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Gold forecast: Metals drops but bullish trend intact

Gold's failure to hold above the previous record highs has raised some concern that the metal may have hit a peak. However, I am doubtful that is the case and expect the precious metal to bounce back, potentially reaching a new record soon. So, my gold forecast remains bullish as before despite the metal extending lower at the start of this week.


GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX, gold analysis from the weekly COT report

Large speculators surged into GBP/USD long bets last week, pushing net-long exposure to a record high and at the fastest weekly pace since records began. They also continued to trim net-short exposure to yen futures for a second week, after it nearly reached a record high of its own.


WTI crude bulls regain their footing, gold trips over its ATH

A combination of factors drew WTI crude oil bulls from the side line on Wednesday, which brings $85 back into focus. Gold didn’t have such luck despite hitting a record high the day prior.

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July 18, 2024 01:48 AM

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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.


AUD/USD probes support, Gold, Dow Jones burst to record highs in style

AUD/USD probed a key support level after erasing most of the past six days of gains in just two. And that suggests there could be further downside before bulls step back in. The combination of strong earnings, dovish Fed comments and softer Canadian CPI was enough to push gold and the Dow Jones to record highs, which enjoyed their strongest day's performance in 4 months and 13 months respectively.


Gold outlook: Precious metal edges closer to May ATH

Our gold outlook remains positive. The metal’s performance has been bolstered by a weaker dollar and reduced bond yields. Its strong gains in 2024 have reinforced its status as a reliable asset for wealth preservation amidst rising prices.

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July 16, 2024 12:52 PM

Gold outlook: Metal could hit a new record high

Gold turned positive on the session after a quiet start, testing short-term resistance around $2420 at the time of writing.

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July 15, 2024 02:30 PM
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).

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Gold weekly forecast: Powell pivot to power fresh record highs?

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.


EUR/USD firms up ahead of US CPI, gold appears hesitant to reclaim 2400

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

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July 11, 2024 04:24 AM
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Gold, Silver Analysis: Precious Metals Poised to Break Out?

This week’s marquee economic release, the US CPI report, looms large as a potential breakout catalyst for Silver and Gold tomorrow.


Gold and silver primed for upside when the dovish Fed pivot arrives

Gold and silver have been strongly correlated with copper futures over the past fortnight. The negative correlation with the US dollar index, US two-year Treasury yields and Fed funds futures curve has also strengthened. Combined, it suggests base and precious metals are once again being driven by the US interest rate outlook.

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July 10, 2024 07:19 AM

Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

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Silver forecast: gold and silver set stage to extend 2024 gains

This week, it is all about US inflation, which puts the dollar and dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver in sharp focus. Despite their weaker start to the week, gold and silver may have long ways to go on the upside, I reckon. Our gold and silver forecast both remain positive.


Gold, silver, copper could break to new highs if Powell, CPI allow

Key risk events this week include Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and a CPI report. Should Powell strike a dovish tone and CPI data come in soft, gold, silver and copper could be poised to rally.

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July 8, 2024 04:13 AM
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Gold coils ahead of NFP, ASX looks set to retrace

Gold's rally paused for breath below resistance ahead of NFP, where volatility is expected. The ASX bumped its head at resistance and looks primed for a retracement lower during what could be a quiet session ahead of NFP.

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July 5, 2024 12:20 AM

Gold hovers around a monthly high ahead of tomorrow's NFP

Gold is trading modestly higher in light electronic trade owing to the US Independence Day holiday, US stock markets and treasury markets are closed. Revived hopes of a Fed rate cut and ongoing central bank buying support the precious meta.

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July 4, 2024 03:30 PM

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Gold and Silver forecast: Metals extend gains ahead of key US data

Today’s data dump includes the ADP private payrolls, unemployment claims, factory orders and ISM services PMI. Friday will see the release of the June payrolls data. Judging by a weaker US dollar (outside of the USD/JPY pair), it looks like investors are expecting this week’s data to be overall on the weaker side. In any case, our bullish gold and silver forecast remain unchanged.

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July 3, 2024 01:00 PM

Gold forecast: Could the metal shine more brightly in July?

Today’s flattish performance of gold mirrors that of last month when gold traded mixed but managed to end as flat as a pancake by the close of play on Friday. The Dollar Index posted a slight monthly gain, indicating that gold investors largely ignored the dollar's strength. Throughout June, gold traded within a narrow range, peaking just above $2387 and bottoming just below $2287.

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July 1, 2024 05:30 PM

Gold forecast: XAUUSD defends support ahead of key data and elections

Gold and silver have been on the rise in the last couple of days, recovering from weakness earlier in the week. Once again, gold has risen alongside equity markets, suggesting the recovery is not entirely driven by haven flows amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming French snap elections, which appears to have only impacted the local stock and bond, as well as regional, markets.


Gold and silver forecast: XAGUSD tests key support as bulls eye recovery

For silver, a significant breakout earlier this year could lead to a surge to $35. However, in the short term, we need to see a bullish reversal before aiming for these longer-term targets. Thus, my gold and silver forecast remains bullish despite recent challenges.

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June 27, 2024 01:30 PM
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Gold Forecast: Why XAU/USD Selling Could Accelerate if $2275 Gives Way

A confirmed break below $2275 support in gold would project a “measured move” objective for the pattern down around $2100.


Gold and silver forecast: Metals continue bullish consolidation – Technical Tuesday

Election uncertainty in France and upcoming key US data are some of the risk factors keeping a lid on gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) prices. Still, both of our gold and silver forecast remains bullish. Their ongoing consolidation phase should not be mistaken for a sign of weakness.

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June 25, 2024 01:30 PM