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Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.

Jobs

Non-Farm Payrolls more than double estimates! What recession?

The US Non-Farm Payroll data released this morning showed that 528,000 jobs were added to the economy during July. This is more then twice the estimate of 250,000.

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August 5, 2022 03:29 PM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

Philly Fed shows risk of slowdown; DXY

The Employment component and the Prices Paid component were big contributors to the weaker print. Could we be seeing the first signs of a slowing jobs market and lower inflation?

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July 21, 2022 05:08 PM

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Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

PPI follows CPI with stronger than expected 11.3% headline print

As the DXY continues to make new daily highs, it appears that inflation is still at the forefront of traders’ minds, with worries of a global slowdown right behind it!

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July 14, 2022 05:13 PM
Gold nuggets

Multi-decade highs in DXY continues to push Gold lower

The two assets currently share a correlation coefficient of -0.96, a very strong negative correlation. Therefore, if the DXY continues to move higher, one could suspect that XAU/USD will be moving lower!

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July 11, 2022 08:31 PM
Federal reserve building

FOMC Minutes: “More restrictive stance” to come?

The FOMC Minutes from the June 14-15,2022 meeting told a story of a scared Fed that will do anything to stop inflation from increasing, even if it means slowing growth.

Market chart

Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?

It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.

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June 30, 2022 04:33 PM
Federal reserve Eagle

Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?

US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.

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June 28, 2022 04:09 PM
Close-up of bank notes in different currencies

Worse than expected US Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production top off a rough data week

Fed Chairman Powell said he does not see a spillover from the high inflation into the broader economy. Therefore, the Fed excepts to continue hiking rates.

Downward trend

Housing data and Philly Fed results don't inspire much hope for US economy

Jerome Powell said at yesterday’s FOMC press conference that he doesn’t see signs of a broader slowdown in the economy. Will his view change?

Federal reserve building close-up

FOMC recap: Fed hikes rates 75 bps, dot plots show much more to come!

The Fed statement said that it is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective” and that it ”expects the labor market to remain strong”.

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June 15, 2022 09:05 PM
Federal Reserve eagle

FOMC Preview: Could the Committee hike 75bps?

With inflation continuing to increase and the Unemployment Rate at its lowest since February 2020, is it time for the Fed to surprise the markets and hike rates by 75bps?

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June 13, 2022 08:33 PM
Rocket taking off on a bright day

CPI is highest since 1981; DXY, EUR/USD

The reaction in the markets is a stronger US Dollar and a lower EUR/USD, which insinuates a call for more aggressive tightening from the Fed.

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June 10, 2022 03:40 PM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

Non-Farm Payrolls beat; What will the Fed think?

Today’s headline NFP print and average hourly earnings data should make the Fed happy.

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June 3, 2022 03:18 PM

US Dollar rips higher on economic data, Fed speakers

Today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and hawkish Fed speakers were bullish for the US Dollar. Will the DXY continue to move higher?

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June 1, 2022 08:04 PM
Market chart

Core PCE still strong, but weaker than March

Although one reading isn’t considered a trend,it may be suggesting that inflation has plateaued.

Is the manufacturing sector telling us something?

Are these large drops in the manufacturing data indicative of a slowdown ahead in the rest of the economy?

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US Consumer still spending despite high inflation; EUR/USD

Anyone who is worried about the effects that inflation will have on household spending can take a deep breath for another month as April’s Retail Sales data continued to be strong.

US PPI follows suit after CPI print

Although PPI was lower than March's reading, it did little to soothe investor fears of rising interest rates.

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May 12, 2022 04:45 PM
Close-up of bank notes in different currencies

Is it time for USD/CHF to pullback ahead of parity as DXY consolidates?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/CHF have a very strong positive correlation.

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May 10, 2022 04:14 PM
Apply now highlighted in newspaper

NFP headline beats expectations; confirms Fed’s view that labor markets are tight

If the Fed continues to raise rates, will the jobs numbers begin to move lower?

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May 6, 2022 03:57 PM
USA flag

Big miss as US Q1 GDP turns negative; EUR/USD

The headline print was -1.4% QoQ vs an expectation of +1.1% QoQ and a Q4 2021 reading of +6.9% QoQ!

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April 28, 2022 04:13 PM
Bank notes of different currencies

Eastern European EM pairs moving back towards all-time highs

Given the strong correlations, if the DXY pulls back, watch for USD/PLN and USD/HUF to pull back with it!

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April 27, 2022 03:44 PM