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Explainer: the PBOC USD/CNY fix and how it impacts FX markets

With the influence of the Chinese yuan stet to increase further, this primer looks at the PBOC's USD/CNY daily ‘fix’, an event every trader should become familiar with given its importance to currency markets.

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March 26, 2024 03:11 PM
Downwards trend with red arrow

The seeds for iron ore’s latest lurch lower were sown last week

Iron ore futures are in an increasingly ugly bear market, spiraling lower since the beginning of the year after defying bears for what seemed to be an eternity in 2023. With the price catching up to what fundamentals had been warning for months, traders are wondering how far the move can extend?

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March 13, 2024 03:47 PM

Lows may be in for Chinese stocks as bear market downtrends give way

The bear market in Chinese equities may be coming a state-endorsed end with A50 futures breaking the downtrend dating back to early 2021 earlier this week. The 200-day moving average may be the next bearish indicator to give way, bolstering the view that the lows may have already been seen.

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March 6, 2024 04:47 PM

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Hang Seng, China A50 seeking fresh bullish catalysts to power market recovery

China’s state-endorsed equity market recovery continues to go from strength to strength, building upon a lengthy and growing list of measures being rolled out by policymakers designed to coerce traders into buying. Perhaps the broader bear market trend may be coming to an end?

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February 22, 2024 12:21 PM

If USD/CNH is the canary in the coalmine, USD/JPY might be in trouble

A bearish reversal pattern has formed on USD/CNH which implies a move down to 7.10. And if the yuan continues to strengthen, it could see the yen follow and scupper USD/JPY attempt at breaking 152.

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February 21, 2024 05:12 PM
downtrend chart

Hang Seng’s suspect price action at odds with bullish narratives

Hang Seng futures don’t look like they’re about to embark on a face-ripping rally, no matter how cheap valuations are and no matter how much government encouragement is doled out.

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February 8, 2024 12:01 PM

China’s stock market rescue brings in reinforcements

China’s “National Team”, the nickname given to state-backed entities tasked with rescuing markets, are doubling their efforts, upping purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) while restricting certain undesirable activities detrimental to stock prices. So far, indices such as the A50 are rallying.

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February 6, 2024 01:57 PM

Hang Seng, China A50 and CNH need sustained rally to turn bearish China narrative around

There is a real confidence problem right now towards China. And while the underlying reasons are complex, the easiest way to change the prevailing bearish narrative is for the price action to turnaround. Price leads narrative.

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January 24, 2024 01:16 PM
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GBP/JPY teases 2015 high post BOJ, Crude oil eyes $77: European open

The US dollar and yen were the weakest FX majors during the Asian session, following reports of China stimulus and no change in policy from the BOJ. GBP/JPY has probed a key resistance level and crude oil shows the potential to extend yesterday's gains.


AUD/USD, USD/CNH: PMIs suggest China’s economy is nearing stall speed

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

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November 30, 2023 01:17 PM

China A50, USD/CNH: Turning point as economic recovery gathers pace?

Activity levels in China’s economy look to be slowly picking up, providing relief for cyclical assets amidst a deteriorating macro backdrop due to events in Gaza. That's helping boost CNH and China's A50 share index.

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October 18, 2023 02:06 PM

AUD/USD: Monthly indicators in China’s ‘data dump’ to dictate direction

The tentative rebound in the AUD/USD faces its next hurdle today with the release of China’s monthly ‘data dump’, including Q3 GDP.

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October 18, 2023 10:58 AM

China A50: Retest of range lows looms, testing buyer demand

Chinese equities have had plenty thrown at them in 2023. Yet, despite the challenges, some mainland indices such as the FTSE A50 are holding up alright.

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September 26, 2023 03:15 PM

AUD/JPY: A proxy trade on China’s outlook that does not involve USD

Having been driven by rate differentials for much of the past three years, AUD/JPY is evolving into an effective way to express a view towards China’s outlook that does not involve the US dollar.

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September 25, 2023 01:15 PM
Quarry and various stones

Stimulus and seasonality could power mining sector gains

A trade idea to play what what is traditionally strong period for mining stocks.

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September 12, 2023 12:41 PM

US CPI, ECB and a slew of China data: The Week Ahead – 08/09/2023

The combination of a key US inflation report and finely-balanced ECB interest decision should keep EUR/USD on trader’s radars. Although we also have plenty of data out from China which could sway sentiment for risk assets, including CPI/PPI, loan growth, investment, retail sales and employment.

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September 10, 2023 08:56 AM

China A50: upside risks for earnings grow as stimulus ramps up

Comprising huge financial and property firms, China's A50 may benefit from the rapid rollout of stimulus measures.

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August 30, 2023 10:57 AM

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Hang Seng, China A50: bounce beckons on stamp duty cut

China's stamp duty cut on stock trades sows seed for a bounce given depressed valuations and investor sentiment.

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August 28, 2023 11:32 AM

Iron ore rally faces its next big test

Iron ore has been rallying hard but will stimulus speculation end in sorrow?

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August 23, 2023 04:01 PM
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AUD/USD: reversal risk builds ahead of Jackson Hole

Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.

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August 23, 2023 11:16 AM

USD/CNY: PBOC ramps up efforts to defend the yuan

The People's Bank of China delivers the strongest USD/CNY fix relative to expectations on record.

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August 18, 2023 11:36 AM
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AUD/USD hits fresh lows as bearish sentiment towards China’s economy intensifies

No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.

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August 16, 2023 11:28 AM

AUD/USD, ASX 200 falter on weak China data: Asian Open – 15th August 2023

It was a risk off tone to the start of the week following dire loan data from China over the weekend. AUD/USD briefly traded to a fresh YTD low and the ASX fell out of its bearish bed ad closed below 7300 for the first time in a month. The question now is whether key support levels will hold and appetite for risk will be restored, or something bigger is cooking?

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August 15, 2023 08:34 AM