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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

EURUSD Outlook: French Political Uncertainties vs Fed Rate Cut Bets

EURUSD Outlook: Despite the bearish impact of political and economic uncertainty in the EU, EURUSD is holding at a bullish end amid Fed rate cut bets

Forex trading

EUR/USD forecast: After a mixed-bag jobs report focus turns to CPI – Forex Friday

Following a mixed US non-farm payrolls report, the US dollar fell, boosting metals and tech stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, and META to new highs. European indices dropped ahead of the French vote, limiting the euro's gains. The EUR/USD forecast may change based on the French vote outcome, while the upcoming US CPI release could influence the likelihood of a September rate cut.

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Powell testimony, US CPI, RBNZ and French Election: The Week Ahead

Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.

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FTSE 100 forecast: UK elections and its impact on UK assets

Today, millions of UK citizens are heading to polling stations to vote in the general elections, while the US is out celebrating Independence Day. Then it is all about the French legislative election on Sunday, which can arguably have a bigger influence on the FTSE 100 forecast than the UK vote today.

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July 4, 2024 09:00 PM
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EUR/USD forecast: French elections uncertainty hangs over markets

Mainstream parties are now devising strategies to prevent the far-right party from achieving an absolute majority, while Marine Le Pen will also be seeking support from beyond her RN party should it fall short of an absolute majority in Sunday’s legislative elections. Consequently, French politics will remain in the spotlight for the rest of the week.

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July 2, 2024 11:00 PM
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GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – July 1, 2024

The polling will take place on Thursday, July 4, when the US is out celebrating Independence Day. So, don’t expect any fireworks in the markets on Thursday. Ruling Conservatives are trailing Labour badly in the polls. If Labour does win, it must maintain investors' trust while tackling unresolved economic issues facing the UK, for example the public debt-to-GDP being at a 63-year high.

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Weekly equities forecast: French banks, UK housebuilders, bricks and mortar retailers

The first round of the French election has shown that the far right is unlikely to form an absolute majority. The CAC40 is outperforming, with banks leading the charge. Eurozone inflation data is in focus ahead of Suvday's second round of voting. UK stocks are also gearing up from the UK election on July 4th, with housebuilders such as Visrry and bricks and mortar retailers in focus.

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July 1, 2024 09:12 PM
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USD/JPY forecast unlikely to be altered by French elections

More US economic data is to come in the next couple of weeks, with the June non-farm jobs report due on Friday, followed by the CPI report on July 11. But this weekend, there is a more pressing issue: French elections. Whether this will impact the USD/JPY forecast remains to be seen. Thus, the more likely source of support for the yen is likely to come from BoJ/MoF intervention, until such a time that the BoJ tightens it policy more aggressively.

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June 30, 2024 12:00 AM
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Gold forecast: XAUUSD defends support ahead of key data and elections

Gold and silver have been on the rise in the last couple of days, recovering from weakness earlier in the week. Once again, gold has risen alongside equity markets, suggesting the recovery is not entirely driven by haven flows amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming French snap elections, which appears to have only impacted the local stock and bond, as well as regional, markets.

UK, French Elections, US Employment and PMIs: The Week Ahead

It's possible we'll know who won the first round of France's election by the time markets open in Asia next week, which means the euro and European index futures could be more active than usual. Traders should then look to the pound and FTSE for pre-election jitters, although once again it could be Asian markets that get to witness the results. Despite the public holiday on Thursday, the US economic calendar is also packed. Two key ISM reports for manufacturing and services land before July 4th, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment reports, which are the warm-up acts for NFP on Friday.

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USD/JPY toys with fresh 38-year high ahead of PCE, Trump, Biden in focus

Japan’s officials would like to think they have slowed the decline of the yen to a degree on Thursday, following their latest threats of intervention. However, traders could simply be taking a cautious approach ahead of Friday’s US inflation report, which is keeping USD/JPY just below its 38-year high.

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EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Under Pressure as French Election Looms

The euro was under pressure in the first half of Wednesday’s session, ahead of the French snap election and due to growing signs of weakness in Germany’s economy. This political uncertainty has bolstered the US dollar, especially against currencies where the central bank is more dovish or where interest rates are significantly lower than the US – for example the Japanese yen.

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GBP/USD, FTSE Forecast: How could the UK election impact the markets?

The countdown to 4th July, election day is on, and the polls have broadly continued to show the same pattern we've seen across the course of the election campaign: Labour retaining their lead of around 20 points above the Conservatives. Here, we take a look at what a Labour win could mean for the pound and FTSE index.

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EUR/USD in the crossfire of election polls, US inflation: The Week Ahead

Inflation reports are the main theme for next week, with figures set to be released from the US, Canada, Australia and Japan. EUR/USD traders might want to be on guard for headline risk surrounding French elections, as it is the last full week before votes are cast and that means polls could easily sway sentient for European markets.

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June 21, 2024 03:42 PM

Will the Fed Cut Rates in July? Four Contrarian Reasons to Start Reducing Interest Rates

Why might the Fed cut rates in July? Inflation is running below the Fed’s target with timely measures of shelter inflation, jobless claims are ticking up, monetary policy is tight per the Taylor Rule, and the election is looming.

Forex trading

EUR/USD outlook hinges on French election

The US dollar has been little-changed so far this week, after starting the week moderately lower on Monday following a two-week rally and turning slightly higher today against a basket of foreign currency. The highlight of the day is the May US retail sales data.

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June 18, 2024 09:30 PM

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British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Tests 1.28 Resistance, UK Election in One Month

GBP/USD remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the UK election, so traders may be keen to buy any dips toward the 50-day EMA near 1.2600 this week.

Research

European Open: EUR/USD implied volatility spikes ahead of mid-term results

At the time of writing, the race to the Senate is close yet Republicans lead the race to the house during the mid-term elections.

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ASX200 Afternoon Report May 23rd 2022

The ASX200 has given back over 50 points of early gains to be trading flat at 7145 at 3.00 pm Sydney time.

May 23, 2022 03:10 PM
Research

What does the ALP's election win mean for the ASX200?

As both polling and betting markets correctly predicted (this time), the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has claimed victory in the 2022 Federal Election, the first time in 9 years Labor Party has been in power.

May 23, 2022 05:50 AM
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Where are the tail risks for this weekend's Australian Federal Election?

The Australian Federal Election is just five days away. Both polling and betting markets have the ALP well ahead. As illustrated by Brexit, Donald Trump’s election in 2016 and the Australian Federal Election in 2019, polls are not fool proof.

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Two masters and only one answer - RBA

In a preview earlier this week, we noted that a firm Q1 Australian inflation print would likely confirm the end of the era of ultra-low interest rates in Australia and the possibility of an interest rate hike as early as next week.

April 28, 2022 04:38 PM