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20231218 - 001 - 01

S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises modestly as the market asses Trump's trade outlook

US stock futures are rising amid relief in the market from a slightly more measured inauguration speech. President Trump did not lay out concrete plans for universal tariffs, bringing initial relief. Since then Trump has mentioned plans to implement trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Oil extends losses on Trump's plans to increase output.

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Today 01:25 AM
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King Dollar's Trump Rally: What Does it Mean for Macro?

The U.S. Dollar just finished its strongest quarter in more than nine years, but a continuation of that theme may not be a great thing for U.S. equities, or the EUR/USD pair.

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S&P 500 analysis: Can US stocks continue positive momentum?

Investors are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including jobless claims and retail sales data today, for clues about the health of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory. For as long as we don’t see big surprises, mildly positive surprises in these areas could reinforce the market’s optimism and provide further fuel for the S&P 500.

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January 17, 2025 12:00 AM

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SPX Jumps, Yields Soften After CPI Data

Stocks are putting in a big move and 10-year Treasury Notes are showing the largest decline in yields since last August, just before stocks bottomed.

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January 16, 2025 03:07 AM
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Pre-CPI USD Price Action Setups: SPX Pullback after DXY Stretch

Tomorrow’s CPI report seems quite important given the run-higher in U.S. Treasury yields that’s taken place even as the Fed has continued to cut. This could have an outsized effect on USD-pairs, bonds and SPX.

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after PPI data & gradual trade tariff reports

U.S. stocks are heading for a positive open on Tuesday, boosted by softer US PPI data ahead of tomorrow's CPI figures and by hopes of gradual trade tariffs from Trump. PPI rose 3.3% YoY in December, below the 3.4% forecast. Reports that Trump's team could adopt a gradual approach to trade tariffs are also helping the mood and bringing treasury yields modestly lower. Fed speakers are in focus later today.

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January 15, 2025 01:17 AM
20231218 - 001 - 01

S&P 500 Finishes Off Election Gap as 10-Year Yields Jump After FOMC Cut

Yields on 10-year Treasuries have risen as much as 120 bps from the low just before the FOMC’s first rate cut of this cycle, and now it’s starting to negatively impact equities.

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January 14, 2025 02:30 AM
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S&P 500 outlook: Will strong NFP, rising yields trigger stocks sell-off?

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

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January 11, 2025 02:30 AM
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U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, SPX

The U.S. Dollar just finished its strongest quarter in nine years, and stock prices remain elevated, as well. This sets the stage for a volatile 2025 as explained in this webinar.

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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises with chip stocks leading the way

U.S. stocks are pointing to a higher start, adding to Friday's rally as investors buy into technology stocks based on continued optimism surrounding AI . Attention is also on the economic calendar, which ramps up this week as volumes pick up and trades return from the festive break. The highlight will be Friday's NFP report, which will be the first significant test for the markets.

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January 7, 2025 01:13 AM
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Top 2025 Trades: Bullish U.S. Equities (After a Pullback)

Stocks continued with strength in 2024 and with a market-friendly administration taking over in the United States, the backdrop is open for continuation of equity gains.

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January 1, 2025 06:30 PM
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2025 Forecast for US Equities (Fundamental)

It was a banner year for stocks and the last time the S&P 500 rallied by this much the index continued with a strong outing in 1999.

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December 24, 2024 12:33 AM
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S&P 500 forecast: Stocks rebound after FOMC-linked drop, but caution prevails

The recent bearish trend isn’t confined to the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced its first 10-day losing streak since 1974, shedding nearly 2,900 points over two weeks from its highest to its lowest points.

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December 20, 2024 01:23 AM
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S&P 500 forecast: US tech stocks maintain strong performance ahead of central bank meetings

After a strong performance throughout the year, there are still no major signs of the trend turning bearish for the S&P 500 heading into the final weeks of the 2024. For that reason, we have no reason to adjust our S&P 500 forecast to bearish just yet from a technical point of view, even macro concerns are plentiful.

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December 13, 2024 01:29 AM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after inflation data

U.S. stocks are heading to a higher open. US inflation data brought no surprises and bolstered expectations that the Fed would cut rates again next week. CPI rose 2.7% YoY, up from 2.6% in October, and core CPI rose 3.3%. The data cemented expectations that the Fed would cut rates in December, boosting stocks while the USD was unchanged.

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December 12, 2024 01:20 AM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX Churn to 6100

It was a slow grind higher for the S&P 500 last week, but the index touched the next major round level of 6100 and there’s no some open and unfilled gap around 6050.

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December 8, 2024 07:00 PM
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S&P 500 forecast: New highs for US stocks, DAX and Bitcoin

Investors are looking ahead of the all-important non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Ahead of this, there were little signs of waning appetite for risk, keeping the S&P 500 forecast and trend bullish. But as the index starts to drift higher and higher into overbought levels, investors will be wondering when the Trump trade will be fully priced in.

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December 6, 2024 03:34 AM

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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls as China - US trade tensions rise

U.S. stocks are edging lower on Tuesday after the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at record levels in the previous session. Sentiment is souring after news that China will begin banning the export of some rare minerals to the US in a tit-for-tat escalation of the tech war

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December 4, 2024 01:36 AM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of core-PCE data

U.S. stocks are mixed after stronger than forecast data and ahead of the key core PCE inflation report. US GDP was revised higher to 1.9% in Q3, up from 1.8%, boosted by solid consumer spending as inflation continued to cool. Meanwhile, jobless fell to 213k. The data points to the US economy being in a good place raising questions over the Fed's ability to cut rates. US core PCE is expected to rise to 2.8% YoY in October.

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November 28, 2024 01:36 AM
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Trump Bump Price Action Setups: Gold, Bitcoin, EUR/USD, SPX

It’s been a fast-evolving market since the Presidential election three weeks ago. But stocks remain higher, Bitcoin has put in a major move and gold is on its back foot.

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S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises despite Trump tariff threats

U.S. stocks are heading higher, building on recent gains, as investors weigh up the implications of Trump's tariffs on its top trade partners. President-elect Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Looking ahead, the minutes of the November Fed meeting will be released later and could provide more insight into the Fed's outlook for rates.

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November 27, 2024 01:00 AM
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S&P 500 (SPX) Bounce from Top of Trump Gap Leads to Test II of 6k

SPX has a sizable gap sitting below current price action and the top of that zone came into play for four consecutive days, while remaining well defended by bulls ahead of this week’s test of 6k.

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November 26, 2024 03:28 AM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls with PMI data up next

U.S. stocks are heading for a soft open, ending a broadly positive week on a more cautious tone ahead of the release of PMI data. The Dow Jones is on track to rise 1% this week, while the S&P 500 is set for 1.3% gains. The Nasdaq is up 1.6%. Attention is on US PMI data which is expected to show services and manufacturing PMIs rising in November.

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November 23, 2024 01:34 AM