Fawad Razaqzada

Investors are still cautious despite reports that Trump will be considering a more gradual ramp-up in trade tariffs in order to avert inflation spikes. So, more price action is needed to confirm a low has been hit, as this could just turn out to be an oversold recovery – especially given the recent bearish price action across several US indices. Thus, it is too early to turn positive again on the Nasdaq 100 outlook.

The bearish momentum has been fuelled by a surging US dollar, which has been supported on the back of stronger labour market data and expectations inflationary pressures will return under Trump. Combined with weak economic data from the Eurozone and China, this is all helping to keep the EUR/USD forecast and trend bearish.

While I am bullish on gold in the long-term, I think it is due for a potential correction in the near-term outlook, as rising yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal over the “risk free” government debt. So, my near-term gold forecast is leaning more bearish.

Due to the hawkish repricing of US interest rates, the EUR/USD forecast remains bearish as we look forward to another week of volatility. US CPI and Chinese GDP are among the data highlight to watch.

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

With not much in the way of macro factors to watch until the nonfarm payrolls report is released, I will provide some in-depth technical Nasdaq 100 analysis first before looking at some macro influences that could shape the markets in the weeks and months ahead.