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Nonfarm payroll, ISM, BOC and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead – Dec 1, 2023

With traders more than happy to price in Fed cuts for 2024 where possible, they will be looking for further signs that the US economy is slowing but at a rate that does not scream recession. And this places US ISM services and the nonfarm payroll report into the limelight next week. China’s trade data and inflation figures may reveal whether Beijing need to step up support for the economy yet again. And whilst the RBA and BOC are expected to hold the cash rate steady at their monetary policy meetings, their statements may indicate how much of an appetite there is for further hikes in Q1.

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December 1, 2023 05:08 PM

Crude oil steadies ahead of OPEC, US inflation in focus: The Week Ahead

Thanksgiving in the US has made for a very quiet second half to the week for traders, but with a key US inflation report and an OPEC meeting on tap then volatility is expected to return next week. Also note that Australia releases inflation figures which could be the deciding factor as to whether the RBA hold or hike at their final meeting of the year.

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November 24, 2023 12:16 PM

Bond auctions could trump data next week: The Week Ahead

In what seems like a while, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet with no top tier events. But US bond auctions should be on trader’s radars as they provide a look at how strong demand is (or not) for the ultimate US safe-haven asset. And if demand is low, it could send yields higher and shake a few equity bulls out of the tree and generally weigh on risk sentiment. We also have the RBA minutes and a potentially ‘live’ speech for the governor to keep tabs on.

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November 17, 2023 02:32 PM

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S&P 500 hints at swing high following Powell’s hawkish speech: The Week Ahead

Hawkish comments from Jerome Powell with the threat of further hikes snapped Wall Street’s 8-day wining streak, and hints at a swing high on the S&P 500 heading into the weekend. And that puts traders on high alert for next week’s inflation report, not to mention the threat of a government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised by Friday.

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November 10, 2023 10:42 AM

USD, yields retrace further, RBA meeting could be live: The Week Ahead

Bond yields continue to retrace for a second week with the US dollar, which has allowed risk assets to bounce from their lows. Whilst it has been a nice reprieve from negative sentiment, it remains debatable as to whether the supposed short-covering rally can switch to a risk-on phase. Tuesday’s RBA meeting is more than likely to be live, and that could help AUD/USD move higher from oversold levels.

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November 3, 2023 01:50 PM
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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 27, 2023 11:20 AM
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Big tech earnings, bond rout, US inflation and PMI reports collide. The week ahead

Event risk picks up a gear with big tech earnings, inflation readings from the US and Australia, rate decisions from the Eurozone and Canada and the latest PMI reports joining the mix, creating an environment that should provide ample opportunities for traders.

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October 20, 2023 02:59 PM

Can bondcano stay on the backburner? The Week Ahead

Bondcano, the phrase coined to described the sharp acceleration of bond yields to the detriment of equities, appears to be smouldering as yields have pulled back from their highs. It has certainly provided some relief for sentiment, given the well-based concerns that something was about to break in the financial system. But with the Fed members now striking a relatively dovish tone, it raises the question as to whether bond investors will now step back into the market to capitalise on attractive yields and take the sting out of bondcano’s tail.

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October 16, 2023 07:33 AM

EUR/USD Analysis: Mideast Turmoil Drives The Week Ahead – 06/17/2023

EUR/USD remains in a bearish channel amidst general strength in the greenback – potential for more downside in the coming week?

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October 14, 2023 01:55 AM

EUR/USD tries to snap its record losing streak: The Week Ahead – 06/10/2023

EUR/USD is on track for a record 12th consecutive losing streak. But given its hesitancy to test 1.04 and the potential for a false break of the January low, perhaps we’re finally nearing an inflection point for the battered EUR/USD.

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October 8, 2023 01:05 PM
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Can US PMI surveys and employment reports sway bonds? The Week Ahead

Last week we noted that bond yields could trump economic data this week, and for the most part they did. We can also extend that comment into next week, especially if they continue to retreat and loosen their grip on bearish sentiment and allow risk assets to rebound. Highlights in next week’s calendar include the NFP and ISM PMI reports, RBA and RBNZ monetary policy meetings, the quarterly Tankan survey for Japan and Canada’s employment report.

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September 29, 2023 02:16 PM

Bonds could trump data next week if yields keep surging: The Week Ahead

The most notable reaction following the latest FOMC meeting was the reaction of bond markets, which continued to plunge and send yields higher. Not even the US dollar could extend its rally meaningfully despite the rise of yields. But global stock markets certainly took notice and fell in tandem as investors finally took the Fed seriously that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer. So whilst we have US PCE inflation, consumer sentiment, GDP, retail sales and the likes of China PMIs and Australian CPI, it is likely to be how bond yields behave next week as to how important these economic data points become.

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September 23, 2023 07:50 AM

FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 02:54 PM

US CPI, ECB and a slew of China data: The Week Ahead – 08/09/2023

The combination of a key US inflation report and finely-balanced ECB interest decision should keep EUR/USD on trader’s radars. Although we also have plenty of data out from China which could sway sentiment for risk assets, including CPI/PPI, loan growth, investment, retail sales and employment.

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September 10, 2023 08:56 AM

ISM services, RBA, BOC meeting, China CPI: The Week Ahead – 01/09/2023

We can expect quieter trade on Monday due to the Labor Day weekend in the US and Canada, but as the week progresses we have a host of data from the APAC region including China's PMIs, inflation and trade figures. Governor Lowe holds is last RBA meeting and, like the RBA, the BOC are expected to hold rates. The ISM services PMI survey is a key data point for the US.

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September 2, 2023 09:30 AM

PCE inflation, NFP and ISM manufacturing in focus: The Week Ahead – 25/08/2023

It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.

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August 27, 2023 09:13 AM

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Jackson Hole, Powell speech to drive sentiment: The Week Ahead

The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.

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August 19, 2023 03:33 PM
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Key CPI reports for UK and CA, China data and FOMC minutes: The Week Ahead

It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.

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August 13, 2023 02:50 PM

The Week Ahead: US inflation, BOC and RBNZ meetings take the helm

US inflation takes the centre stage next week for economic data, with the Bank of Canada (BOC) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also set to announce their monetary policy decisions.

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July 7, 2023 01:12 PM
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The Week Ahead: RBA meeting, ISM surveys and Nonfarm payroll in focus

The RBA meet on Tuesday in what could be Governor Lowe’s final meeting, so will he go out with a 25bp bang of fade away with a pause? Employment data for the US includes Nonfarm payrolls, ADP and claims data, and traders also have ISM manufacturing and services reports to look forward to.

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June 30, 2023 02:00 PM

Earnings This Week: Nike, Micron and Carnival

Find out what to expect from the stocks due to report earnings this week.

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The Week Ahead: PCE inflation, euro CPIs and China PMIs in focus

We’re heading into the weekend with some risk-off volatility across Asian markets, as traders respond to the 50bp BOE and (well-grounded) concerns that central banks globally are not yet done with their tightening cycles. That means economic data remains as important as ever as investor as we head into next week, which includes PCE inflation for the US, flash PMIs across Europe and official PMI data for China.

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June 23, 2023 01:12 PM