News and analysis

If gold can’t weaken substantially in these conditions, when will it? And what happens when the tide eventually turns, with the US dollar and bond yields turning lower?

Only a ‘hawkish hike’ from the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to be enough to turn around the fortunes of GBP/USD given rapidly weakening fundamentals.

The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.

At the most basic level the Fed delivered what was expected; another policy pause with the potential for further hikes. The opening paragraph tipped noted an economy which is “expanding at a solid pace” with a slower but “strong” job growth and elevated inflation. There’s nothing remotely dovish there. And then we look at the numbers…

Nasdaq fell sharply on news that while the Fed will pause rates for now, higher rates are possible. Higher bond yields and the risk of another rate hike this year caused a sell-off in equities and bonds. Oil saw profit-taking. The dollar index rallied on hopes that US rates will rise further. Bottom-line: risk-off.

The US dollar rises as the Fed still expects another rate hike and only two rate cuts next year

The EUR/USD and other dollar pairs will be in sharp focus for FX traders as the attention turns to the upcoming Fed decision in a few hours’ time. No rate hike is expected, but the market is pricing in about even odds of another rate increase before the year is out.

US stocks are edging higher ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. However, the key focus will be on what comes next. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again in November. Yet with inflation still over 2%, resilience in the US economy and oil heading towards $100 the Fed is likely to keep the door open for further hikes if needed.

What stocks are being discussed and traded today, and which ones are experiencing the sharpest moves before the bell?