Asian Open

USD/JPY formed a potential bullish reversal day at key support ahead of today's US inflation report. With decent GDP figures also helping crude oil prices post a decent day's gain.

The build-up of hawkish expectations of the BOJ alongside the Wall Street slide certainly made its mark on AUD/JPY which fell to an 11-week low, stopping just shy of the 101 handle. AUD/USD bears made light work of the 200-day MA.

Hawkish comments from Japan's government officials and a general unwind of carry trades sent the yen higher across the board on Tuesday, with USD/JPY hinting at a fresh cycle low as we head towards US GDP and inflation data this week.

AUD/USD tracked copper prices lower for a sixth day, during its worst day in six weeks. Whilst both markets shows the potential for further losses, these may not be the ideal levels for bears to enter.

Another turbulent session on Wall Street saw the Dow Jones snap a 6-day winning streak, the VIX rise to a 12-week high and drag ASX 200 futures down accordingly.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) appears to be taking full advantage of the path of least resistance by intervening when the US dollar and yields are under pressure. And their latest suspected intervention alongside dovish Fed comments saw USD/JPY break trend support and send DXY below its 200-day MA.

AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.

The post-CPI selloff of the USD has wound down, and price action suggests a bounce cold be due. The ASX has surpassed 8k for the first time on record, and bulls may be keen to seek dips.

Another day, another handle for USD/JPY which rose to a fresh multi-decade higher. Bond yields also continued to rally after the Biden-Trump debate, which has markets concerned that a more inflationary presidency under Trump seems the more likely outcome.

Japan’s officials would like to think they have slowed the decline of the yen to a degree on Thursday, following their latest threats of intervention. However, traders could simply be taking a cautious approach ahead of Friday’s US inflation report, which is keeping USD/JPY just below its 38-year high.

The Hang Seng enjoyed its best day in three months. And with key support levels for the China A50 and ASX 200 holding, perhaps they can try to close the gap this week.

Weak US retail sales alongside a relatively hawkish RBA statement gave AUD/USD a decent lift from range lows and further strengthened a case for a top to form on USD/JPY.

The US dollar index formed a small bearish inside day after once again failing to hold onto gains above 105.20 for the second day in a row. This could allow for some mean reversion for soe of its FX peers, and for today we have a potential AUD/USD long and USD/JPY short in focus.

Forex markets mostly retraced against Wednesday's CPI and FOMC moves. And that may have set AUD/USD up nicely for a cheeky long into the weekend. The Nikkei however is down for a third day after failing below key resistance levels.

We expected a particularly volatile session on Wednesday, and it did not disappoint. Although not all moves were clear cut. New highs for Wall Street and a lower USD helped AUD/USD surge. Yet like USD/JPY, resistance looms.

The next 24 hours will be the eight time in 10 years that a US CPI report lands on the same day as an FOMC meeting, and it has traders on tenterhooks. Today we look at USD/JPY, Nikkei 225 and the ASX 200.

Quiet trade (outside of euro pairs) allowed AUD/USD to drift higher despite the stronger USD. But with US CPI and FOMC looming, I doubt this is the ‘real move’ and further downside beckons.