![News hero gradient](/en-au/-/media/project/gain-capital/city-index/heros/news/news-article-lp-hero.jpg?h=278&iar=0&w=1920&hash=2106BEFFC875574DF2A687013745527E)
US 500
Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.
Sort by:
- Newest
- Popular
![Close-up of market chart showing downtrend](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/downtrend5.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=295D48F9942E924941C0C71459F96DB7)
S&P 500 Forecast: Could mixed US data soothe investor nerves?
The robust rally in the first half of the year set high expectations, particularly in the technology sector. While some sector rotation into energy and financials occurred last week, it wasn't sufficient to prevent a broader market decline. Disappointing earnings from key players like Alphabet and Tesla have led to revised investor expectations.
![stocks_02](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/0-news-and-analysis-new-header-images-2023/stock-markets/stocks_02.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=2C35A822209E6814F4DD4BBD06691836)
VIX surges, Wall Street extends losses, ASX futures tumble
Another turbulent session on Wall Street saw the Dow Jones snap a 6-day winning streak, the VIX rise to a 12-week high and drag ASX 200 futures down accordingly.
![Market trader analysing data](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/trader-1.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=CE5CADEF05EF21ED2A855FCF723F176E)
S&P 500 Forecast: A Path to Recovery After Tech Wreck
While the tech sector's struggles have dominated headlines, it's crucial to note that the broader stock market's performance is not solely dependent on the "magnificent 7" group of tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its fourth consecutive record high on Wednesday, driven by sector rotation. The small-cap Russell 2000 index has also posted substantial gains lately, spurred by last week's inflation report showing consumer prices falling to 3.0% year-over-year in June.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
S&P 500 forecast: Tech stocks continue to defy gravity
Supporting stocks today was news of another weaker-than-expected inflation report. Treasury yields fell as a slowdown in producer prices measure of inflation bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.
![stocks_04](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/0-news-and-analysis-new-header-images-2023/stock-markets/stocks_04.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=FE831853A4911BC66E8C7D1F0A04AC8F)
VIX logs wild swings in open interest (again), S&P 500 seeks direction
It is the second week in a row that open interest on VIX futures notched up a volatile swing, according to the latest COT report. If the VIX can remain low, perhaps we'll see the S&P 500 reach new highs, unless US economic data deteriorates too quickly and rings recessionary bells.
![Graphic of trading data chart](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/charts6v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=79065A765381BF99AAA24A7A48E0DF53)
USD, Wall Street, gold: Risk seems to be falling apart at the seams
I suspect we're seeing the early moves of a pullback of appetite for risk in general, which saw traders push Wall Street indices and gold lower on Wednesday thanks to weak treasury demand. And it seems to be paving the way for the next leg higher for the USD.
![Close-up of market chart showing downtrend](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/downtrend5.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=295D48F9942E924941C0C71459F96DB7)
S&P 500 outlook is starting to turn slightly negative
With a lack of any fresh bullish stimulus and following months of solid gains, we could see a bit of a correction. So, in my opinion, the S&P 500 outlook is not looking too great at current levels and without a sizeable correction.
![stocks_02](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/0-news-and-analysis-new-header-images-2023/stock-markets/stocks_02.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=2C35A822209E6814F4DD4BBD06691836)
These S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones ‘rallies’ look made to fade
We have four full trading days left in the month, and odds favour another bullish month for US indices. However, price action on the daily timeframe has alerted me to a potential pullback, while VIX futures and market positioning are also sending smoke signals to be aware of.
![Gold bars article image for an article on Precious metals and Gold](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/gold5.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=A587DB8133D15385E3F67BDE7C4237C4)
Gold, Wall Street slammed as PMI data stifles hopes of Fed rate cuts
The record highs created for gold and Wall Street this week appear to have been bad omens, with sharp bearish reversals forming and rate-cut bets being slashed.
![](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/crypto8.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=F43C38B1EDCD3550E5891BC5AA62A8A3)
Bitcoin bounces in style as Wall Street hits new highs
On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.
![Wall Street sign with a building in background](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/trading-floor-2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=58E9A5CEE5992B1C70BBA60E0CB9CCE6)
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Forecast for the Week Ahead: Into the FOMC
It was a come back type of week for stocks, even with another hot inflation report. But next week brings the Fed and markets are still holding on to hopes for 2024 rate cuts.
![stocks_09](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/0-news-and-analysis-new-header-images-2023/stock-markets/stocks_09.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=D5E4F3116EF09C26CD902CC16164FC9F)
S&P 500 analysis: Will the recovery hold as focus turns to tech earnings?
S&P analysis: As markets have started Q2 poorly, amid interest rate uncertainty and raised geopolitical risks, investors are relying on earnings to provide boost, starting with Netflix today. S&P 500 technical analysis suggests more losses could be on the way, with 5,000 on the bears' radars.
![trading floor](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/trading-floor-1v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=B117FC3857D9A6489B3E262DDAE661A7)
S&P 500 rally threatened as geopolitics enters the ring: The Week Ahead
Tensions surrounding the Middle East has unsettled markets. US indices such as the S&P 500 are on track for their worst week of the year, crude oil reached a fresh YTD high and the risk-off sentiment was even enough to knock gold from its record. Traders therefore need to be on guard for headline risks surrounding the Middle East next week, alongside the usual bouts of economic data and central bank meetings.
![stocks_03](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/0-news-and-analysis-new-header-images-2023/stock-markets/stocks_03.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=923B4CCDCB00E6B871645B0D49EE3840)
S&P 500 analysis: Sticky inflation concerns could derail stocks rally
S&P 500 analysis: Can the rally continue even as yields rise? Rising crude oil prices pose additional risk to inflation outlook. Technical analysis shows potential crack in bullish trend, but confirmation is still needed.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
S&P 500 analysis: Index ends +10% in Q1 after a strong Q4 – what now?
Can the stock market rally continue after a strong performance in the first quarter? As we start Q2, Chinese PMIs, German CPI and US non-farm payrolls are among the upcoming week’s highlights. S&P 500 technical analysis shows strong bullish trend, pointing to further strength.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
S&P 500 taps 5k record, ASX futures to extend bull-flag breakout?
The S&P 500 tapped 5k for the first time ever. But do traders have the appetite to extend its trend heading into the weekend? For now, our focus is on a bull flag pattern on the ASX 1-hour chart.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
S&P 500 hits record high, futures hint at break above 5,000
The S&P 500 reached a fresh record high and stopped just 5 points short of the 5,000 milestone thanks to strong earnings. But futures charts and market positioning suggest the S&P cash market could break higher.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
S&P 500 analysis: Stock markets starting to look a little overstretched – correction looming?
The key question today is whether we are near at least a temporary peak in the ongoing phase of the rally, or if we persist in moving forward despite apprehensions about valuations, the developments in the Red Sea, and the postponement of interest rate cuts.
![Downwards trend with red arrow](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/04/downtrend-3.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=F0FB45598A818875BB01685A2820CC93)
S&P 500 outlook: Technical Tuesday – January 16, 2024
S&P 500 outlook: Hawkish repricing of rate cuts could undermine overstretched equities. Fed Governor Chris Waller says 3 rate cuts appropriate (not 6 the markets are after) which is potentially bearish news. S&P 500 technical analysis suggests index is near extremely over stretched levels.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
Strong payroll data doesn’t deter equity bulls with Nasdaq up and Russell 2000 down
Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
Dow challenges peak, Bitcoin’s mainstream moment is expected
The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
Oil prices rallies above $70 support, Russell 2000 dips on profit-taking
Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.
![Research](/en-au/-/media/research/global/news-analysis/featured-image/2021/03/uptrend-2-v2.jpg?h=300&w=1170&hash=DD6A19CD0F11C3BD981230847FCD7DC4)
Nasdaq tumbles as bonds sell off, Gold holds historic highs
Equity, bond, and gold investors are pricing in large rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, but this week’s jobs data could spoil the fun. A bullish December for stocks might have pulled forward the typical January rally, spurred by the belief that the Fed is about to pivot. US Treasuries sold off in morning trade, with worries about the appetite to digest the major volume of new issues. There is some risk of disappointment in the interest rate outlook, notably with commodity prices indicating persistent inflation so there is less chance of a rate-cutting bonanza.