Forex

AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?

The US PCE inflation report is arguably the event of the week, and with traders having vigorously sold the US dollar ahead of it I am left wondering if it is a case of ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact’ – especially if it comes on hot. And with AUD/USD and gold stalling around key levels on Wednesday, the potential for mean reversion seems apparent.

With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

EUR/USD outlook supported by weakening US dollar, which will be put under the spotlight by GDP and core PCE inflation data this week. Weaker Eurozone inflation data could paradoxically lift EUR/USD to 1.10 as technical analysis shows path of least resistance remains to the upside.

GBP/USD has continued to take advantage of a weaker US dollar and rise to an 11-week high. And with a high level of volume activity overhead, we see the potential for a move to 1.27.

A sharp reversal on USD/JPY last week brings a potential break above 150 in to focus, assuming the US dollar can find a bid and USD/CNH continues to hold above its 200-day MA. Meanwhile, crude oil has handed back all of its 2023 gains and it is a very fine line before the bias for a move to $80 becomes invalidated.

The USD/CAD is an interesting pair to watch as it tests a major support area ahead of the release of Canadian inflation data and FOMC minutes later.

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

We're on the lookout for any hawkish undertone in today's RBA minutes - given the RBA's statement was deemed to be less hawkish than expected. Failure to do so could see AUD/USD hand back some of it's gains. The Nasdaq is also following its seasonaly tendency to rise into Thanksgiving.

The EUR/USD is likely to be among the more active currency pairs this week, which I am expecting to potentially rise to 1.10 handle amid improved risk sentiment and recent falls in US yields and dollar. Although the economic situation in the eurozone remains far from convincing, markets may have gotten ahead of itself with regards to ECB rate cuts being priced in as early as April.

With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.

With a bullish engulfing week and day for AUD/USD on Friday, can the Aussie muster up the strength for a breakout above key resistance? And if losses on USD/CNH are anything to go by, perhaps USD/JPY is preparing to follow suit.

The Japanese yen has finally found some much needed support this week. It is all to do with the falls in global bond yields, and the unwinding of carry trades. US yields slumped earlier this week after US CPI fell more than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed (and other central banks) will no longer raise rates further

The big story this week has been on the inflation front, with CPI in the US and UK both falling faster than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed and other central banks will no longer raise rates further. With a couple of other key US economic pointers also coming in weaker this week, such as industrial production and jobless claims data, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, this has led to speculation that the Fed may start cutting rates sooner than expected in 2024