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GBP/USD: What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger
GBP/USD is down only modestly despite so much negative news...
Non-Farm Payrolls more than double estimates! What recession?
The US Non-Farm Payroll data released this morning showed that 528,000 jobs were added to the economy during July. This is more then twice the estimate of 250,000.
Forex Friday: USD/JPY, Yields and peak inflation?
In this week’s edition, we discuss the re-pricing of future rate hikes and potential for peak inflation, and how all this is helping to fuel a rally in zero- and low-yielding assets.
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Czech National Bank leaves rates unchanged despite soaring inflation; USD/CZK
Will the USD/CZK continue to move higher? It could, however it may have to wait until after the July inflation reading next week.
Canadian jobs report expected to be better than June’s negative print; USD/CAD
If the Employment Change is better than expected, this will help give the BOC confidence to hike again when it meets in September.
BoE’s grim forecasts weigh on pound
…But there’s hope for GBP/USD bulls – the dollar and bond yields are weakening again.
Bank of England Preview
Ahead of the BoE decision, the GBP/USD has established a base around low $1.20s.
Fed speakers out in force with more hawkish tone; USD/JPY
The correlation between USD/JPY and 10-year yields has come back in line and is almost in “strong” territory on the daily timeframe.
Heed the SNB’s warning if inflation reading is high!
The SNB has already given warnings that it could take monetary policy action between meetings if necessary.
Is the Kiwi ready to outperform the Aussie? AUD/NZD
Though the RBA hiked rates 50bps, it also served up a less hawkish statement than expected at its August meeting, causing Aussie to come off.
RBA delivers dovish surprise to undercut the recent AUDUSD rally
At its monthly meeting this afternoon, the Reserve Bank Board raised its official cash rate for a third consecutive time by 50bp from 1.35% to 1.85%.
Currency Pair of the Week: GBP/AUD
Both the RBA and the BOE meet this week, which could cause volatility in GBP/AUD.
EUR/USD eyes breakout as US manufacturing prices, construction spending tumble
Today’s US data is consistent with what the markets have been pricing in over the last few weeks: namely, peak inflation and falling economic activity.
ECI and PCE are hot for June. What does it mean for the Fed?
Today’s inflation data was higher than expected and the Fed is walking a thin line between lowering inflation and pushing growth lower.
Japan data dump won’t help the Yen; USD/JPY
If the data dump later comes out as expected, will the BOJ turn less dovish? It's unlikely.
US Advanced GDP for Q2 is negative; Is the US in a recession?
The textbook definition of a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. However, many economists don’t abide by that rule.
GBP/USD could revisit 1.25 as US recession confirmed
GDP was quite poor, so there won’t be a hattrick of 75 basis point hikes in September, that’s for sure.
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Technical view: CAD/JPY’s rally is lagging…are we seeing a reversal?
Fundamental trends show no imminent signs of reversing, but CAD/JPY’s chart nonetheless suggests that there may be an opportunity for one or both of these currencies to reverse some of this year’s moves.
Forex and interest rates: how do rate hikes and cuts impact currencies?
Interest rates are an important driver for forex markets so it’s important that traders understand the effects of hikes and cuts on currencies. Let’s look at how interest rates affect currencies and a popular forex interest rate trading strategy.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Barclays
EUR/USD rises post-Fed, with German inflation, US GDP in focus. Barclays is down after H1 profits fall.
European Open: German inflation reports in focus, brent hits resistance
Several regional inflation report are released for Germany at 09:00 which ca provide a lead on what to expect for the German and eurozone inflation reports.
EU consumer confidence readings collapse to record lows; EUR/GBP
The increased inflation and fears of low supply of natural gas, combined with risk of a recession, are causing consumer sentiment in the Eurozone to fall to record lows.
Singapore swing, anyone?
We’ve noticed an interesting technical lsetup on USD/SGD, although with the FOMC meeting just hours away it could be a make or break moment for the setup.