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Recession Trade Keeps Risk Assets Under Pressure

Fears over a recession continues to drive financial markets, with commodities feeling the heat

Crude oil plunges as recession fears intensify

WTI has plunged about $10 from the highs to fall below $100 and was still going lower at the time of writing

July 5, 2022 04:31 PM

Q3 Outlook: What to expect from the coming quarter?

Stocks and treasuries plunged in the first half of 2022 as inflation and recession fears rose. What can we expect in Q3? Here we look at the main themes set to drive the markets and how they could influence the different areas of the market.

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What’s driving the global markets right now?

Everything you need to know about the current economic and monetary policy environment, and what it all means for financial markets

Commitment of traders report (COT): Copper investors run to the exit

If copper truly is a barometer of economic health, then it is worth noting that large speculators were their most bearish on copper futures since March 2020 last week.

Gold: What does Russian gold exports ban mean for metal, miners?

Russia might be the world’s second-biggest bullion miner, there are plenty of countries that could step in to meet any shortfall in physical gold supply.

June 27, 2022 12:58 PM

Poor PMIs underpin recession worries

This is the latest macro data to underscore worries about a sharp economic slowdown

Oil unlikely to hold rebound as recession fears intensify

A sharp slowdown in the global economy is now inevitable…

US open: Stocks tank on recession fears ahead of Powell’s testimony

US stocks are set to fall sharply on the open after yesterday’s rally proved to be short-lived and as all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell as his two-day testimony before Congress begins.

FTSE falls as UK inflation rises

FTSE falls as UK inflation rises, Where next for the FTSE?, Oil tumbles ahead of Powell, Where next for WTI oil?

What’s going on with gold?

the metal has been stuck around its 200 MA as traders digest conflicting macro factors.

June 21, 2022 11:12 AM

Commodities breaking lower as demand concerns intensify

Weakness in China, stagflation across the world and rising prices hurt demand

Two trades to watch: Gold, EUR/USD

Gold falls ahead of Powell. EUR/USD falls towards 1.05 ahead of EZ inflation.

Why you should watch the Baltic Dry Index as recession fears grow

The Baltic Dry Index has proven to be a reliable indicator of future global economic activity and could prove a useful tool amid the uncertain outlook.

US open: Futures plunge as inflation, recession fears rise

US futures are tumbling as the bond market flashes a recession warning signal. Investors fear an the Fed could have to act aggressively, pushing the economy into recession.

Two trades to watch: FTSE, Oil

FTSE falls as UK GDP unexpectedly contracts in April. Oil falls as COVID cases rise in China and on global growth concerns.

European Open: Futures point lower with a turbulent start to the week

Appetite for risk remained on the back ropes as Asian markets reacted to the hotter-than-expected inflation print from the US on Friday.

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Two trades to watch: Gold, DAX

Gold edges lower ahead of US CPI. DAX extends declines after ECB rate decision and as inflation fears remain.

Natural Gas puts in new highs, again!

Natural Gas prices have recently turned aggressively higher as demand for oil alternatives has picked up.

Crude oil: Could we see 14-year highs in WTI soon?

From a fundamental perspective, the rise in oil prices comes down to simply supply and demand.

Commitment of traders report (COT): Euro bears trim exposure

Traders increased net-long exposure to euro futures by over 18k contracts last week, and we suspect EUR/USD’s two-week rally has further to run.

European Open: PMI’s and BOC meeting in focus

The collection of PMI data also includes the ISM manufacturing report for the US, alongside the BOC’s meeting.

Oil slips on the last day of (another good) month ahead of OPEC

Whilst oil prices rallied for six consecutive months for the first time in 11-years, its last day of the month was a bit of a let-down for the bull camp.