WTI

There has been a shakeup at the top for gold, which opened the week at the high and closed the day at the low during its worst day in two years. We also look at a potential swing trade long on WTI crude oil.

Crude oil demand outlook will come into a sharp focus this week with the release of the global manufacturing PMI data, US GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation this week. Still, Middle East tensions remain the key driver of short-term price action. Meanwhile, WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend is still bullish.

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.

The US dollar snapped a 6-day winning streak to allow AUD/USD to rebound from 64c in line with yesterday’s bias. And if AU employment figures perform today, it could extend its gains for a second day.

Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.

Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.

A risk-off tone ensued across global markets to send the US dollar higher, to the detriment of AUD/USD and the ASX 200.

USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.

With traders eager to price in Fed cuts, today’s US CPI could bolster the US dollar and see AUD/USD and the ASX 200 pull back further if the data comes in too hot.

Crude oil outlook boosted from multiple sources today, including a weaker US dollar, a bigger than expected crude product draw, and positive risk sentiment after China set ambitious growth target

What does OPEC’s decision mean for oil prices is discussed in this article. We also take a look at the WTI chart, with technical analysis pointing higher. But bullish momentum needs to resume and fast.

This week will be a key one for WTI, with a bullish break above 80.00 potentially setting the stage for a quick continuation toward the mid-80.00s.

WTI crude oil has managed to rise mostly as a function of short covering. And whilst it looks set to make a break for $80, a fresh catalyst may be required before we should expect runaway gains.

Data finally begins to pick up for the week with an AU CPI report and RBNZ meeting, which places NZD/USD and AUD/NZD into focus.

Oil prices have been very range-bound over the past few months but breakout potential remains as WTI has built an ascending triangle inside of the recent range.

Soft inflation figures from Canada and a poll of economists backing a June Fed cut sent gold higher on Wednesday, as traders refreshed their dovish bets. Crude oil has also faltered once more at a key resistance area.

Factors that oil investors will be focusing on this week are discussed in this article, but in short, the risks remained skewed to upside despite despite choppy recent price action.