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FOMC hikes 25bps, as expected. More rate hikes to come?
Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on
FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY
Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!
Big miss for ADP Employment Change; weather cited
Will the weather effect from today’s ADP Employment Change have the same effect on January’s NFP report?
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European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up
The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).
How much higher can gold move?
By the reaction after today’s ECI, it looks like gold bugs still mean business.
US Q4 Employment Cost Index helps the Fed’s soft landing scenario
Will there be signs that the Fed intends to hike by an additional 25bps at it March meeting?
Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With the FOMC and the ECB meetings, along with a treasure trove of important economic data from the US and Europe, EUR/USD should be volatile this week.
Fed meeting preview: The magic show of interest rates, inflation, and growth
The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?
Week Ahead: FOMC, BOE, ECB, OPEC, NFP and big tech earnings
The FOMC is expected to hike 25bps, while both the BOE and the ECB are expected to hike 50bps.
Core PCE unlikely to sway Fed next week
The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.
What to make of December’s FOMC meeting?
If markets don’t care about what Powell has to say about interest rates, the next place to turn its attention to may be growth and the outlook for a possible recession in 2023!
FOMC meeting recap: Powell presser poses more questions than answers
The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...
US open: Stocks slip in cautious trade ahead of the FOMC rate decision
Stocks are edging lower as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve rate decision and attempt to gauge whether inflation has cooled sufficiently for the US central bank to adopt a more dovish stance.
Two trades to watch: FTSE, USD/JPY
FTSE falls despite inflation ticking lower. USD/JPY falls ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision.
European Open: GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC
Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.
FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?
While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.
November US PPI comes in hot. Will it matter to the Fed?
Although it had an immediate impact on the markets once it was released, the PPI print alone shouldn’t have too much influence on the FOMC decision.
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US CPI Preview: Will Tuesday’s CPI affect the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday?
The risk to the CPI data is that it is much lower than expected.
European Open: RBNZ deliver a hawkish 75bp hike, FOMC minutes up next
As if 75bp was not enough, the RBNZ came out swinging by increasing their terminal rate much higher than we anticipated.
Markets looking for higher Central Bank terminal rates
Major central banks around the world have been hiking rates at an unprecedented pace in order to try and cap inflation, which in some countries is at or near 40-year highs.
FOMC + BOE could send GBP/USD spiraling
GBP/USD is already down roughly 400 pips from Thursday’s high. Can it move lower? With a hawkish FOMC and a dovish BOE, it sure seems possible.
FOMC short: Dovish statement, hawkish Powell
With the Fed not even thinking or discussing the possibility of pausing, traders may be realizing that lowering inflation may take a lot longer than they had anticipated!
Russell: Stocks on edge as Fed decision looms
The terminal rate is going to be as an important consideration for the markets as the decision to potentially downshift in December.