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Energy

WTI crude oil, ASX 200 analysis: Asian Open – 26/09/2023

Price action remains choppy on WTI crude oil's daily timeframe, which further backs up the case that last week's bearish reversal candle marked the beginning of a correction. The question now is how deep can it retrace before dip buyers seek to return in force? The ASX 200 has shown tentative signs of stability above 7,000, but given the bearish breakdown seen last week we prefer to seek bearish setups around resistance levels.

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Yesterday 11:14 PM
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Nasdaq, Nikkei, ASX: Breaking down as the ‘bondcano’ erupts

After threatening for weeks to generate a sizeable volatility event, the combination of higher bond yields and US dollar looks to have delivered.

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September 22, 2023 03:10 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 headwinds to persist with ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates: Asian Open

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

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September 20, 2023 10:42 PM

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ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index

An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

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September 20, 2023 03:39 AM

Gold bulls reclaim key levels, ASX 200 pulls back to support: Asian Open

Gold provided a false break and recovery bac above its 200-day EMA last week, and Monday's trade saw gold find support back above its 200-day MA. The ASX 200 handed back around half of Friday's gains, although there's a reasonable chance it might be able to find support around 7200 given the 200-day EMA resides in the area.

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September 18, 2023 11:36 PM
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AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge

Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.

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September 14, 2023 03:26 AM
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ASX 200: Bearish technical signals point to growing downside risks

Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.

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September 8, 2023 03:21 AM
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AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause

With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.

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September 5, 2023 06:43 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates

A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.

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September 4, 2023 02:37 AM
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USD/JPY perks up, ASX 200 slides ahead of Jackson Hole: Asian Open – 25/08/2023

The US dollar was broadly higher alongside US yields ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. ASX 200 futures tracked Wall Street lower and USD/JPY regained its footing.

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August 24, 2023 11:42 PM
Research

AUD/USD and gold bears get squeezed on weak US PMIs: Asian Open 24/08/2023

Flash PMIs dominated sentiment across the European and US sessions with downside disappointments. The US dollar index (DXY) topped just below 104 and closed back beneath the July high, hinting at a false break ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. And this saw EUR/USD rebound from 1.08 and AUD/USD and gold bears continue to cover shorts.

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August 23, 2023 11:25 PM
Research

Iron ore rally faces its next big test

Iron ore has been rallying hard but will stimulus speculation end in sorrow?

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August 23, 2023 07:01 AM
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Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.

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August 22, 2023 04:50 AM
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ASX 200: higher bond yields generating valuation headwinds

Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.

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August 22, 2023 01:54 AM
Research

USD/JPY bulls eye fresh highs: Asian Open – 22nd August 2023

USD/JPY bulls seem intent on goading the MOF and BOJ into verbal or actual intervention, as the market rises back to last week's multi-month high with rising yields supporting the move. The question now is whether we'll hear an increase of comments from officials if or when we break above last week's high. For now, USD/JPY looks as though it at least wants to retest it.

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August 21, 2023 11:50 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 battered and bruised: Asian Open – 21st August 2023

It was not the best week for Australian markets, with the ASX 200 suffering its worst week in nearly a year and AUD/USD trading lower for a fifth consecutive week (its first such bearish sequence since October). Today’s question is whether we’ll see a reprieve and if Beijing will unleash the vast amounts of stimulus investors are clearly craving.

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August 20, 2023 11:27 PM
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AUD/USD tumbles again as jobs market softens

Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.

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August 17, 2023 03:40 AM

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USD/JPY, Gold, ASX 200 analysis: Asian Open – 17th August 2023

Hawkish FOMC minutes caught markets by surprise which saw US bond yields and the USD continue to rise and sending Wall Street lower for a second day. Whilst spot gold closed beneath 1900, futures have not - so perhaps support awaits). USD/JPY is soaring higher despite a warning from the MOF. And now the ASX reached my first bearish target, I’m now wondering if it can it reach for the second.

Research

AUD/USD, ASX 200 falter on weak China data: Asian Open – 15th August 2023

It was a risk off tone to the start of the week following dire loan data from China over the weekend. AUD/USD briefly traded to a fresh YTD low and the ASX fell out of its bearish bed ad closed below 7300 for the first time in a month. The question now is whether key support levels will hold and appetite for risk will be restored, or something bigger is cooking?

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August 14, 2023 11:34 PM
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AUD/USD bears seek a fresh YTD low: Asian Open – 14th August 2023

AUD/USD may only be a day or two's trade away from testing (or even breaking) its YTD low set in May. And if price action on NZD/USD is anything to go by (which saw the Kiwi dollar break its own YTD low on Friday), we could be looking for AUD/USD to move towards 64c.

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August 14, 2023 12:08 AM
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AUD/USD, USD/JPY ASX 200 Analysis: Asian Open – 11th August 2023

The annual rate of US inflation rose expanded at a faster rate for the first month in 13 at 3.2% y/y, although it was beneath the 3.3% forecast. Prices also rose 0.2% as expected. The initial reaction was one of relief that inflation was not rising above expectations, with Wall Street rallying and the US dollar falling to help the likes of AUD/USD and EUR/USD rise momentarily after the release. But once the dust had settled and investors remembered that inflation still remains well above target, the US dollar regained its strength and Wall Street traded lower.

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August 11, 2023 12:28 AM
Research

USD/JPY: 145 breached yet BOJ intervention seems unlikely

USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.

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August 8, 2023 01:08 AM
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August 8, 2023 01:08 AM