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NFP Preview: Could a Strong Jobs Report Put a December Fed Pause in Play?
The Fed is likely, but not certain, to cut interest rates by 25bps later this month, and a strong NFP report could reopen the door for close decision.
USD/JPY outlook: Attention turns to NFP ahead of CPI, Fed and BoJ meetings
There's some speculation that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates at its upcoming policy decision on December 19, while dollar traders are looking forward to the release of US non-farm payrolls report on Friday, inflation data next week and the Fed’s own interest rate decision on December 18. So, the USD/JPY outlook is subject to change significantly in the next two weeks.
AUD/JPY: Metallica, RBA rate pricing, and the battle going on below
AUD/JPY is caught in a battle as fierce as a Metallica riff, with rich RBA rate cut pricing and technical support making for ding-dong battle at 96.22.
EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Rate differentials matter, politics don’t
French political chaos grabs headlines, but EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY aren't flinching. Rate differentials are steering the ship. Are morning star patterns signalling a reversal? We break down setups cutting through the noise.
AUD/USD saved by the yuan, though April cut fully priced for RBA
Weak GDP figures saw interest rates traders fully price in three 25bp RBA cuts by Feb 2026. And AUD/USD could have traded much lower on Wednesday, were it not for a stronger yuan coming to the Aussies rescue later in the day.
US Dollar: A Contrarian Perspective on How Trump’s Second Term Could Weaken the USD
How a shift in trade policy, the extension of tax cuts, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence could pave the way for a weaker greenback under Trump.
EUR/AUD turns higher, ASX 200 falters on sluggish Australian growth
Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.
USD/JPY selloff loses steam around support, bounce incoming?
Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.
EUR/JPY forecast: Technical Tuesday – December 3, 2024
The EUR/JPY is our featured technical chart, for not only a technical breakdown is looking increasingly likely, but the macro back backdrop makes for a bearish fundamental backdrop. In short, the euro is undermined because of Europe’s persistent economic and political challenges, while a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan magnifies the yen's appeal. Against this backdrop, our short-term EUR/JPY forecast is bearish.
USD/NOK, NOK/JPY: Rate differentials and sentiment skew directional risks
Risk sentiment and rate differentials are dictating directional risks for USD/NOK and NOK/JPY. With weakening ties to US rates and oil, and carry trade flows dominating NOK/JPY, we look at setups as we head toward year-end.
The US dollar, seasonality and what that could mean for December
While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.
AUD/JPY, AUD/USD drop like a tonne of BRICS
I thought we might make it a bit closer to 2025 before the selloff an anticipated selloff on AUD/JPY unfolded. But we're reminded that Trump can make or break sentiment on a whim with his eye now on BRICS countries, which saw AUD/USD fall alongside the FX barometer of risk on Monday.
Forex Seasonality – December 2024: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Rally?
EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.
USD/JPY forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – December 2, 2024
With a jam-packed calendar this week, including, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the closely watched JOLTS Job Openings report, and the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report to come, traders are bracing for volatility. These data points are expected to influence the USD/JPY forecast, especially with both the Fed and BoJ policy decisions looming in December.
Bullish bets on the yen continue to gain traction: COT report
We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?
AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.
USD/JPY forecast: Payrolls pivotal for bullish bond breakout, yen rally longevity
A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?
EUR/USD forecast: Forex Friday – November 29, 2024
We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.
USD/JPY: Inflation surprise fuels yen surge, 200DMA break boosts downside risks
USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?
EUR/USD: Fading French political turmoil with the White Knight on standby
French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.
NZD/USD shifting from US rates play to trade war proxy?
NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?
USD/JPY crumbles as Treasury futures surge: key signals to watch
After USD/JPY’s dramatic plunge, the focus shifts to what’s next. Is this just the beginning of further downside, or could a rally toward the 200-day moving average provide fresh opportunities for shorts? Here's what signals from US Treasuries reveal on near-term directional risks.