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BOC Recap: USD/CAD Drops as Macklem Hints at Gradual Cuts in 2025
USD/CAD fell back toward key horizontal support near 141.00 as BOC Governor Macklem hinted at a 2025 pause in the interest rate cutting cycle
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: RBNZ to mull dovish cut in face of tariffs, Trump 2.0
The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.
Relentless USD rally extends after Powell hints at slower pace of cuts
The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.
Kashkari drops the 'p' word ahead of US CPI, USD/CHF stands firm
With Kashkari throwing the word ‘pause’ into the mix ahead of a US CPI report, traders should brace themselves for further USD gains should it come in hotter than expected.
GBP/USD in the crossfire of BOE, FOMC
We finally get a bit of a breather from the US election and can shift out attention to today’s BOE and FOMC meetings, making it an ideal time to catch up on GBP/USD.
AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/USD analysis: RBA mins down, RBNZ up next
AUD/JPY looks to Wall Street for its next directional move while NZD/USD is down for a fifth day ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting. But if they fail to deliver a dovish 50b cut, it could prompt profit taking from bears and weigh further on AUD/NZD.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD vulnerable to a pullback
The USD is surging and markets are betting that the RNZZ could cut rates by 100bp by December. Failure to do hint at such a move could see AUD/NZD track AUD/USD lower.
FOMC, BOE and BOJ meetings in focus: The Week Ahead
Next week brings three major central bank meetings, none of which seem to be on the same page policy wise. The Fed are expected to cut by 25bp and potentially set the record straight on another ‘50bp’ cut November, whereas there’s also an outside chance the BOJ may surprise with an interest rate hike given their renewed hawkish narrative. And while the Bank of England are expected to hold rates, a soft set of inflation figures could bring forward bets of a November cut.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD analysis: An RBNZ cut tomorrow may not be a slam dunk
NZD/USD has risen towards resistance despite speculation that the RBNZ could cut their cash rate by 25bp tomorrow, from 5.5% to 5.25%. And not for the first time, money markets and economists disagree.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA meeting, speeches and ISM in focus
Two RBA speeches and a monetary policy decision along with updated RBA forecasts are the highlights of the week for AUD/USD traders on the domestic front. Although risk-off tones and an ISM services report could prove to be the bigger drivers.
USD/JPY rattled on BOJ hike, GBP/USD, EUR/USD tread water ahead of FOMC
While the BOJ hiked more aggressively than expected, they fell short on their ETF tapering, rattling the yen during a bout of 2-way volatility. And the risk of volatility remains with a looming FOMC meeting.
FOMC, BOJ, BOE take the reigns of market drivers: The Week Ahead
Harris replacing Biden may not be a radical overhaul where policies are concerned, but it has certainly brought the Democrat’s prospects for maintaining power back from the brink of death. From a market perspective, it means Trump is no longer a ‘walk in’ President, and political headlines from the US are no longer driving sentiment for now. Thankfully, we have intertest rate decisions from the FOMC, BOE and BOJ to drive sentiment, along with NFP and Australia’s CPI report for good measure.
Powell testimony, US CPI, RBNZ and French Election: The Week Ahead
Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.
AUD/USD outlook: RBA mins point to quarterly CPI figures for policy clues
Concerns that headline employment figures could be lagging a worse picture alongside a lack of updated service inflation figures prompted the RBA to hold rates in June. And that makes the quarterly CPI report in a few weeks all the more important.
USD/CHF traders are nervous of being ‘caught short’ ahead of SNB
Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.
USD/JPY spikes higher post BOJ, but be wary of false moves above 158
Traders are clearly keeping a close eye on the 158 handle after USD/JPY spiked up to it. Note that we're yet to see a daily close above 158 since late April, which landed one day before the MOF first intervened this year.
BOE, SNB, RBA meetings, flash PMIs in focus: The Week Ahead
For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.
USD/JPY could be caught in the crossfire of FOMC, BOJ: The Week Ahead
With a key US inflation report being delivered less than six hours ahead of an FOMC meeting, it leaves plenty of potential for volatile swings leading into the headline event of the week. The Bank of Japan also announce their monetary policy decision, which puts USD/JPY onto the radar for currency traders.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap
AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.
AUD/USD falls, ASX probes record high on soft CPI figures, RBA-cut bets
Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key Support at 1.08 Ahead of Fed, NFP
EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.
A complete guide to the Bank of Canada and interest rates
As with any central bank, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) changes interest rates, it can have a knock-on effect to stocks, indices and currencies. Find out everything you need to know about the BOC and how it’s decisions impact financial markets.
Explainer: what are financial conditions and why they matter for traders?
This explainer looks at what determines financial conditions, the impact they have on markets and the real economy, along with the indicators you can watch to monitor how they’re evolving.