Crude Oil

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.

Middle East concerns should keep the downside limited for crude oil, after prices slid 3% as demand concerns intensified on weaker Chinese industrial data and amid the prospects of higher interest rates for longer. WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend remains bullish, with the first short-term support level to watch coming in around $82 area.

Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.

The economic calendar is beginning to ramp up with a key US inflation report, Fed members speaking ahead of the FOMC minutes and a BOC cash rate decision. Today we look at key levels for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and crude oil.

It’s not just fundamentals and technicals driving the rally across large parts of the commodity complex right now, but also a collective rethink from traders about what more than 250 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this cycle will mean for the long-term global inflation trajectory.

The crude oil rally has seen the 50-day moving average flick sharply higher, putting it on track to generate a Golden Cross as it moves above the 200-day moving average. History suggests this may fuel further gains despite the price sitting in overbought territory.

Crude oil looks set to end March and the first quarter higher. Oil prices have been buoyed by easing demand concerns and sustained supply cuts by the OPEC+. Meanwhile WTI technical analysis points higher, for as long as $79-$80 support area holds.

Crude oil analysis: China set to import record volumes of Russian oil in March, as oil extends weekly breakout ahead of a busy week for financial markets.

Technical levels and factors on Brent discussed in this article, ahead of the publication of global PMIs and crude inventories data, which could provide catalyst for a potential breakout.

Factors that oil investors will be focusing on this week are discussed in this article, but in short, the risks remained skewed to upside despite despite choppy recent price action.

Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.

Oil prices posted about a 7% weekly loss a week ago. But by Friday afternoon trading, when this report was written, crude had recouped much of those losses. Prices were now up around 5% on the week, with Brent oil trading around its 200-day moving average at $81.50.

WTI crude is trying to rise for a third day in line with my bullish bias, although resistance nearby hints at a pullback at the least. Momentum for gold has turned lower, and it looks like bears may not quite be done yet.

Crude oil prices fell over 10% in just five days, from the Jan 29th high to Monday’s low. And with support on hand, its downside potential could be limited over the near term.

Crude oil finished last week nursing its largest three-day decline since October, sliding 7.1% despite escalating geopolitical tensions. But with US and UK forces bombing Iranian-backed militia targets in Yemen, Iraq and Syria over the weekend, grounds for a bounce may be increasing.

Crude oil plunges, but Middle East tensions still remain high despite potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. IMF raises global GDP forecasts as US economy again displays resilience, as evidence by a robust jobs report. But China remains a concern.

Crude oil is already supported on raised geopolitical risks but now we also have improved demand outlook, after the IMF raised its global GDP forecasts thanks to a resilient US economy and fiscal support from China.