David Scutt
David Scutt
Market Analyst
Expertise: Macroeconomics/fundamentals, strategy, market education
Trading Style: Swing
Experience:
• Former FX spot, forwards and money markets securities dealer/trader with more than 10 years’ experience working in bank treasury
• Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
• Regularly featured in publications such as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Australian Financial Review
• Ex markets and economics editor for Business Insider, covering macroeconomic and major market events in Asia
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China A50: Retest of range lows looms, testing buyer demand
Chinese equities have had plenty thrown at them in 2023. Yet, despite the challenges, some mainland indices such as the FTSE A50 are holding up alright.
Lithium sector breaking down as bond yields burst higher
Global X’s Lithium & Battery ETF, under the ticker code ‘LIT’, is one of the many victims from the recent surge in risk-free rates.
USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CNH: Fading intervention that fails fundamentals
Any attempt to support JPY through direct market intervention is unlikely to have success beyond the short-term when the fundamentals are so strongly working against it.
AUD/JPY: A proxy trade on China’s outlook that does not involve USD
Having been driven by rate differentials for much of the past three years, AUD/JPY is evolving into an effective way to express a view towards China’s outlook that does not involve the US dollar.
USD/JPY: playing the range as BOJ invention threat counteracts fundamentals
Should the Japanese government order the Bank of Japan to intervene in FX markets, it deserves the savage USD/JPY bounce that will almost inevitably be coming its way.
Nasdaq, Nikkei, ASX: Breaking down as the ‘bondcano’ erupts
After threatening for weeks to generate a sizeable volatility event, the combination of higher bond yields and US dollar looks to have delivered.
Gold should be getting hammered but isn’t - that’s interesting
If gold can’t weaken substantially in these conditions, when will it? And what happens when the tide eventually turns, with the US dollar and bond yields turning lower?
GBP/USD: BoE ‘hawkish hike’ likely required to prevent further downside
Only a ‘hawkish hike’ from the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to be enough to turn around the fortunes of GBP/USD given rapidly weakening fundamentals.
ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index
An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
USD/JPY: divergent central bank messaging generates renewed upside risk
The next few days will be pivotal for USD/JPY as rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ collide, providing an environment where we could get an explosive move in either direction.
Nasdaq 100: higher, flatter Fed funds profile a headwind for tech stocks
With a significant amount of earnings generated overseas, and whose valuations are susceptible to rising risk-free rates, the Nasdaq 100 stands out as one market that looks particularly vulnerable.