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AUD/USD looks set to pop higher, Nikkei and Nasdaq diverge

Forex markets mostly retraced against Wednesday's CPI and FOMC moves. And that may have set AUD/USD up nicely for a cheeky long into the weekend. The Nikkei however is down for a third day after failing below key resistance levels.


S&P 500 forecast: Tech stocks continue to defy gravity

Supporting stocks today was news of another weaker-than-expected inflation report. Treasury yields fell as a slowdown in producer prices measure of inflation bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.

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June 13, 2024 03:00 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei pause at resistance as US CPI, FOMC looms: Asian Open

The next 24 hours will be the eight time in 10 years that a US CPI report lands on the same day as an FOMC meeting, and it has traders on tenterhooks. Today we look at USD/JPY, Nikkei 225 and the ASX 200.

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DAX forecast dims amid fallout from EU elections

We have seen further widening of the bond yield spreads between German and French debt today. Investors are clearly worried about a sustained period of political uncertainty and are therefore seeking haven assets and reducing their risk exposure.

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June 11, 2024 02:30 PM

USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Traders may have reduced net-long exposure to USD futures in aggregate, but they remain net-long and a bullish reversal week formed on the USD index. We also take a look at GBP/USD, gold, WTI crude oil and US indices positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100).


Nasdaq 100 forecast: Will AI optimism fuel breakout in Apple?

US technology stocks extended their gains shortly after the open on Wall Street, helping the Nasdaq 100 to add to Wednesday's surge to new record highs, before pulling back slightly on profit-taking ahead of Friday’s key US jobs report.


ASX 200 looks set to benefit from Wall Street’s record highs: Asian Open

Soft employment data saw Wall Street march to a record high on bets of a soft NFP report, and that should filter through to gains for the ASX 200 today.

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June 6, 2024 12:02 AM

USD/HKD holds the clues for the Hang Seng’s next move

The inverted relationship between USD/HKD and the Hang Seng remains strong. And with the latter retracing -92% over the past month and risk of the US dollar falling further, perhaps the Hang Seng is due a bounce.


VIX logs wild swings in open interest (again), S&P 500 seeks direction

It is the second week in a row that open interest on VIX futures notched up a volatile swing, according to the latest COT report. If the VIX can remain low, perhaps we'll see the S&P 500 reach new highs, unless US economic data deteriorates too quickly and rings recessionary bells.

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June 4, 2024 03:33 AM

Nikkei 225 tracks Wall Street higher, gold bears eye another drop

Asian indices were quick to rally out of the gate on Monday after a strong lead from Wall Street, sending Nikkei futures 1% higher. Gold looks worse for wear and we eye a potential move down to $2300.

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June 3, 2024 03:33 AM
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Nasdaq 100 forecast: Stocks drop ahead of busy week

Friday’s Core PCE data failed to reduce fears over "higher for longer" narrative on interest rates, ahead of a busy week for economic events. Risk appetite is also waning amid a lack of major fresh bullish catalysts.

ASX 200, Nikkei 225 futures diverge from Wall Street: Asian Open

Downwardly revised GDP for the US in Q1 weighed on Wall Street indices ahead of a key inflation report, yet the ASX and Nikkei managed to bounce form their lows. We look at where we think they might head next.

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S&P 500 outlook starting to turn a little bearish

Concerns over prolonged high interest rates have started to undermine stocks a little, with risk appetite waning amid a lack of major fresh bullish catalysts ahead of Friday’s publication of core PCE price index. A potential close below 5250 today could turn the S&P 500 outlook bearish in the short-term perspective.

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May 30, 2024 05:00 PM
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S&P 500 outlook is starting to turn slightly negative

With a lack of any fresh bullish stimulus and following months of solid gains, we could see a bit of a correction. So, in my opinion, the S&P 500 outlook is not looking too great at current levels and without a sizeable correction.

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May 29, 2024 05:25 PM

The Nikkei 225 has been added to my watch (out below) list

The Nikkei has been grinding higher in recent weeks, but with momentum turning lower at resistance and asset managers are increasing longs, perhaps it's ready for a leg or two lower.

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May 29, 2024 07:30 AM

These S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones ‘rallies’ look made to fade

We have four full trading days left in the month, and odds favour another bullish month for US indices. However, price action on the daily timeframe has alerted me to a potential pullback, while VIX futures and market positioning are also sending smoke signals to be aware of.

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May 28, 2024 04:01 AM
Close-up of market chart showing downtrend

S&P 500 outlook: Stocks could resume drop after Thursday’s reversal

The short-term S&P 500 outlook could turn bearish if we see some downside follow-through below Thursday’s range when it formed a rather large outside candle after the fresh breakout to a new all-time high was met with strong selling, despite Nvidia’s strong showing.

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Gold, Wall Street slammed as PMI data stifles hopes of Fed rate cuts

The record highs created for gold and Wall Street this week appear to have been bad omens, with sharp bearish reversals forming and rate-cut bets being slashed.

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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Markets pull back despite Nvidia rally

It has been a rather mixed day for risk assets. Things started brightly for US markets, but at the time of writing the major indices were sharply either lower or in the case of the Nasdaq well off its earlier highs. Our Nasdaq 100 analysis could turn bearish in the short-term outlook, if the index closes today’s session lower.


Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Room to Run if NVDA Earnings Beat?

Nvidia is expected to report $5.18 in EPS on $22.9B in revenue, but the company’s outlook for the rest of the year will be even more significant for the Nasdaq 100 as a whole.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

USD/CHF looks set to lead the USD index higher, EUR/USD and AUD/USD lower

My bias for the US dollar index to rise to 105 remains in place, even if prices are grinding higher at a frustrating pace. But with USD/CHF hinting at a breakout, it could point to near-term weakness for EUR/USD and AUD/USD.

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May 22, 2024 05:59 AM

Bitcoin traders should track Wall Street, Nvidia for directional cue

With bitcoin effectively taking its general trend from the stock market these days, traders should take note that US indices are mixed around all-time highs and Nvidia (a key driver of the Nasdaq) trades below resistance ahead of a key earnings report.

Bitcoin bounces in style as Wall Street hits new highs

On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.