SPX 500

US stocks are heading higher after US core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.2%. Meanwhile headline PCE ticked higher showing that inflationary rises are rising modestly. US stocks have fallen across the month, booking the worst monthly performance so far this year and the first quarterly decline in 2023 amid concerns that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.

After heavy selling pressure comes a big bounce. Ironically, today’s bounce in stocks appears to be triggered by softer-than-expected US data. The rationale is that weaker data will discourage the Fed from tightening its belt further, and simultaneously increases the chances of a sooner-than-expected rate cuts.

The VIX is one of the most widely-used measures of market volatility, for both the S&P 500 and wider stock market. So, what is the VIX, how is it calculated and how can you take your first position on volatility? Find out below.

US stocks are set to open higher after steep losses yesterday. Easing treasury yields and optimism surrounding a bipartisan deal in the Senate which could could the Federal government funded until mid-November. US durable goods orders are due shortly. September has been a brutal month for stocks, which are set to book the first quarterly decline this year.

US stocks sold off sharply ever since the Fed delivered that hawkish interest rate pause on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the major indices were still testing their lows after futures had slid along with global markets, extending losses from the previous session. The market is falling because of fears over the impact of rising bond yields. The sell-off may need to extend further before investors find value in stocks, especially in growth equities.

The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.

Stocks are edging higher as investors await another round of data which could provide further insight into the direction of inflation and the health of the US economy. PPI, retail sales and jobless claims figures come after US CPI inflation data yesterday painted a mixed picture. Arm will also be under the spot-light as the UK chip maker floats on the Nasdaq exchange at $51 per share.

US stocks are heading for a flat start after US headline inflation rose but core inflation cooled. CPI rose 3.7% YoY, ahead of forecasts and up from 3.2% in July. Core inflation cooled to 4.3%. The data comes as oil prices continue to rise, keeping prices at the pumps elevated, pushing inflation higher. The Fed is not expected to raise rates next week, but this data keeps a November rate hike on the table.

The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week lower. And that leaves us to wonder if some of the bears that were squeezed out over the rally over the past couple of months are now set to return to the market.

Markets are preparing for US retail sales data and earnings out from Home Depot, Walmart and Target.

Whilst China’s deflating CPI number brings hopes of weaker inflation elsewhere, a quick at the chart reminds us that inflation spends very little time in negative territory.

In a surprise move, US ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States long-term credit rating to AA+, making it the second time in history that the US has lost its triple-A rating. S&P 500 futures gapped lower.

USD/JPY hit a bout of volatility when the BOJ announced that they will aim to control the ‘flexibility’ of its 10-year target rate of +/- 0.5%, and allow the yields to rise above the ceiling by a “certain degree”. This is not a widening of the band as such, but a more relaxed approached to controlling the bond yield around it.

US stocks are pointing to a weaker open amid a cautious mood ahead of the FOMC rate decision and after mixed earnings from big tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 bps but the big question is whether the Fed will guide for another rate hike this year or whether Fed Chair Powell will adopt a less hawkish tone and hint to the conclusion of the aggressive tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Alphabet impressed and Microsoft disappointed with the latest quarterly results.

US stocks are pointing to a quietly higher start on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicks off its 2-day monetary policy meeting and as US corporate earnings ramp up with big tech names Alphabet and Microsoft set to report after the close. Earnings season has so far been relativrely upbeat raising hopes that the US could avoid a hard landing despite aggressive interest rate hikes. US consumer confidence data is expected to improve in July.

The S&P500 is set to open lower, as disappointing figures from Netflix and Tesla drag on the tech sector. While Tesla posted record revenues, the market is fretting over falling margins owing to a series of price cuts and after Musk hinted that more price cuts were coming. Netflix missed revenue forecasts. These stocks were part of the impressive rally which lifted the index YTD. Separately, jobless claims were better than expected raising the chances of the US avoiding a recession.

US stocks are heading for a modestly weaker open as investors digest slightly weaker than expected US retail sales along with more earnings from US banks. After Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup kicked off earnings on Friday, Morgan Stanley and Bank of American were in focus today. Continuing Friday's theme, higher interest rates boost the banks' NII. However, a drought in deal making is hurting investment banking arms.