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GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled

The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.

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US dollar, yields surge on hot US CPI, ASX set to gap lower: Asian Open

Bond yields and the US dollar surged after the latest US inflation report bought serious doubt over a June Fed cut, dragging global indices lower which sets the stage for the ASX 200 cash market to suffer today.

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April 11, 2024 09:24 AM

US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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April 8, 2024 01:35 PM

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US dollar hints at NFP rebound, ASX 200 to track Wall Street lower?

The US dollar retraced for a third day, but with NFP stats favouring a 'beat' then we're on guard for a dollar bounce.

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April 5, 2024 09:28 AM
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US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break

After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.

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April 3, 2024 01:35 PM

US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms

Looking at seasonality patterns shows that the US dollar tends to fall against most FX majors in April, and GBP/USD has been the outperformer.

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March 26, 2024 02:03 PM
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USD rallies on hawkish Fed, although USD/JPY falters below 152: Asian Open

The market appears to be doing the BOJ's work by refusing to test 152, which paints a bearish bias over the near term for USD/JPY.

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March 25, 2024 08:12 AM
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US dollar analysis: DXY extends recovery - Forex Friday

Dollar is supported by better-than-expected US data and unexpected dovish moves from certain central banks outside of the US. The Fed was also dovish, but it is all about inflation data moving forward. Next week’s macro highlights include CPI data from Australia and Japan and core PCE from the US. Dollar Index technical analysis points higher – for now.

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US dollar, Nasdaq 100, Gold forward returns over Easter: The Week Ahead

We have a shorter trading week due to the long Easter weekend. As there is a lack of top-tier data, we take at how the US dollar index, Nasdaq 100 and gold have performed around this time of year.

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March 22, 2024 01:13 PM
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The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

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March 19, 2024 01:03 PM

GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report

With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.

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USD bears scramble, USD/JPY eyes breakout after US data: Asian Open

US dollar bears scrambled for cover following hot US economic data ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, helping USD/JPY rise to a 5-day high and eye a potential breakout today.

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March 15, 2024 09:23 AM
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USD/JPY seems best bet for bulls amid a mixed US dollar environment

The US dollar rose for a second day, but its bearish reversal candle makes it less appealing to bulls. Yet USD/JPY shows promising signs of bullish mean reversion ahead of next week's BOJ and FOMC meetings.

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March 13, 2024 02:05 PM
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US dollar index on track for its worst week of the year: The Week Ahead

With Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively delivering a dovish pivot during his testimony to the house Committee, traders will no doubt jump onto weaker US economic data to reprice multiple rate cuts - and that could weigh further on the US dollar.

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March 8, 2024 02:25 PM

USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield

Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.

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February 20, 2024 01:49 PM
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JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

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Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead

Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.

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February 9, 2024 03:26 PM
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY: What 40+ Years of Fed Rate Cuts Tell Us About Trading Forex

Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar. Read on to for more!

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February 9, 2024 05:25 AM
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Dollars and Sense: The Short-Term Case for US Dollar Strength

How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar

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February 7, 2024 01:32 AM

US dollar bulls resurface, ASX 200 tests well for today: Asian Open

The US dollar shows the potential to continue higher despite a wall of key moving averages. And according to forward returns analysis, the two days prior to Australia Day tend to bode well for the ASX 200.

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January 24, 2024 09:25 AM

USD: Behind the U.S. Dollar, the Global Reserve Currency

The U.S. Dollar plays an incredibly important role in the global economy and while ‘De-dollarization’ claims may pop up, the currency set a fresh all-time-high for usage last year and remains the world’s primary reserve currency.

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USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.