Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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FOMC, BOJ, BOE take the reigns of market drivers: The Week Ahead
Harris replacing Biden may not be a radical overhaul where policies are concerned, but it has certainly brought the Democrat’s prospects for maintaining power back from the brink of death. From a market perspective, it means Trump is no longer a ‘walk in’ President, and political headlines from the US are no longer driving sentiment for now. Thankfully, we have intertest rate decisions from the FOMC, BOE and BOJ to drive sentiment, along with NFP and Australia’s CPI report for good measure.
USD/JPY selling recedes ahead of PCE inflation, crude oil slips in a gain
USD/JPY formed a potential bullish reversal day at key support ahead of today's US inflation report. With decent GDP figures also helping crude oil prices post a decent day's gain.
Gold bugs could be seeking dips as sentiment remains fragile
Whilst gold has been under pressure over the past two days, there surely comes a point where dip buyers may want to seek the safety of the precious metal. And I suspect we’re very close to that point.
Nasdaq pullback reaches crossroad, ASX 200 bulls eye sympathy bounce
After a hefty pullback, 19k looms for Nasdaq futures traders. Yet the higher timeframes suggests there could further downside even if it manages a bounce from nearby support. The ASX may fare better as its pullback is so far pale in comparison.
AUD/USD slammed, JPY thrives amid Wall Street selloff, BOJ expectations
The build-up of hawkish expectations of the BOJ alongside the Wall Street slide certainly made its mark on AUD/JPY which fell to an 11-week low, stopping just shy of the 101 handle. AUD/USD bears made light work of the 200-day MA.
AUD/JPY – the FX Barometer of Risk - Is in No Mood for Risk
Currently amid its worst 10-day run since the pandemic, AUD/JPY is on the ropes and desperately hoping the bell rings.
USD/JPY eyes 154 amid yen strength resurgence, PMIs on tap
Hawkish comments from Japan's government officials and a general unwind of carry trades sent the yen higher across the board on Tuesday, with USD/JPY hinting at a fresh cycle low as we head towards US GDP and inflation data this week.
Gold was overbought weeks ago, according to this measure
Gold futures traders waded into the metal ahead of the record high set last week. But if we adjust large speculative positioning for open interest, it turns out they reached a record level of bullish exposure five weeks ago.
AUD/USD and copper slump for a 6th day, ASX 200 regains balance
AUD/USD tracked copper prices lower for a sixth day, during its worst day in six weeks. Whilst both markets shows the potential for further losses, these may not be the ideal levels for bears to enter.
GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX, gold analysis from the weekly COT report
Large speculators surged into GBP/USD long bets last week, pushing net-long exposure to a record high and at the fastest weekly pace since records began. They also continued to trim net-short exposure to yen futures for a second week, after it nearly reached a record high of its own.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie to take its cue from sentiment
I suspect we’ve entered a phase where politically-driven sentiment carries more weight than domestic data for AUD/USD. And with the VIX rising alongside political uncertainty, volatility could favour bears over the coming months as we head towards the US elections.