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. And this saw EUR/USD rebound from 1.08 and AUD/USD and gold bears continue to cover shorts.
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AUD/USD: reversal risk builds ahead of Jackson Hole
Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.
AUD/USD finds itself at a technical juncture ahead of Jackson Hole
The Jackson Hole symposium, an annual economic policy conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has arrived. And Jerome Powell's speech will be the highlight. We look at what impact it could have on AUD/USD.
Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 battered and bruised: Asian Open – 21st August 2023
It was not the best week for Australian markets, with the ASX 200 suffering its worst week in nearly a year and AUD/USD trading lower for a fifth consecutive week (its first such bearish sequence since October). Today’s question is whether we’ll see a reprieve and if Beijing will unleash the vast amounts of stimulus investors are clearly craving.
AUD/USD holds 64c as US dollar rally pauses: Asian Open – 18th August 2023
The risk-off tone of the week continued through to European and US sessions yesterday, with Wall Street indices falling for a third consecutive day. However, perhaps there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel in hopes of stimulus. And with the US 2-year yield struggling to break 5% and the US dollar index stalling at the June high, perhaps there's some hope for AUD/USD just yet.
CNH, JPY, AUD reversal suggests short-term squeeze risk
Stocks are sliding, bonds are being battered. But a shift in FX markets points to a potential near-term reversal.