GBP USD

The GBPUSD has dipped below the crucial 1.29 level ahead of this week's final wave of volatility surrounding US GDP and Core PCE data, and in anticipation of next week’s BOE and Fed monetary policy decisions. Will bearish pressures continue?

GBPUSD Forecast: The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain a close above the 1.3030 level. Current trends show bearish dominance, yet upcoming events next week will be crucial in determining whether the pair will continue its uptrend or face further declines.

EUR/USD looks to the ECB rate decision. GBP/USD eases after wage growth keeps August rate cut hopes alive.

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

GBP/USD eyes 1.30 after sticky services sector inflation. DAX edges lower on trade jitters & ahead of EZ CPI data

The UK's 1-month OIS suggests ~48% chance of a 25bp cut from the BOE next month, which means today's inflation report is likely a key driver for GBP/USD on monetary policy expectations.

Despite a stronger retail sales print, the tide may have turned on the US dollar following last week's recent data releases and raised expectations over the Fed cutting rates in September. Therefore, my GBP/USD forecast remains bullish, and I reckon the $1.30 handle could be taken out soon.

GBP/USD could pull back off 1-year highs at 1.3000 given the 17-year high in speculative long positioning, per the CFTC’s COT report.

In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell, it’s questionable whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week. GBP/USD is one pair that may be able to capitalise on dollar softness, putting a potential retest of the March highs into play.

The pound and FTSE are inching higher as the UK election results come in. Labour, as expected, won a landslide victory with 411 seats, marking gains of 210 seats at the time of writing. The outgoing Conservatives won just 119 seats, losing -248.

Labour has secured a thumping victory in the UK general election. GBP/USD is unmoved on the news, reflecting the result was priced in months ago. But the lack of volatility is also explained by its on the charts. It sits at an important level, making today’s June US nonfarm payrolls report a potential catalyst for a sizeable market move.

GBP/USD rises on General Election Day. EUR/USD rises to a 3-week high, ECB minutes are due.

DAX rises amid an improved market mood, Eurozone PMIs & PPI are due. GBP/USD rises after a dovish Powell & ahead of the UK General election.

The polling will take place on Thursday, July 4, when the US is out celebrating Independence Day. So, don’t expect any fireworks in the markets on Thursday. Ruling Conservatives are trailing Labour badly in the polls. If Labour does win, it must maintain investors' trust while tackling unresolved economic issues facing the UK, for example the public debt-to-GDP being at a 63-year high.

July has been the 3rd strongest month for GBP/USD historically, and bulls will be pinning their hopes on a recovery rally this month after the June drop.

Everyone expects a soft US core PCE inflation print on Friday. The seeds for such an outcome were sown weeks ago following the release of weak consumer and producer price data. So what happens to the US dollar unless we receive a surprise?

The countdown to 4th July, election day is on, and the polls have broadly continued to show the same pattern we've seen across the course of the election campaign: Labour retaining their lead of around 20 points above the Conservatives. Here, we take a look at what a Labour win could mean for the pound and FTSE index.