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AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD

The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.

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It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook

With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.

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May 15, 2024 11:52 PM
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USD falters ahead of US CPI, ASX set to track Wall Street higher? Asian Open

The USD was weaker despite higher producer prices, as traders placed greater emphasis on last month's figures being revised lower. And that now sees a 51% chance of a September Fed cut, according to Fed Fund futures.

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May 15, 2024 12:11 AM

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US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open

The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.

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May 13, 2024 11:40 PM
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Futures traders reduce yen speculation after BOJ intervention: COT report

With asset managers and large speculators trimming long and short exposure to yen futures, their appetite to speculate on the currency appears to be waning after BOJ interventions.

Research

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness

The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.

Research

US dollar outlook Eliminate market noise using this indicator on DXY directional risks

As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.

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May 8, 2024 04:04 AM
Forex trading

Another BOJ intervention may have just stole the show from the Fed

It was the Japanese yen which stole the show after Jerome Powell’s press conference, with USD/JPY falling over 450 pips on another suspected BOJ intervention.

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US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities

Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.

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US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits

If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.

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April 24, 2024 12:01 AM
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GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled

The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.

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US dollar, yields surge on hot US CPI, ASX set to gap lower: Asian Open

Bond yields and the US dollar surged after the latest US inflation report bought serious doubt over a June Fed cut, dragging global indices lower which sets the stage for the ASX 200 cash market to suffer today.

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April 11, 2024 12:24 AM
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US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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April 8, 2024 04:35 AM
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US dollar hints at NFP rebound, ASX 200 to track Wall Street lower?

The US dollar retraced for a third day, but with NFP stats favouring a 'beat' then we're on guard for a dollar bounce.

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April 4, 2024 11:28 PM
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US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break

After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.

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April 3, 2024 03:35 AM
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US dollar forecast: April tends to weigh on USD, GBP/USD outperforms

Looking at seasonality patterns shows that the US dollar tends to fall against most FX majors in April, and GBP/USD has been the outperformer.

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March 26, 2024 03:03 AM
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USD rallies on hawkish Fed, although USD/JPY falters below 152: Asian Open

The market appears to be doing the BOJ's work by refusing to test 152, which paints a bearish bias over the near term for USD/JPY.

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March 24, 2024 09:12 PM

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US dollar analysis: DXY extends recovery - Forex Friday

Dollar is supported by better-than-expected US data and unexpected dovish moves from certain central banks outside of the US. The Fed was also dovish, but it is all about inflation data moving forward. Next week’s macro highlights include CPI data from Australia and Japan and core PCE from the US. Dollar Index technical analysis points higher – for now.

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US dollar, Nasdaq 100, Gold forward returns over Easter: The Week Ahead

We have a shorter trading week due to the long Easter weekend. As there is a lack of top-tier data, we take at how the US dollar index, Nasdaq 100 and gold have performed around this time of year.

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March 22, 2024 02:13 AM
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The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

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March 19, 2024 02:03 AM
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GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report

With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.

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USD bears scramble, USD/JPY eyes breakout after US data: Asian Open

US dollar bears scrambled for cover following hot US economic data ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, helping USD/JPY rise to a 5-day high and eye a potential breakout today.

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March 14, 2024 10:23 PM
Forex trading

USD/JPY seems best bet for bulls amid a mixed US dollar environment

The US dollar rose for a second day, but its bearish reversal candle makes it less appealing to bulls. Yet USD/JPY shows promising signs of bullish mean reversion ahead of next week's BOJ and FOMC meetings.

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March 13, 2024 03:05 AM