FX

Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.

USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.

New Zealand inflationary pressures continued to ease in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, likely keeping the prospect of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a distant prospect.

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.

Whether you look at fundamentals or technicals, the case for USD/JPY is compelling. But the threat of BOJ intervention has not gone away, making for a tricky environment for traders to navigate. However, the volatility it generates creates multiple trade setups depending on your preferred timeframe.

With ample good news priced into the US dollar outlook and a big reversal in the AUD/USD on Tuesday, there are signs the torrent of bearish sentiment may be slowly turning around.

After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.

With EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD breaking uptrends established when the Fed pivoted away from rate hikes, we look at the levels to watch ahead of key US non-farm payrolls and ISM services PMI releases later this week.

AUD/USD remains a sell-on-rallies prospect in a week where interpretation of Fedspeak and US labour market data will dominate. It will be imperative for the US data to portray a message of continued economic strength to see meaningful downside materialise.

The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.

There’s not much difference between the USD/CNH and USD/JPY on the weekly charts, other than the former appears to be lagging the latter right now. With the yen falling to fresh multi-year lows even with the threat of intervention from the BOJ, will the yuan be next?

Australia’s inflation report undershot expectations in February, although there’s still evidence of stickiness in underlying price measures. Markets reacted by bidding Australian government bonds which have pressured AUD/USD, seeing it test uptrend support. A break could see the Aussie revisit its 2024 lows.

Watch out for Japanese intervention, Tokyo CPI and US core PCE inflation data this week, as the dollar rebounds after a weaker start. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a bullish breakout

With the influence of the Chinese yuan stet to increase further, this primer looks at the PBOC's USD/CNY daily ‘fix’, an event every trader should become familiar with given its importance to currency markets.