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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY: UK CPI in focus after soft prints from NZ, CA

The UK's 1-month OIS suggests ~48% chance of a 25bp cut from the BOE next month, which means today's inflation report is likely a key driver for GBP/USD on monetary policy expectations.

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July 17, 2024 04:34 AM
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EURUSD, DXY Analysis: Rate Cut Bets vs Stretched Momentum Indicators

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: latest CPI figures boosted the sustainability rate of the dis-inflationary track, leading to a drop in US bond yields and boosting the likelihood of a September rate cut

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July 12, 2024 11:38 AM
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Dow Forecast: Weaker US CPI Keeps Stock Bulls Happy

The Dow has risen along with the Russell 200 index after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.0% instead of the expected 3.1%. Small caps are set for a big rally, with Russell 2000 index breaking out a good 3% at the time of writing.

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July 11, 2024 05:30 PM

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GBP/USD outlook: Attention turns to US CPI after stronger UK GDP

Unless US CPI now comes in hotter, the GBP/USD outlook should remain positive heading deeper into the summer months. This is especially the case after the cable broke a long-term resistance trend around the 1.28 handle as investors gave Keir Starmer’s progress in his first week as UK Prime Minister the green light and US data weakened last week.

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July 11, 2024 12:00 PM
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EURUSD, USDMXN Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

The sustainability of the US disinflationary trajectory towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be tested today with the release of the June CPI indicator

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July 11, 2024 11:13 AM
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US CPI Preview: Another Low-3% Reading Likely, Traders Looking to Buy S&P 500 Dips?

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

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July 9, 2024 05:52 PM
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Crude Oil Forecast: Clean Energy Spending Hits All Time Highs

Crude Oil Forecast: The transition towards clean energy is driving long-term bearish projections for oil, yet US economic growth and policies still dominate short-term trends

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July 9, 2024 09:34 AM
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GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – July 8, 2024

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the GBP/USD forecast into focus. Thus, a clearer trend for the US dollar could emerge this week, after the greenback fell across the board last week.

EURUSD Outlook: French Political Uncertainties vs Fed Rate Cut Bets

EURUSD Outlook: Despite the bearish impact of political and economic uncertainty in the EU, EURUSD is holding at a bullish end amid Fed rate cut bets

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Powell testimony, US CPI, RBNZ and French Election: The Week Ahead

Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.

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EUR/USD in the crossfire of election polls, US inflation: The Week Ahead

Inflation reports are the main theme for next week, with figures set to be released from the US, Canada, Australia and Japan. EUR/USD traders might want to be on guard for headline risk surrounding French elections, as it is the last full week before votes are cast and that means polls could easily sway sentient for European markets.

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June 21, 2024 06:42 AM
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FTSE 100 Forecast Boosted by CPI and Crude Rally Ahead of Elections

The FTSE moved moderately higher after the UK’s inflation rate fell to the Bank of England’s 2% target ahead of for the central bank’s rate section on Thursday.

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June 19, 2024 01:00 PM

EURUSD Forecast: Key Levels Ahead of FOMC

EURUSD Forecast: A drop in CPI results put the EURUSD back above key level 1.0820. What’s next for FOMC?

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June 12, 2024 03:03 PM
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EUR/USD, gold key levels heading into US inflation, FOMC

The incoming US inflation report and FOMC meeting are highly anticipated events, as they can shape expectations for Fed policy beyond 2026. Volatility is expected, so we look at key levels for EUR/USD and gold ahead of these events.

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US CPI Preview: Base Effect Could Boost USD/JPY, Core Reading Key Ahead of Fed

Ahead of CPI and the Fed, USD/JPY’s year-to-date uptrends remains intact after a bounce from support in the 155.00 area last week.

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June 10, 2024 08:06 PM
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GBPUSD Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

GBPUSD outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls halted 3-month highs, what’s next for CPI and FOMC?

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June 10, 2024 02:30 PM
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GBP/USD forecast: Cable stands firm despite hopes of soft UK CPI

GBP/USD has rallied 3.5% since April's low despite favourable yield differentials with the US. Yet price action on the daily and H4 charts suggests a minor pullback may be due.

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May 22, 2024 03:34 AM

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EUR/USD, DAX Forecast: Soft US Data Drives EUR/USD Higher and DAX to Record

The 1-2 combination of soft CPI and retail sales has driven EUR/USD higher and sent the DAX to fresh record highs.

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May 15, 2024 04:17 PM
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Gold forecast boosted by weaker US dollar ahead of CPI

How is the metal likely to react to today’s CPI data? Well, it may not be quite straight forward as I have explained in this article. CPI is expected to have moderated in April to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% previously.

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May 15, 2024 12:00 PM

EURUSD Forecast: Charts Gear up for U.S. CPI Volatility Week

EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD price levels brace for volatility with the upcoming speech from Fed Powell, U.S CPI metrics, and ECB Financial Review.

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May 14, 2024 05:44 PM
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US CPI Preview: USD/JPY Vulnerable as Leading Indicator Points to a Decline in Inflation

USD/JPY could be vulnerable as cooling ISM Prices Paid and disinflationary base effects point to a potential decline in CPI inflation this month

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May 14, 2024 04:21 PM
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UK, CA, NZ inflation at the helm: The Week Ahead

With traders keen to see who will be the first among the BOE, BOC or RBNZ to cut rates, their attention will be surely on next week's inflation reports for their respective regions.

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April 12, 2024 04:39 AM
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GBP/USD Analysis: Hot US CPI Drives Cable Back Below 1.2600 – Where Next?

The biggest economic data release of this week, and arguably the whole month – US CPI – didn’t disappoint in terms of its market impact.

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April 10, 2024 02:40 PM