Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar, EUR/USD and NZD/USD ahead of next week's key macro events.

The big story this week has been on the inflation front, with CPI in the US and UK both falling faster than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed and other central banks will no longer raise rates further. With a couple of other key US economic pointers also coming in weaker this week, such as industrial production and jobless claims data, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, this has led to speculation that the Fed may start cutting rates sooner than expected in 2024

Following Thursday’s bullish reversal in the dollar on the back of a soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell, the key question is whether those gains will last. I don’t think the Fed Chair said anything out of the ordinary, although that’s not to say the dollar won’t necessarily rise further. I mean, you wouldn’t expect him to turn decisively dovish just on the back of a couple of weaker data points.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report we will discuss the dollar’s outlook and how the upcoming data releases could impact the direction of major pairs like the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.

It has been a tumultuous and eventful week for the global financial markets. The ongoing situation in the Middle East has triggered a surge of volatility in the oil and stock markets, compelling investors to re-evaluate their strategies and shift their focus from riskier assets to “safer” investments.

The key theme on Friday has been this: geopolitics is driving everything right now. Safe haven gold was up $35 per ounce on the session, crude oil prices had risen nearly 4% and yields were lower amid haven flows into government bonds. Worries that Israel is preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza has sharply raised geopolitical risks in the region.

It is all about the nonfarm payrolls report and the dollar today. The NFP data will be responsible for the short-term direction of the US dollar and bond yields, before the focus turns to the FOMC meeting minutes and inflation data next week.

Despite softer Eurozone inflation and German retail sales data, the EUR/USD climbed for the second day in the first half of Friday’s session. It was supported because of firmer risk tone across financial markets, driven by a weakness in US dollar and global bond yields. But rising oil prices are among reasons that could prevent the EUR/USD from rising much further.

So, the US jobs data was mixed and the probability of a rate hike in September fell to 13% from about 20% prior to the data release. Correspondingly, the US dollar and bond yields fell, gold rallied, and stocks stabilised somewhat.

The US dollar was coming under a bit of pressure in the first half of Friday’s session, but after Thursday’s sharp rally it remained to be seen if the selling had any real momentum behind it. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure – core PCE – came in a touch softer but this was offset by a stronger-than-expected personal spending data. Investors were looking forward to another very busy week for macro data and central banks.

The USD/JPY outlook now hinges more on the decision from the Fed than the BoJ. Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY hit a new high for the year above 158.00, before pulling back a touch. The ECB’s decision will be watched closely next week as it has the potential to move the euro crosses sharply, including the EUR/JPY.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we discuss selected currency themes mainly from a macro viewpoint, but we also throw in a pinch of technical analysis here and there. In this week’s report, we will discuss a couple of dollar pairs and look forward to next week’s key events affecting the currency markets.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we discuss selected currency themes mainly from a macro viewpoint, but we also throw in a pinch of technical analysis here and there. In this week’s shortened report, we will discuss the USD/CAD pair outlook, and look forward to next week’s key events affecting this pair.

On Tuesday, the RBA Board meets and is widely expected to raise the cash rate. Once again, the main question will be how much.