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If USD/CNH is the canary in the coalmine, USD/JPY might be in trouble

A bearish reversal pattern has formed on USD/CNH which implies a move down to 7.10. And if the yuan continues to strengthen, it could see the yen follow and scupper USD/JPY attempt at breaking 152.

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February 21, 2024 05:12 PM

USD/JPY, USD/CNH uptrends under threat as dollar rally splutters

The US dollar rally since the start of the year is showing signs of fatigue, unable to build upon gains last week despite widening yield differential between the United States and other major nations, including in Asia.

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February 20, 2024 12:57 PM

Hang Seng, China A50 and CNH need sustained rally to turn bearish China narrative around

There is a real confidence problem right now towards China. And while the underlying reasons are complex, the easiest way to change the prevailing bearish narrative is for the price action to turnaround. Price leads narrative.

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January 24, 2024 01:16 PM

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USD/CNH down, A50 up as weak Chinese inflation keeps stimulus hopes alive

Chinese inflationary pressures remain weak, whether it be upstream or for consumers. But with expectations for further stimulus from the Chinese policymakers baked in the cake, does it have implications for China’s equity market or currency?

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January 12, 2024 01:46 PM

AUD/USD going backwards as Asia FX struggles with a resurgent US dollar

It’s hard to get excited about the prospects for Asian currencies when you see Chinese inflation data as weak as those released on Saturday, signifying that despite an increasingly lengthy list of measures to support activity, the world’s second-largest economy is operating well below its potential level.

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December 11, 2023 04:05 PM

AUD/USD, USD/CNH: PMIs suggest China’s economy is nearing stall speed

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

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November 30, 2023 01:17 PM
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AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open

With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.

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November 29, 2023 08:46 AM
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US dollar bears running out of steam? AUD/USD, USD/JPY: Asian Open

We watched with bated breath to see if USD/CNH would break its 200-day average on Tuesday and pave the way for the next bout of US dollar weakness. Yet with that key level holding as support, it leaves room for some US dollar strength, a higher USD/JPY and weaker AUD/USD.

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November 22, 2023 09:26 AM
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AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

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November 21, 2023 12:47 PM
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USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Chinese yuan strength a bullish signal for Asian FX names

The latest episode of US economic exceptionalism may be coming to an end, resulting in US bond yields and US dollar coming off their highs. Major Asian FX names like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan have been taking note, strengthening further against the buck on Friday.

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November 20, 2023 12:16 PM

AUD/USD, USD/CNH: Aussie dollar’s China proxy tag put to the test

AUD/USD is widely regarded as being a proxy for all things China: it’s economic performance, trends in financial markets and even the Chinese currency, the yuan.

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November 15, 2023 12:36 PM

Dollar analysis: USD/CNH in focus ahead of key events

The USD/CNH pair has been stuck in a tight range, unable to move in either direction. In recent days, the US dollar has weakened a little across the board owing to recent signs of peak interest rates in the US. But expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for a long period of time means that the greenback continues to find support against weaker currencies like the yuan and yen, among others.

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November 10, 2023 01:30 AM

China A50, USD/CNH: Prime reversal candidates should US economic exceptionalism falter

It’s been a rough year for Chinese markets with the A50 share index and CNH down sharply as hopes for booming economic activity coming out of the pandemic failed to materialise.

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November 7, 2023 10:17 AM

USD/CNH, A50: Bearish breaks as Chinese property prices keep on falling

Optimism towards China’s GDP, retail sales and industrial output beats didn’t last long with the A50 and USD/CNH resuming their unwind following more data showing property market weakness.

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October 19, 2023 02:43 PM

China A50, USD/CNH: Turning point as economic recovery gathers pace?

Activity levels in China’s economy look to be slowly picking up, providing relief for cyclical assets amidst a deteriorating macro backdrop due to events in Gaza. That's helping boost CNH and China's A50 share index.

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October 18, 2023 02:06 PM

China A50, USD/CNH: Weakening trend in focus ahead of key economic data

Chinese markets are reopening after Gold Week, having to navigate heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, spiking US bond yields and key economic data at home.

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October 9, 2023 04:02 PM

Bonds bounce hard following bloodbath: did we just see the highs for yields this cycle?

Whatever the catalyst, something strange happened in US Treasuries on Thursday: bond yields actually fell, sparking speculation of an impending reversal.

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USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CNH: Fading intervention that fails fundamentals

Any attempt to support JPY through direct market intervention is unlikely to have success beyond the short-term when the fundamentals are so strongly working against it.

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September 26, 2023 10:39 AM

USD/CNH, AUD/JPY: China ‘data dump’ relieves pressure on yuan, Australian dollar

China’s August “data dump” has come in ahead of expectations, solidifying the view activity in the world’s second-largest economy is beginning to stabilise.

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September 15, 2023 12:42 PM

USD/CNH: Turning point as yuan strengthens despite US core CPI strength?

USD/CNH has broken out of the range it’s been in since July, signaling a potential period of consolidation, or even a reversal, from the prevailing bullish trend.

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September 14, 2023 09:33 AM

USD/CNH: Encouraging signs from China’s economy may spark deeper reversal

The Chinese yuan looks set for its largest gain against the US dollar since March, propelled higher a triple-whammy of factors.

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September 11, 2023 04:38 PM
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AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point

AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.

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September 11, 2023 12:44 PM

USD/JPY saw a lively start at the Tokyo open, USD/CNH breaks out

USD/JPY moved around 80% of its average daily range within the first 30-minutes of trade, in what appears to be a bout of yen buying. USD/CNH also broke above a key high.

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September 8, 2023 11:38 AM