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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX subdued at the end of a strong Q1

US stocks are almost unchanged, hovering around record highs as investors weigh up an upward revision to US Q4 GDP and hawkish comments from Fe Governor Christopher Waller. Waller warned that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates. US Q4 GDP was upwardly revised to 3.4% annualized. Today is the final trading day of the first quarter which has seen 10% gains.

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March 29, 2024 12:26 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA stocks drift higher amid a light calendar

US stocks are set to rise on the open, helped higher by rises in AI stocks and amid a quiet economic calendar. Attention will be on Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who is due to speak later. Otherwise, the main focus is Friday's core PCE data, which comes when the market is closed for the Good Friday holiday. Today oil prices are falling 1% after oil inventories rose sharply.

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Today 12:14 AM
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Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ rises, boosted by chipmakers

US stocks are set to open higher, boosted by chipmakers, and as investors weigh up diverging Fed views over the scale of rate cuts this year. While Raphael Bostic sees just one rate cut this year, Austan Goolsbee sees three rate cuts in 2024, The spotlight will be on US core PCE data on Friday, which could provide more clues over the Fed's future path for rate cuts. Today, US durable goods orders rose more than expected.

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Yesterday 12:30 AM

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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD inches higher after German confidence improves modestly. Oil holds yesterday’s gains on supply concerns, API data is due.

Crude oil rises on production cuts, ASX 200 set to retrace? Asian Open

With geopolitical tensions on the rise and Russia announcing production cuts as infrastructure continues to face attacks, the path of least resistance for WTI crude oil appears to be higher.

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March 26, 2024 09:27 AM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls ahead of US inflation data, Fed speakers

US stocks are set to drift lower on the open after record highs last week. Stocks rallied on expectations that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in June and will squeeze in 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. Attention is on core PCE inflation data on Friday and several Fed speakers across the week, which could give more clues on the future path for rate cuts.

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March 26, 2024 12:05 AM
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USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY holds steady amid intervention threat. Oil rises as geopolitical tensions rise.

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March 25, 2024 08:17 PM
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AUD/USD net-short exposure reached a record high last week: COT report

An increase of bearish bets against AUD/USD pushed net-short exposure to a record high among large speculators.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises to record high after the Fed boosts rate cut bets

US stocks are opening at fresh record highs, extending yesterday's rally after the Fed bolstered rate cut bets. The US Central Bank left rates on hold, upwardly revised the inflation outlook, and maintained its guidance for 3 rate cuts this year, surprising the market. The Fed doesn't appear to be concerned by two months of hotter-than-forecast inflation. Chip stocks are leading the rally and Reddit will start trading today on the NYSE.

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March 22, 2024 12:42 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA slips ahead of the Fed rate decision

US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Dow Jones falling modestly and the Nasdaq 100 inching higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Policymakers are expected to leave rates on hold. Instead, the focus will be on the projections and the tone. After two straight months of hotter-than-forecast inflation, Fed Chair Powell could adopt a more hawkish tone, pushing back rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed could hurt demand for equities and boost the USD.

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March 20, 2024 11:50 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on caution ahead of the Fed meeting

US stocks point lower, and nerves start to show as the FOMC's two-day meeting kicks off. The market is fully pricing in that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but it has also pushed back on when the Fed could start rate cuts. The possibility of a rate cut in June is being priced in at a little over 50/50, which has lifted the USD and is dragging on demand for stocks. Nvidia falls after the unveiling of its latest AI chip failed to attract more buyers into the stock.

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March 19, 2024 11:39 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises on Google, Apple AI chatter

US stocks are pointing to a stronger open, with tech stocks outperforming. Reports that Alphabet's Google and Apple are in talks to include Google's AI Gemini feature in iPhones has boosted the mood. Nvidia's annual developers conference will also kick off today. While tech news is lifting the mood, attention is also on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, where the Fed could adopt a more hawkish stance given the sticky nature of inflation.

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March 19, 2024 12:11 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls on inflation worries

US stocks fall after sticky inflation data this week has raised concerns the Fed may keep rates high for longer. The Fed is not expected to cut rates next week but could downwardly revise its dot plot from three rate cuts in 2024 forecast in December to 2 cuts. The USD is on track for a weekly gain as the Fed could turn more hawkish. Oil is set to rise 3% across the week on signs that the market is tightening.

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March 16, 2024 01:21 AM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA pares gains after hotter PPI

US futures have pared gains after PPI data highlighted the sticky nature of inflation and raised questions about whether the Fed will be able to cut rates three times this year. The data comes after CPI earlier in the week was also hotter than expected. The market has adjusted its June rate-cut bets, but not by a significant margin, which is keeping stocks elevated. Oil extends gains after a bullish IEA oil market report.

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March 15, 2024 12:10 AM

WTI crude oil looks set to break $80: Asian Open – March 14, 2024

After several weeks of choppy trading conditions, momentum has turned higher on WTI crude oil and a breakout above $80 is on the radar.

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March 14, 2024 09:19 AM
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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: QQQ muted ahead of more data tomorrow

US stocks point to a muted start after yesterday's rally. Investors have shrugged off hotter-than-forecast inflation and remain firm that the Fed will cut rates in the June meeting. US economic data is in short supply today. Attention will be on retail sales and producer prices later in the week. Oil prices pop on an upbeat demand outlook from OPEC.

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March 14, 2024 12:20 AM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises despite hotter-than-expected inflation

US stocks point to a higher start despite US inflation and core inflation coming in hotter than expected. The sticky inflation reading raises questions over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates three times this year, as indicated in the dot plot in December. While stocks are rising, gains could be limited. The USD is edging higher after the data. Oil struggles for direction ahead of the OPEC monthly market report.

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March 13, 2024 12:10 AM

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AUD/USD, ASX 200 pause for breath ahead of US CPI: Asian Open

With traders eager to price in Fed cuts, today’s US CPI could bolster the US dollar and see AUD/USD and the ASX 200 pull back further if the data comes in too hot.

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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's CPI data

US stocks are pointing to a weaker open, extending losses from last week. Wall Street's main indices dropped on Friday as Nvidia tumbled after mixed US jobs data. Today, the mood is cautious as investors look ahead to Tuesday's inflation data, which could provide more clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Bitcoin-related stocks rise as the cryptocurrency hits a record high.

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March 12, 2024 12:36 AM
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Oil, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

Oil falls on China demand worries. USD/JPY falls to a monthly low as BoJ rate hike bets build.

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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, gold analysis: COT report – March 11, 2024

The reversal on USD/JPY did not come without warning, as traders had reached a record level of net-short exposure. And whilst USD/JPY may be due for a bounce, further downside potential remains.

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Oil forecast: WTI falls away from $80 ahead of US inflation, OPEC monthly oil report

Oil is falling away from $80 but continues to trade in a narrow range. US inflation, OPEC's monthly market report, and China jitters could drive oil in the coming week.

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March 9, 2024 07:37 AM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises on signs of the jobs market cooling

US stocks are set to pen marginally higher, adding to yesterday's gains after jobless claims added to evidence that the US labour market is cooling and ahead of a second day of testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before Congress. Yesterday, Powell said that a rate cut this year could be likely but gave no clues on the timing or the scale. Neel Kashkari was more hawkish, saying no more than two hikes would be needed this year.

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March 8, 2024 01:08 AM