David Scutt
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Stabilisation in commodity, US stock futures bode well for AUD/USD longs
AUD/USD has equaled its longest losing streak since August 2019, hammered by deteriorating sentiment towards the outlook for the Chinese economy and investor risk appetite, especially towards big tech. But with signs of stablisation in commodity and US stock futures, the grounds for a squeeze higher are growing.
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Japanese yen reverts to safe haven asset, USD/JPY nears key support zone
USD/JPY is on a collision course with key support, plunging for a fourth consecutive day as carry trades involving the Japanese yen are unwound. It’s the kind of move you’d normally expect to see in a crisis, although we’re not in a crisis. Yet.
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AUD/JPY tumbles like we’re in a crisis, Nikkei hammered by stronger yen
You don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?
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AUD/USD resumes its role as China proxy, selling rallies preferred
AUD/USD has reverted to being a G10 FX China proxy, mirroring movements in the Chinese yuan and commodities heavily influenced by perceptions on how the world’s second-largest economy is faring, such as copper, iron ore and crude oil. Sitting on a key support zone, what happens next may determine how it fares in the latter part of the year.
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GBP/AUD stretched and nearing known reversal area
GBP/AUD is rarely as overbought as it is right now. And when it has been this overbought in the recent past, it’s usually coincided with a near-term top.
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NZD/USD skids on China concerns, Nikkei bounces into US tech earnings
NZD/USD looks terrible on the charts, weighed down by the RBNZ’s dovish pivot and renewed concerns towards the outlook for the Chinese economy. While that cyclical play looks ill, a bounce in Nikkei 225 futures has provide a decent long setup into US tech earnings.
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USD/CNH eyes fresh highs as PBOC cuts rates, USD/JPY bullish reversal incoming?
USD/CNH is threatening to break higher after the PBOC cut key policy rates, putting a potential retest of the 2024 highs on the cards. Given its historical close correlation with USD/JPY, renewed yuan weakness could drag other Asian currencies lower against the dollar.
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Gold weekly forecast: Powell pivot to power fresh record highs?
Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.
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Australian dollar has nothing to do with tech stocks, so why should it track them?
Considering the rally in cyclical assets following the soft US inflation report, the steep reversal in AUD/USD comes across as a little strange. As long as economic growth holds up, the prospect of Fed rate cuts should provide tailwinds for cyclicals. Therefore, the reversal has created a short setup. But not against the US dollar.
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GBP/USD eyes 2024 highs ahead of US inflation, UK GDP
GBP/USD has taken out the highs struck in June, pushing further above 1.2800 on Thursday. A test of the 2024 highs now looks to be on the cards. While there is UK data on the calendar, you get the sense it will be the US inflation report later in the session that will determine what happens next for Cable.
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Dow, UK FTSE set to join Australia’s ASX in the bullish breakout club?
Interest rates are starting to be cut across the developed world. The combination of lower borrowing costs and positive economic growth should benefit cyclical assets, including stock indices which have lagged during the aggressive rate tightening cycle of recent years. That presents an opportunity for traders.