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The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus
The debt-ceiling is on track to be raised which resulted in strong rally for risk assets such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on Friday, ahead of the long weekend.
US dollar analysis: Fed threads the needle, still sees no cuts
Powell appears to be threading the needle between leaving the door open for additional rate hikes while remaining responsive to the current banking stresses.
US dollar analysis: Fed poised to hike, but will it be the last?
Ahead of the Fed, the US dollar has generally fallen vs. the euro this year, but there are signs EUR/USD may be losing its bullish momentum after a failed breakout to 1-year highs.
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Two Trades to Watch: FTSE, USD/JPY
FTSE falls after hot UK inflation. USD/JPY tests the 50 sma resistance ahead of the Fed rate decision.
European Open: UK inflation up next, then focus shifts to the FOMC meeting
Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.
What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?
Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?
Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision
We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.
FOMC meetings: What are they and how to trade them
FOMC meetings are some of the most important economic policy events. The meetings provide opportunities for both day traders and longer-term traders. Learn about the impacts of FOMC meetings and how to trade them.
Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)
Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.
FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY
Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!
Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited
Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?
European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up
The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).
How much higher can gold move?
By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.
US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario
Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?
Fed meeting preview: The magic show of interest rates, inflation, and growth
The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.
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What to make of December’s FOMC meeting?
If markets don’t care about what Powell has to say about interest rates, the next place to turn its attention to may be growth and the outlook for a possible recession in 2023!
FOMC meeting recap: Powell presser poses more questions than answers
The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...
US open: Stocks slip in cautious trade ahead of the FOMC rate decision
Stocks are edging lower as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve rate decision and attempt to gauge whether inflation has cooled sufficiently for the US central bank to adopt a more dovish stance.
Two trades to watch: FTSE, USD/JPY
FTSE falls despite inflation ticking lower. USD/JPY falls ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision.
European Open: GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC
Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.
FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?
While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.