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WTI crude oil, ASX 200 analysis: Asian Open – 26/09/2023
Price action remains choppy on WTI crude oil's daily timeframe, which further backs up the case that last week's bearish reversal candle marked the beginning of a correction. The question now is how deep can it retrace before dip buyers seek to return in force? The ASX 200 has shown tentative signs of stability above 7,000, but given the bearish breakdown seen last week we prefer to seek bearish setups around resistance levels.
S&P 500 suffered its worst week in six months: Asian Open – 25/09/2023
Weak PMIs on Friday were the latest economic data sets to warn of a slowdown and weighed on global indices accordingly. The S&P 500 suffered its worst week in six months and shows the potential to fall further. Although support levels nearby suggest it may try to bounce head of its next leg lower.
USD/JPY falters around 148 ahead of CPI and BOJ: Asian Open 22/09/2023
The US dollar handed back its post-FOMC gains despite surging bond yields, which saw USD/JPY form a 2-bar reversal day after a false break of 148. And this leaves the potential for a deeper pullback towards its 20-day EMA before its trend resumes (keep in mind Japan's CPI report and BOJ interest rate decision is in focus today).
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open
At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…
WTI crude oil finally set to mean revert? Asian Open - 20/09/2023
Whilst WTI crude oil made light work of breaking above $90, it faltered around $95 and left a potential key reversal day below historical highs. And with the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than money markets are currently pricing in, it could shake the bullish oil tree and trigger a correction against its strong trend.
Gold bulls reclaim key levels, ASX 200 pulls back to support: Asian Open
Gold provided a false break and recovery bac above its 200-day EMA last week, and Monday's trade saw gold find support back above its 200-day MA. The ASX 200 handed back around half of Friday's gains, although there's a reasonable chance it might be able to find support around 7200 given the 200-day EMA resides in the area.
Gold rallied from its 200-day EMA on Friday: Asian Open – 18/09/2023
Gold prices enjoyed their best day in 13 on Friday and rallied from the 200-day EMA, after finding support above 1900 on Thursday. Yet key resistance levels loom overhead meaning we'd prefer to see a pullback before reconsidering longs ahead of key events this week including the FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD headed for 105? WTI crude oil hits YTD high: Asian Open
The ECB delivered a relatively dovish hike whilst US data once again outperformed. And that was the perfect catalyst to send EUR/USD to a 4-low (and speculative positioning suggests there may be further downside to come). WTI crude oil rose above $90, and it appears to have more fuel in the tank to perhaps head for the October high.
AUD/USD holds 64c, bonds retrace post CPI, jobs up next: Asian Open
US CPI was higher than expected, although bond yields pulled back in what could be a sign that investors are more concerned over a recession compare with a 'soft landing' for the US. But if yields continue to pull back it might take some steam out of the dollar rally. And that could help AUD/USD, which has remained reliant to breaks below 64c.
Gold probes the 200-day EMA ahead of US CPI: Asian Open – 13/09/2023
A stronger US dollar weighed on gold prices on Tuesday, but the 200-day EMA came to the rescue. We suspect we could be in for some quiet or choppy trade heading into today's key CPI report, but if gold can drop some clues around a key resistance zone, perhaps it can provide an opportunity before the event.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 lift themselves from key lows: Asian Open – 12/09/2023
AUD/USD managed to hold above its cycle lows last week, despite the combination of stronger US data and weaker data from China. And that made it a prime candidate to recover yesterday as the US dollar loosened its bullish grip and China delivered strong loan data. We also note that the ASX 200 snapped its 4-day losing streak and formed a likely swing low at trend support.
EUR/USD fell for an eighth consecutive week: Asian Open – 11/09/2023
EUR/USD fell for an eight consecutive week, a bearish sequence not seen since 2014. Yet with prices beneath the 200-day MA and 200-day EMA, we're looking for a bounce into resistance before considering fresh shorts to improve the potential reward to risk ratio.
Gold stabilises around support, USD/CNH hints at breakout: Asian Open
Gold has pulled back to an important support zone between the 200-day averages, and with yields pulling back perhaps it can muster up the strength for a burst higher. USD/CNH is also on the cusp of a breakout despite earlier reports that China's state banks are actively selling the pair.
Dow Jones, ASX 200 cling to support after strong ISM report: Asian Open
A strong ISM report weighed on US stock markets on Wednesday, which saw the Down Jones retrace for a third day and drag SPI 200 futures lower overnight. Yet both the Dow Jones and ASX 200 find themselves at interesting levels of potential support.
Gold, EUR/AUD analysis: Asian Open – 05/09/2023
Outside of China's equity markets, ranges were limited on Monday due to the long Labor Day weekend in the US. But with economic data picking up and volumes likely to be replenished, hopefully volatility will follow. We take a look at a couple of potential setups on the gold and EUR/AUD daily charts.
USD/JPY analysis: Asian Open – 4th September 2023
USD/JPY managed to produce a bullish engulfing / outside day on Friday, despite a mixed Nonfarm payrolls report seeing money markets price in a 93% probability of the Fed holding rates steady at their next meeting.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY analysis: Asian Open - 01/09/23
The combination of a verbal BOJ warning shot and relatively dovish comments from an ECB official saw EUR/JPY suffer its worst session in five weeks on Thursday. Given the increased odds that yen weakness is very near (or at) a turning point, I am going to stick my neck on the line and speculate that EUR/JPY has topped for now. We also take a look at the USD/JPY 1hour chart ahead of today’s NFP report.
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AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH analysis: Asian Open – 29/08/2023
Despite an exciting start to Monday's Asian session, which saw some of China's stock market indices rally over 4% (and then hand much of it back), it was a quiet session in Europe and the US due to the UK public holiday. USD/JPY has stalled around a key resistance zone. USD/CNH looks appealing to bullish eyes, and AUD/USD (aka "the battler") is refusing to simply roll over and fall below 64 cents.
WTI crude oil, AUD/USD analysis: Asian Open – 28/08/2023
Jerome Powell delivered a slightly more hawkish message than expected at Jackson Hole, by suggesting that the Fed may need to raise rates at least one more time. This helped the US dollar rise for a sixth week and send the 2-year yield to a 17-year high. Still, we see the potential for AUD/USD to hold above key support and WTI crude oil rise to $82.
USD/JPY perks up, ASX 200 slides ahead of Jackson Hole: Asian Open – 25/08/2023
The US dollar was broadly higher alongside US yields ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. ASX 200 futures tracked Wall Street lower and USD/JPY regained its footing.
AUD/USD and gold bears get squeezed on weak US PMIs: Asian Open 24/08/2023
Flash PMIs dominated sentiment across the European and US sessions with downside disappointments. The US dollar index (DXY) topped just below 104 and closed back beneath the July high, hinting at a false break ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. And this saw EUR/USD rebound from 1.08 and AUD/USD and gold bears continue to cover shorts.
Gold withstands USD strength (but for how long?): Asian Open – 23/08/23
The US dollar tracked the short-end of the yield curve higher on Tuesday, although gold managed to withstand dollar strength with spot prices flirting with a break above 1900. But having looked look at gold futures, I suspect the next level of support for spot gold prices could be around $1870 if momentum reverts lower.