AUD/USD
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What to do when there is carnage on the currency floor?
With volatility and headline risk remaining high, we take a look at some of the key drivers and how to approach the currency market under such conditions.
RBA Governor Lowe uses the ‘p’ word
On the back of a 25bp hawkish hike, with hypothesized the potential for the RBA to be nearing a pause. Less than 24 hours later, Governor Lowe comes right out and says it.
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The RBA hike by 25bp – but are they one step closer to discussing a pause?
An initial glance at RBA's statement suggests they are nearing the end of the tightening cycle, and perhaps one step closer to publicly discussing a pause.
The RBA are expected to hike by 25bp tomorrow
If the RBA deliver another 25bp hike tomorrow, it will take their cash rate to a 10-year high of 3.6%.
Rising home loan arrears and falling dwelling approvals weigh on the Aussie
The Australian dollar is feeling the strain of housing-related headlines today, with mortgage arrears on the rise and dwelling approvals on the decline.
The Aussie dollar gets stunned as unemployment hits an 8-month high
December’s employment report raised a few eyebrows, as it was the first in a while to miss expectations and prompted us to question whether cracks were appearing in the economy. January’s report suggests there are.
Another 25bp hawkish hike from the RBA
The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead.
Four guys walk into a bar before central bank meetings…….
Will the RBA signal that they are going to pause the rate hike cycle?
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather
There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.
Is the move higher in AUD/USD set to continue?
Will AUD/USD be able to break above resistance and continue higher? It may depend on the Q4 inflation data.
AU employment miss adds to the Aussie's woes
A weak lead form Wall Street weighed on the Aussie overnight, with today’s employment miss adding to its downside pressure.
Two trades to watch: AUD/USD, Oil
AUD/USD rises after inflation and retail sales jump. Oil slips on recession fears & as inventories rise.
Good news from China helps lift AUD/USD
It seems that the Chinese government is willing to help with additional measures.
Two trades to watch: DAX, AUD/USD
DAX rises after GDP upward revision, but China worries could cap gains. AUD/USD falls as China COVID cases rise.
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What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish? https://t.co/9fXk8wQMSE https://t.co/xav6eMcJJQ
3:07 AM − 22 Mar 2023
The RBA's 25 vs 50bp hike debate is no longer ‘finely balanced’
The RBA’s November minutes lean towards 25bp hike/s with a pause along the way, with a 50bp hike likely requiring higher inflation expectations and wages.
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Will US inflation be the next ‘hot beat’ on the dance floor?
Hopes are high that we’ll see core CPI data for the US soften slightly, but with the weaker dollar holding above key support it leaves room for gains with a slight ‘beat’.
Two trades to watch: AUD/USD, FTSE
AUD/USD recovers after weak Chinese inflation data. FTSE wobbles as results come in.
Australian business sentiment stalls, consumer sentiment falls
Business confidence came to a standstill according to a monthly NAB (National Australian Bank) survey, whilst consumer confidence is its lowest since the pandemic.
Non-Farm Payrolls beat. It’s all going according to the Fed’s plan!
With the stronger than expected payroll data, the Fed can continue to do as it pleases regarding “price stability”.
Will the RBA repeat with a 25bp hike tomorrow?
The RBA are set to hold their November meeting tomorrow at 14:30 AEDT and, whilst the consensus is for a 25bp hike, it doesn’t mean they won’t do a 50bp one instead.
Will the RBA repeat with a 25bp hike tomorrow?
The RBA are set to hold their November meeting tomorrow at 14:30 AEDT and, whilst the consensus is for a 25bp hike, it doesn’t mean they won’t do a 50bp one instead.