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The Week Ahead: US Inflation, FOMC, ECB and BOJ meetings in focus

The debt-ceiling is on track to be raised which resulted in strong rally for risk assets such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on Friday, ahead of the long weekend.

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June 2, 2023 12:08 PM
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US dollar analysis: Fed threads the needle, still sees no cuts

Powell appears to be threading the needle between leaving the door open for additional rate hikes while remaining responsive to the current banking stresses.

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May 4, 2023 05:31 AM

US dollar analysis: Fed poised to hike, but will it be the last?

Ahead of the Fed, the US dollar has generally fallen vs. the euro this year, but there are signs EUR/USD may be losing its bullish momentum after a failed breakout to 1-year highs.

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May 2, 2023 02:53 AM

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Two Trades to Watch: FTSE, USD/JPY

FTSE falls after hot UK inflation. USD/JPY tests the 50 sma resistance ahead of the Fed rate decision.

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March 22, 2023 07:10 PM

European Open: UK inflation up next, then focus shifts to the FOMC meeting

Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.

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March 22, 2023 04:47 PM
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What if the Fed Fund Futures curve is too dovish?

Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?

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March 22, 2023 01:19 PM

Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

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FOMC meetings: What are they and how to trade them

FOMC meetings are some of the most important economic policy events. The meetings provide opportunities for both day traders and longer-term traders. Learn about the impacts of FOMC meetings and how to trade them.

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March 14, 2023 12:48 AM

Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)

Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.

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February 2, 2023 02:25 PM
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FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?

Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on

February 2, 2023 08:21 AM

FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!

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February 2, 2023 07:07 AM
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Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited

Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?

February 2, 2023 03:09 AM
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European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up

The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).

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February 1, 2023 05:02 PM
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How much higher can gold move?

By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.

February 1, 2023 06:01 AM
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US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario

Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?

February 1, 2023 02:23 AM

Fed meeting preview: The magic show of interest rates, inflation, and growth

The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?

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January 31, 2023 01:45 AM

Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week

The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.

January 28, 2023 02:54 AM

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What to make of December’s FOMC meeting?

If markets don’t care about what Powell has to say about interest rates, the next place to turn its attention to may be growth and the outlook for a possible recession in 2023!

December 15, 2022 08:30 AM

FOMC meeting recap: Powell presser poses more questions than answers

The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...

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December 15, 2022 07:15 AM
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US open: Stocks slip in cautious trade ahead of the FOMC rate decision

Stocks are edging lower as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve rate decision and attempt to gauge whether inflation has cooled sufficiently for the US central bank to adopt a more dovish stance.

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December 15, 2022 12:57 AM
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Two trades to watch: FTSE, USD/JPY

FTSE falls despite inflation ticking lower. USD/JPY falls ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision.

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December 14, 2022 07:20 PM

European Open: GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

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December 14, 2022 04:47 PM

FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

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December 13, 2022 07:21 AM