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Week Ahead: Fallout from BOE and NFP; Focus on CPI

This week expect to see more follow through price action from Non-Farm Payrolls and the BOE. In addition, watch the data to see if inflation has peaked or continued higher.

Research

GBP/USD: What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger

GBP/USD is down only modestly despite so much negative news...

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August 5, 2022 05:41 PM
Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Forex Friday: USD/JPY, Yields and peak inflation?

In this week’s edition, we discuss the re-pricing of future rate hikes and potential for peak inflation, and how all this is helping to fuel a rally in zero- and low-yielding assets.

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Heed the SNB’s warning if inflation reading is high!

The SNB has already given warnings that it could take monetary policy action between meetings if necessary.

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August 2, 2022 08:40 PM
Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

Japan data dump won’t help the Yen; USD/JPY

If the data dump later comes out as expected, will the BOJ turn less dovish? It's unlikely.

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July 28, 2022 07:59 PM
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AU Q2 inflation surges but fears ease over supersized 75bp RBA rate hike

June quarter Australian inflation data has surged to 6.1%, but below consensus expectations easing fears of a supersized 75bp rate hike when the RBA meets next week.

Bank notes of different currencies

Mexico CPI continues to rise; rate hikes not helping yet

The headline mid-month inflation rate for July is 8.16% YoY , led primarily by rising food costs. This is the highest level of inflation in 21 years!

Canada CPI weaker than expected – Peak inflation?

Although the June CPI reading for Canada was higher than the May reading, the headline was much lower than expected.

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July 20, 2022 03:28 PM
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Traders see continued rate hikes over the next year, despite concerns of a recession

Will central banks be able to raise rates fast enough to keep higher inflation at bay, while simultaneously keeping the world out of a recession?

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July 18, 2022 08:30 PM
Gold nuggets

Gold rises, dollar slumps despite hot CPI

Hot CPI readings may hurt the economy so badly that the Fed may start cutting rates again in as early as Q1

US CPI comes in hot! US Dollar on the move

The US CPI print came out much hotter than expected 9.1% YoY. This print, combined with the strong employment data, should give the Fed confidence to hike at least 75bps

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July 13, 2022 03:05 PM
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US CPI preview: Will inflation overshoot again?

Annual CPI is expected to have accelerated to 8.8% in June from 8.6% in May.

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Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, USD/CAD

GBP/USD rises after UK GDP, US CPI next, USD/CAD awaits the BoC rate decision.

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July 13, 2022 08:17 AM
Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/USD remains undermined on mixed Eurozone CPI

Inflation hits a fresh record high in the Eurozone

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July 1, 2022 12:03 PM
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European Open: Keep an eye on Germany's Regional CPI’s

The first (of several) regional inflation reports for Germany came in soft this morning, and that could be a lead for Germany’s broad CPI released at lunch today.

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June 29, 2022 06:24 AM
Bank notes of different currencies

Bank of Mexico hikes 75bps after higher inflation reading

Will USD/MXN continue lower? It may depend on whether the central bank decides to hike another 75bps at its August meeting!

Bank notes of different currencies

Bank of Mexico hikes 75bps after higher inflation reading

Will USD/MXN continue lower? It may depend on whether the central bank decides to hike another 75bps at its August meeting!

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CPI is highest since 1981; DXY, EUR/USD

The reaction in the markets is a stronger US Dollar and a lower EUR/USD, which insinuates a call for more aggressive tightening from the Fed.

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June 10, 2022 03:40 PM
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US open: Stocks tumble as inflation unexpectedly rises

Stocks are set for a steeply lower start after the keenly awaited CPI data showed that inflation unexpectedly rose in May to 8.6% YoY a fresh 40 year high.

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European Open: There's nerves in the air ahead of US inflation

There’s clearly nervousness in the air ahead of today’s US inflation report, as index futures cling to their lows after breaking lower from a 7-day range.

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June 10, 2022 06:36 AM
Research

A peek at (peak?) inflation

US Inflation may have softened to a degree in April, but traders really want to see further evidence that inflation is pointing lower to call ‘peak inflation’ with more confidence.

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June 9, 2022 08:01 AM
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EU stocks wobble as inflation jumps to new high

European stocks may struggle to sustain a positive trend amid surging price pressures

Currency exchange rate board of multiple currencies

After most of the data for the week, GBP/USD advancing

GBP/USD has been moving higher this week as a result of the strong labor market in the UK and the high inflation readings.