David Scutt
David Scutt
Market Analyst
Expertise: Macroeconomics/fundamentals, strategy, market education
Trading Style: Swing
Experience:
• Former FX spot, forwards and money markets securities dealer/trader with more than 10 years’ experience working in bank treasury
• Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
• Regularly featured in publications such as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Australian Financial Review
• Ex markets and economics editor for Business Insider, covering macroeconomic and major market events in Asia
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Australian dollar setups following hot inflation print: AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD
It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.
AUD/USD surges on uncomfortably high inflation update as RBA rate cut bets evaporate
AUD/USD is charging higher, powered by a hotter-than-expected Australian March quarter consumer price inflation report that has seriously dented the case for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year.
US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits
If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.
Gold, silver: Buying the dip needs a health warning given heavy price action
The bigger the rally the harder the fall? Traders dabbling in the precious metals space may be asking that exact question with gold and silver extending their losses on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week.
AUD/USD forecast: Bullish reversal may have legs before key inflation update
Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.
GBP/USD: Selling squeezes as bearish fundamentals and technicals combine
Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks for the US and UK continue to weigh on GBP/USD, making the case for downside a far easier sell than for upside right now.
Gold price forecast: Sustainable bull markets need to breathe occasionally
The inverse relationship between bond yields and US dollar with the gold price has broken down in 2024, meaning technicals and inflation expectations are arguably a more important driver right now.
China A50, Hang Seng, USD/CNH: Economic revival, state intervention creates ample trade opportunities
Chinese economic data is beating expectations at rates not seen since reopening to the world in 2023. And with the government and People’s Bank of China playing an active role in supporting mainland markets, it’s not surprising to see Chinese assets performing comparatively better than others across Asia right now.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Jobs report has little RBA implications, back to watching China
Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Even the strongest market trends are under threat
USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.
WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks
Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.