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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Heavy as Tariff Shock Fades, US Data Softens

USD/CAD is under pressure as soft US data and fading tariff fears shift sentiment. With Canada’s economy surprising to the upside, is the pair setting up for a deeper unwind?

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Bullish-yen bets surge at record pace, USD outflows continue: COT report

63k long yen contracts last week between large speculators and asset managers, marking the fastest weekly pace of longs on record for both sets of traders. And with traders also shying away from bullish USD bets, it paints a bearish picture for USD/JPY.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: AUD/NZD Implied vols rise into RBA, RBNZ

The RBA and RBNZ are expected to cut their cash rates this week, though the 50bp RBNZ cut should see their interest rate drop back beneath the RBA's. This has seen implied volatility for AUD/NZD move higher.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Downtrend Intact as Yen Sensitivity to BoJ Grows

Yen traders take note—USD/JPY has been moving more in step with Japanese rates than US yields. With key Japanese data and BoJ speakers on deck, could this spark the next leg lower?

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EUR/USD forecast: Forex Friday - February 14, 2025

The EUR/USD forecast has improved a little this week. Not because we have seen any major improvements in European data or a sharp deterioration in US data, but more so because Trump’s reciprocal tariffs won’t be applied immediately after all. Instead, they are set to take effect in April. What’s more, Trump’s tone was far from combative.

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British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD, FTSE 100 Face Uncertainty as US Tariff Shift Looms

GBP/USD and FTSE 100 futures are at critical levels as US tariff risks cloud the outlook. With Washington targeting VAT in its trade assessments, UK markets may have underestimated the fallout. Could this be a turning point for sterling and stocks?

Uptrend

EUR/USD forecast: Ukraine war optimism countered by reciprocal tariffs fears

Despite struggling today, the EUR/USD forecast has improved a little, owing to optimism about the end of Ukraine war. PPI and jobless claims are up next.

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February 13, 2025 12:30 PM
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Hang Seng Tech, USD/CNH: Tide Turning on Bearish China Sentiment?

Hang Seng Tech is surging, USD/CNH is breaking lower, and sentiment toward Chinese assets is shifting fast. With tech valuations still below historical averages and momentum running hot, is this the start of a sustained rally or just another false dawn? Key levels and setups to watch

Uptrend

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/JPY on the Brink of a Bullish Breakout

A sharp rebound has AUD/JPY eyeing a breakout after months of suppression. With price action increasingly tied to US-Japan rate differentials and bond market moves, could surging yields be the final push bulls need?

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February 12, 2025 11:08 PM

Best day of the year for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY on hot CPI, peace talks

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine alongside a hot set of US inflation figures were the winning combo for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY bulls, both of which posted their most bullish days of the year.

Forex trading

USD/JPY forecast: Attention turns to US CPI as yen drops across the board

The focus for is now turning to data with the release of US CPI today, PPI tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. The USD/JPY will get a boost should inflation data surprise to the upside.

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February 12, 2025 11:24 AM
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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY look set to extend their bounce (to various degrees)

A weaker US dollar and Japanese yen has allowed GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to regain some lost ground. And both pairs can likely build upon these early gains, GBP/USD could be the outperformer.

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February 12, 2025 03:29 AM
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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Tests Resistance as Yield Differentials Widen

USD/JPY has flipped bullish as widening US-Japan yield differentials fuel fresh upside momentum. With key resistance at 153.38 under threat, all eyes turn to the US CPI report. A strong print could reinforce the rally, but a miss may stall the momentum.

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February 12, 2025 02:58 AM
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USD/JPY, EUR/JPY mean revert higher as yen bulls loosen their grip

A slight risk-on tone weakened the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Tuesday on news from around Ukraine and Russia, while Powell subtly hinted that hikes are not off the table during his testimony to the House. And this saw USD/JPY and JPY, along with other yen pairs, recoup some of last week's losses.

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EUR/USD forecast: Euro rebounds but pressure remains amid tariff threats

The US dollar weakened slightly against most major currencies except the yen, though the overarching trend for the greenback retains a modestly bullish bias. The EUR/USD forecast is thus still modestly bearish, even if the pair has shown a slight rebound from around the 1.0300 handle.

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February 11, 2025 12:00 PM
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British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Vulnerable as Mann Explains Dovish Deviation

Bank of England's Catherine Mann has shifted from hawk to dove, citing weakening demand as the key reason. This surprising move signals potential downside risks for GBP/USD, especially if other MPC members join her dovish stance. Upcoming UK GDP, inflation, retail sales and unemployment data looms large for traders.

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February 11, 2025 01:54 AM
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US CPI Preview: Will Trade War Fears Push Headline Inflation Back Above 3%?

Ahead of US CPI, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is rallying off range support, opening the door for extended gains toward 109.00 if the CPI reading comes in hotter-than-expected.

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February 10, 2025 07:55 PM

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GBP/USD Forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – February 10, 2025

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, US CPI data, and key corporate earnings due this week, the GBP/USD forecast remains cautiously bearish following last week’s dovish rate cut by the Bank of England.

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Bullish USD sentiment wanes, GBP/USD bears have a rethink - COT Report

We're seeing early signs that net-long bullish exposure on the USD may have peaked. While this may not necessarily mean a peak in the USD price, it does at least suggest the trend could slow or move sideways.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Upside may be capped, but a cycle low could be in

The breakout to a 5-year low on Monday was short lived, before AUD/USD went on to recover as much as 3.5% by the day's high. Given the extended bearish period seen since Q4, perhaps an important cycle low has been set.

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USD/JPY Forecast: Bearish Signals Strengthen as Powell, Inflation, and Trade Risks Loom

Rate differentials still steer USD/JPY, but trade war fears are adding another layer of risk. With Powell, CPI, and key auctions ahead, is more downside on the cards?

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EUR/USD Forecast: Focus Turns to US Inflation Data in Week Ahead

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, US CPI data, and key corporate earnings due this week, the EUR/USD forecast remains cautiously bearish.

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Dollar forecast: NFP and hot inflation expectations trigger DXY rebound - Forex Friday

Friday's data showing strong wages growth and hot inflation expectations, and ongoing expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, means the Fed is likely to remain on pause for a long time. Against this backdrop, the US dollar forecast remains bullish.