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USD/CHF traders are nervous of being ‘caught short’ ahead of SNB

Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.

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S&P500 Forecast :SPX unchanged after weaker retail sales ,Fed speakers are in focus

US stocks are set for a quiet start after US retail sales were weaker than expected and with Federal Reserve speakers in focus. Retail sales show that consumption is moderating as inflation and interest rates remain high and unemployment rises. Looking ahead, Fed speakers are in focus after recent officials have supported the view that one rate cut this year is appropriate.

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June 18, 2024 11:45 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed speakers & retail sales later in the week

U.S. stocks are heading for a muted start as the dust settles on last week's inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision. There is no high-impacting data today, so attention will be on tomorrow's retail sales data and Fed speakers for more clues about when the Fed could start cutting rates. Last week, the Fed pointed to one rate cut this year. However, the market is still pricing in two rate cuts.

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June 17, 2024 11:20 PM

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls post-Fed & as PPI falls, jobless claims rise

US stocks are heading for a mixed open as the market continues digesting yesterday's Fed meeting. Policymakers lowered rate cut expectations to just one cut this year and did so after a slight weakening in monthly CPI. Today, data showed PPI fell in May, and jobless claims jumped. Meanwhile, the tech sector, lifted by chip stocks, is benefiting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but not the Dow Jones.

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June 13, 2024 11:06 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX hits an ATH as CPI cools & the Fed comes into focus

S&P 500 rises to a new ATH after inflation cooled by more than expected in May. The data comes ahead to the FOMC rate decision, where the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but could downwardly revise the doy plot from 3 rate cuts this year to 2 or even 1 cut. Attention will also be on the updated projections and Fed Chair Powell's press- conference. A cautious tone could see stocks give back some of their gains.

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June 12, 2024 11:19 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls as the Fed's 2-day FOMC meeting begins

US stocks are pointing to a lower start in jittery trade as the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting begins. With no high-impacting data today, attention is firmly on tomorrow's CPI print and the FOMC decision a few hours later. The Fed is expected to leave policy unchanged so attention will be on the dot plot and projections. Separately, Apple's unveiling of its AI strategy received a lukewarm reaction from Wall Street.

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June 11, 2024 11:16 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips amid a cautious mood ahead of this week's FOMC meeting

US stocks are set to open modestly lower, extending losses from Friday, after the non-farm payroll smashed forecasts and raised doubts about a September Federal Reserve rate cut. The mood is cautious ahead of this week's US inflation data and FOMC meeting. Elsewhere the EUR is falling sharply after a surprise snap election in France. Apple is in focus ahead of the Developer's conference.

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June 10, 2024 11:28 PM
Research

USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls after a stronger NFP report

US stocks are falling lower after the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data raised questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates in September. The data comes after mixed data across this week and ahead of the US CPI and the FOMC rate decision next week. Oil prices are set to fall across the week after Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, which raised concerns over increased supply later in the week.

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June 7, 2024 11:06 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX inches higher as jobless claims increase

US stocks are heading for a muted open as investors digest more signs of weakness in the labour market ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. Jobless claims rose by 229k, and came after weaker-than-expected ADP payrolls and job openings earlier in the week. A cooling labour market could give the Fed more reason to cut rates sooner.

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June 6, 2024 10:46 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after weak ADP payrolls boost rate cut expectations

US stocks are set to rise after weak ADP payroll data fuels expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates sooner. Recent US data has surprised to the downside, pointing to a slowing economy as high rates bite. US ISM services PMI data is due shortly, and further weakness to help stocks closer to another ATH. Oil prices are hovering around a 4-month low on supply worries and a shaky demand outlook.

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June 5, 2024 11:20 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on weak growth worries

US stocks point to a lower start amid rising worries over the health of the US economy after weak manufacturing data yesterday. A recent string of softer than forecast macro data points is unnerving investors, even if it means that the Fed cut rates earlier. Oil prices are falling for a 6th day as supply is expected to rise as the demand outlook weakens.

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June 4, 2024 11:24 PM
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USD/JPY upside getting difficult as US economic data rolls over

USD/JPY is on the backfoot in early June, hit by narrowing yield differentials and a whiff of concern about the trajectory for the US economy. Data releases in the coming days may provide clarity on the answer, providing two-way price risks given elevated levels of uncertainty.

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June 4, 2024 09:18 AM
Research

AUD/USD rises despite risk-off tone, USD, yields slammed post ISM

The USD and yields were knocked swiftly lower on Monday as evidence of an economic slowdown in the US continued to build, helping AUD/USD to head for 76c despite the risk-off tone to the session.

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June 4, 2024 07:51 AM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX starts the new month on the front foot

US stocks are set for a higher open, starting the month on the front foot. Despite losses in the previous week, the 3 main indices still booked solid gains across May. Attention turns towards a busy week, with ISM services and manufacturing PMIs as well as non-farm payrolls on Friday. Nvidia is under the spotlight after unveiling new releases over the weekend as competition in the sector heats up.

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June 3, 2024 11:09 PM
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NASDAQ 100 Forecast :QQQ rises as inflation cools by more than forecast

US stocks point to a higher open after the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation cooled more than expected. Core-PCE eased to 0.2% MoM in April, its weakest reading in six months, which will comfort the Fed. Inflation appears to be moving in the right direction, albeit at a slow pace. Attention will turn to next week's busy economic calendar for more clues on te health on the economy and when the Fed could start to cut rates.

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May 31, 2024 11:17 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls as rate jitters remain

US stocks point to a weaker open after US Q1 GDP was downwardly revised but rate jitters remain. Q1 GDP was lowered to 1.3%. However, this still represents solid growth, giving the Fed few reasons to start cutting rates anytime soon. Attention will be on Fed speakers later ahead of US core PCE tomorrow, which could provide more clues over the timing of the first Fed rate cut.

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May 30, 2024 11:51 PM

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USD, Wall Street, gold: Risk seems to be falling apart at the seams

I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls as treasury yields rise

US stocks point to a weaker start as treasury yields rise. Concerns over sticky inflation and high rates for longer hurt mega caps. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with the Fed Beige Book and several Fed speakers in focus ahead of Friday's core-PCE data. Oil prices are rising for a fourth straight day as the OPEC+ meeting comes into view.

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May 29, 2024 11:01 PM
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NASDAQ 100 Forecast QQQ steadies below the ATH ahead of inflation data

US stocks edge lower as traders return from the long weekend break and look ahead to inflation data later in the week. The data comes as the market remains fixed on when the Fed could start to cut interest rates. Expectations have been pushed back after a strong of Fed officials warned that they need to see more evidence of inflation cooling before cutting rates.

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May 29, 2024 12:00 AM
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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: QQQ rises but the recovery could be short -lived

US stocks are opening higher after losses yesterday when fears over high interest rates for longer overshadowed Nvidia's impressive results. Fears that a strong US economy and sticky inflation could prevent the Fed from loosening monetary policy, combined with lower volumes ahead of the long weekend, could see gains limited.

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May 24, 2024 11:54 PM
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EUR/USD on the ropes as US dollar bears back peddle

EUR/USD seems primed for a retest of 1.08 after USD dollars bears were forced to retreat, as the 'higher for longer' narrative returns to the scene.

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May 23, 2024 03:03 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX slips ahead of FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings

US stocks are pointing to a weaker open as concerns over high interest rates for longer offset optimism surrounding Nvidia ahead of its Q1 earnings after the closing bell. Nvidia is expected to post a 242% rise in revenue and EPS of $5.17 vs $0.82 in the same period last year. The stock trades up 200% over 12 months, and strong earnings could power the next leg higher for the S&P 500. The minutes of the latest Fed meeting will also be in focus and could support the view rates must stay high for longer.

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May 22, 2024 11:07 PM