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Gold didn’t last long below $2000 despite higher US yields and dollar

Higher bond yields, stronger US dollar, no major escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It’s the kind of backdrop you wouldn’t expect gold to thrive in. But its first probe below $2000 per ounce in 2024 didn’t last long, rebounding strongly to push back into the range it’s been operating in since mid-December.

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February 19, 2024 01:40 AM
Forex trading

JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

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Gold, crude oil looking heavy despite reversal in bond yields, US dollar

Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.

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February 15, 2024 05:46 AM

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EUR/USD, US dollar, Dow Jones, crude oil analysis: COT report

Traders increased their bearish exposure to EUR/USD futures at their fastest pace in 20 months last week, and large speculators increased their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures despite being on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure the week prior.


Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

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February 9, 2024 06:02 AM

USD/JPY, gold, crude oil forecast: COT report – Feb 5, 2024

Bears continued to initiate fresh short bets against the Japanese yen, which points to further potential strength ahead of USD/JPY. Gold bulls trimmed longs for gold futures, and shorts continued to fall for crude oil.

Crude oil bulls eyeing key support following largest three-day plunge in months

Crude oil finished last week nursing its largest three-day decline since October, sliding 7.1% despite escalating geopolitical tensions. But with US and UK forces bombing Iranian-backed militia targets in Yemen, Iraq and Syria over the weekend, grounds for a bounce may be increasing.

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February 4, 2024 10:58 PM

Gold Forecast: Bond yields and geopolitics on the radar as traders’ eye fresh highs

Gold’s outlook looks set to be dictated by geopolitical tensions along with the US rate outlook. Having broken its downtrend, the directional risks appear skewed to the upside near-term, putting a retest of the highs hit last year on the radar.

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February 3, 2024 02:00 AM
Oil refinery

Risks for crude oil and gold skewing higher as geopolitical tensions build

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US interest rate outlook will be two of the dominant market themes traders will be grappling with this week, creating the potential for renewed volatility in the likes of crude oil and gold.

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January 29, 2024 05:26 AM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Jan 29, 2024

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.

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USD/CAD, Crude Oil Forecast: USD/CAD Rally Pauses as WTI Breaks Out

WTI Crude Oil is rallying as the IEA revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast up to 1.24M bpd amidst ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

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January 18, 2024 06:53 PM

Crude oil, gold: Impact of latest geopolitical headlines didn’t last long

Traders come across as almost desensitised to geopolitical developments in the Middle East nowadays, unable to sustain market moves on increased tensions beyond anything other than the short-term. Just look at gold and crude oil last Friday for evidence.

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January 15, 2024 02:00 AM

US dollar bears remain undeterred: COT report

Traders were their most bearish on the US dollar against all currencies in four months, despite the Fed's attempt to push back on multipole rate cuts this year.

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January 15, 2024 01:45 AM

Crude oil, gold finding buyers as Middle Eastern tensions escalate

Upside risks for gold and crude oil look appear be building as the war between Israel and Hamas fighters in Gaza threatens to spillover to a far larger and more disruptive regional conflict.

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January 12, 2024 12:08 AM

Gold isn’t responding to shifts in US interest rate like it used to

Gold’s inverse relationship with US real bond yields weakened late last year as geopolitical tensions ramped up, delivering less upside than what would have typically occurred in the past, according to Morgan Stanley.

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January 10, 2024 03:57 AM

Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar Analysis: WTI’s Surge Drives USD/CAD to 4-Month Lows

While the global supply picture remains murky, the continued growth of US production remains a long-term secular trend, but the potential for disruptions in the Middle East is a short-term risk that is driving prices higher for now.

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December 20, 2023 08:23 PM

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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Dec 18, 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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Everything you need to know about market cycles

This trading guide to market cycles covers the definition, how they work and various examples of market cycles.

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December 14, 2023 04:51 PM
Oil extraction

ASX 200, Crude Oil: Cyclicals perking up after the Fed’s early dovish pivot

This preemptive dovish signal arrived far sooner than many market participants expected, reducing the risk the global economy may experience a hard economic landing next year. For cyclicals such as the ASX 200 and crude oil, this is good news.

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December 14, 2023 02:31 AM
Federal reserve building close-up

Fed Meeting Recap: FOMC Sends Doves (And Gold) Flying

It appears clear that the next change to interest rates will be a rate cut, and the question now is when exactly the Fed’s easing cycle will begin.

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December 13, 2023 08:10 PM
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Soft landing narrative may see risk run riot unless inflation heats up

You’d think if there was any real caution heading into US CPI, long bond auctions and rate decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoE, it would have surfaced by now. But it hasn’t.

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December 12, 2023 02:53 AM

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.