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EUR/USD, USD/JPY implied vols rise ahead CPI and GDP data: European Open
With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.
AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open
With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.
Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report
When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.
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Nasdaq 100 overcooked, USD/JPY underdone given the shift in US yields
After a near 15% rally in under a month, the high-flying Nasdaq 100 looks tired on the charts, struggling to add to gains despite a continued pullback in US bond yields. In contrast, USD/JPY gives the impression it’s only starting the process of adjusting to the more placid US yield environment.
USD/JPY bulls eye break of 150, Crude oil is flat for the year: Asian Open
A sharp reversal on USD/JPY last week brings a potential break above 150 in to focus, assuming the US dollar can find a bid and USD/CNH continues to hold above its 200-day MA. Meanwhile, crude oil has handed back all of its 2023 gains and it is a very fine line before the bias for a move to $80 becomes invalidated.
DAX, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX slips as German recession worries rise. USD/JPY falls as Japanese CPI rises and ahead of US PMIs.
US dollar bears running out of steam? AUD/USD, USD/JPY: Asian Open
We watched with bated breath to see if USD/CNH would break its 200-day average on Tuesday and pave the way for the next bout of US dollar weakness. Yet with that key level holding as support, it leaves room for some US dollar strength, a higher USD/JPY and weaker AUD/USD.
GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
GBP/USD rises ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn budget. USD/JPY falls ahead of FOMC minutes.
AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues
There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023
EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.
USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Chinese yuan strength a bullish signal for Asian FX names
The latest episode of US economic exceptionalism may be coming to an end, resulting in US bond yields and US dollar coming off their highs. Major Asian FX names like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan have been taking note, strengthening further against the buck on Friday.
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY provide reversal hints
The Japanese yen has finally found some much needed support this week. It is all to do with the falls in global bond yields, and the unwinding of carry trades. US yields slumped earlier this week after US CPI fell more than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed (and other central banks) will no longer raise rates further
Gold, USD/JPY: Batter up, bond auctions. It’s your turn to steal the spotlight
In a week when there’s little market moving macroeconomic events scheduled, fresh US Treasury auctions are likely to steal the spotlight. Yield sensitive assets such as gold and USD/JPY will be paying particularly close attention.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: It’s no longer about inflation but the global economic outlook
The US consumer price inflation (CPI) report for October had an immediate and significant impact for markets, including USD/JPY and Nikkei 225. Attention is now likely to shift to whether we see a hard economic landing.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY key levels ahead of US inflation: European open
Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.
US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Tests 30+ Year Highs Ahead of US CPI
With the decline in the inflation rate seemingly stalling, a higher-than-expected inflation reading is likely to be more impactful to markets.
Oil, USD/JPY forecast: Two trades to watch
Crude oil falls as demand concerns weigh. USD/JPY rises to a yearly high.
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USD/JPY: Weakening upstream inflation bodes ill for BOJ wage acceleration
USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?
GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecast :Two trades to watch
GBP/USD struggles as UK GDP stalls. USD/JPY grinds higher after a hawkish Fed Chair Powell.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD holds above 1.07 ahead of ECB Lagarde & Powell’s speech. USD/JPY is on intervention watch ahead of Fed Chair Powell & jobless claims.
USD/JPY rises to resistance, USD ready to retrace? Asian Open
If the BOJ were going to intervene, it could be argued they'd have done it already. But that doesn't mean the market can't do some of the work for them by sending USD/JPY lower from key resistance levels. And if the US dollar pulls back as I suspect, it places USD/JPY short onto the watchlist.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Narrowing yield differentials with the US amplify downside risks
If you believe the Fed is done hiking rates and will be forced to ease policy aggressively next year, it’s hard to be bullish USD/JPY or the Nikkei 225 given the role yield differentials and FX fluctuations have played in underpinning both this year.
USD/JPY holds support, DAX breaks 15k: European Open – Nov 2, 2023
The DAX may have broken the 15k level, but it remains within a bearish channel and resistance zone on the daily timeframe – so I’m looking out for a potential swing high once its current rally has petered out. USD/JPY has found intraday support around a cluster of technical levels, which paints a near-term bullish bias.