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The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

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Crude oil consolidates bullish break, gold heavy after record run

How many rate cuts the Federal Reserve signals for 2024 could have an outsized impact on how commodities such as crude oil and gold perform longer-term.

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GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report

With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.

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Energy

Crude oil analysis: WTI breaks $80 barrier

Factors supporting oil price include optimism over China, bullish forecast from IEA and general strength in commodities.

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Commodities warning of shifting directional price risks

Gold, copper, silver, crude, cocoa – it’s a rarity to not come across a particular commodity that’s suddenly running hard. Every day there seems to be another one joining the increasingly lengthy list, providing a sense we may be at a turning point for the broader commodity complex.

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March 14, 2024 02:26 AM
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Hold your horses before buying copper’s bullish break

Those considering buying the break may want to look at copper’s lousy track record when it’s been this overbought on the four hourly chart in the past.

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The seeds for iron ore’s latest lurch lower were sown last week

Iron ore futures are in an increasingly ugly bear market, spiraling lower since the beginning of the year after defying bears for what seemed to be an eternity in 2023. With the price catching up to what fundamentals had been warning for months, traders are wondering how far the move can extend?

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March 13, 2024 04:47 AM
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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, gold analysis: COT report – March 11, 2024

The reversal on USD/JPY did not come without warning, as traders had reached a record level of net-short exposure. And whilst USD/JPY may be due for a bounce, further downside potential remains.

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This might be the most important chart in the financial world right now

Especially for those traders who like to dabble in markets exposed to currency or interest rate risk.

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March 7, 2024 05:03 AM
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Gold, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs: Are Traders Afraid of Sovereign Debt Loads?

Some analysts are speculating that the market is “sniffing out” the fact that the US and other developed countries will be unable to maintain high interest rates for long given their record debt loads. See what it might mean for Gold and Bitcoin!

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Silver surge sparks speculation over potential super squeeze

Silver has recorded its largest gain in months, sparking plenty of excitement on social media and other investment platforms that the move may be the start of a prolonged price rally.

USD/JPY, WTI crude oil, gold analysis: COT report

Short exposure to the Japanese yen continues to venture towards the extreme, which suggests USD/JPY could fast be approaching a reversal.

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Gold eyeing record highs as inflation expectations heat up

Gold is contemplating a thrust towards record highs after logging the highest close on record last Friday. With little visible technical resistance evident on the charts, whether it gets there will likely come down to what happens with the US dollar and bond yields over the coming days.

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March 4, 2024 01:38 AM
Energy

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI tests 3-Month Highs Near 80.00 – Will We Break Out?

This week will be a key one for WTI, with a bullish break above 80.00 potentially setting the stage for a quick continuation toward the mid-80.00s.

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March 3, 2024 07:55 PM
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AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024

Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.

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Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Nears February Highs, Inflation in Focus

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

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Gold didn’t last long below $2000 despite higher US yields and dollar

Higher bond yields, stronger US dollar, no major escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It’s the kind of backdrop you wouldn’t expect gold to thrive in. But its first probe below $2000 per ounce in 2024 didn’t last long, rebounding strongly to push back into the range it’s been operating in since mid-December.

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February 19, 2024 01:40 AM

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JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

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Gold, crude oil looking heavy despite reversal in bond yields, US dollar

Gold and crude oil are looking heavy despite a large reversal in US bond yields from the highs struck on Tuesday, unable to find any meaningful traction despite the improvement in risk appetite and softer US dollar.

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February 15, 2024 05:46 AM

EUR/USD, US dollar, Dow Jones, crude oil analysis: COT report

Traders increased their bearish exposure to EUR/USD futures at their fastest pace in 20 months last week, and large speculators increased their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures despite being on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure the week prior.

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Gold outlook: Home on the range with significant risk events ahead

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

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February 9, 2024 06:02 AM
Research

USD/JPY, gold, crude oil forecast: COT report – Feb 5, 2024

Bears continued to initiate fresh short bets against the Japanese yen, which points to further potential strength ahead of USD/JPY. Gold bulls trimmed longs for gold futures, and shorts continued to fall for crude oil.

Crude oil bulls eyeing key support following largest three-day plunge in months

Crude oil finished last week nursing its largest three-day decline since October, sliding 7.1% despite escalating geopolitical tensions. But with US and UK forces bombing Iranian-backed militia targets in Yemen, Iraq and Syria over the weekend, grounds for a bounce may be increasing.

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February 4, 2024 10:58 PM