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GBP/USD: Fading UK wages, unemployment data given bigger risk events ahead

GBP/USD looks set to remain in the trading range it’s been stuck in for weeks despite the arrival of wages and unemployment data from the UK later Tuesday, with traders likely to fade any significant moves ahead of the Fed interest rate decision and US inflation report on Wednesday.

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June 11, 2024 04:34 AM

GBP/USD forecast: Fed dot plot, US inflation set to shake things up

The Federal Reserve June FOMC meeting and US consumer price inflation for May look set to dictate directional risks for GBP/USD this week, overriding anything on the UK calendar including Britain’s unemployment report. Risks look skewed to the downside.

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June 8, 2024 09:00 PM

USD/JPY upside getting difficult as US economic data rolls over

USD/JPY is on the backfoot in early June, hit by narrowing yield differentials and a whiff of concern about the trajectory for the US economy. Data releases in the coming days may provide clarity on the answer, providing two-way price risks given elevated levels of uncertainty.

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June 4, 2024 12:18 AM

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USD/JPY forecast: Fed rates outlook resumes control, eyes on payrolls, ISM services

Directional risks for USD/JPY look set to be driven by economic data this week, helping to shape opinions on the US interest rate outlook given an absence of Fed speakers. With nonfarm payrolls and ISM services data to navigate, the environment looked primed for increased volatility.

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June 1, 2024 03:00 PM
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Sucked down the gurgler as US bond auctions flop

When the US government is forced to pay up to fund its ballooning deficit, it means it needs to attract capital from somewhere, be it other asset classes or regions. EUR and GBP are not immune to the global drain towards the US dollar.

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May 30, 2024 12:55 AM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Stalling disinflation weakens case for RBA rate cuts

Disinflationary forces in Australia have stalled with annual rates for headline and underlying inflation trending flat to higher, and well above the 2.5% midpoint of the RBA’s target. Not only does that weaken the case for rate cuts but means the next move from the RBA may be a hike.

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May 29, 2024 04:02 AM

GBP/USD, NZD/USD: Bullish breaks bring tougher tests on the horizon

GBP/USD and NZD/USD look bullish on the charts, breaking to fresh multi-month highs. With a light calendar in the UK and New Zealand, positioning tweaks ahead of Friday’s key US PCE inflation report looks set to drive the price action in the coming days.

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May 28, 2024 04:08 AM

USD/JPY: Japanese disinflationary pressures build casting doubt over future BOJ hikes

Be it headline or underlying price pressures, both are experiencing deep disinflation, casting doubt over the ability for the Bank of Japan to deliver more than the one rate hike already delivered.

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May 24, 2024 01:41 AM

USD/JPY: Waning inflationary pressures, steady BOJ bond buying points to upside risks

With Nvidia’s first quarter earnings report helping to boost investor sentiment and interest rate differentials between the US and Japan remaining at historically elevated levels thanks to continued delays to rate cuts from the Fed, USD/JPY continues to drift higher for the moment.

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May 23, 2024 02:54 AM
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NZD/USD: RBNZ delivers hawkish surprise, Kiwi gains capped by amplified economic risks

The RBNZ is intent on defeating inflation even if it means sacrificing the economy, delivering a major surprise at its latest monetary policy meeting by flagging the likelihood that rates may need to increase again. The Zealand dollar surged on the unexpected hawkish pivot.

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May 22, 2024 04:51 AM

RBNZ preview: Timeline for taming inflation key for New Zealand dollar reaction

The RBNZ is highly likely to leave its overnight cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday. However, with updated economic forecasts, along with a press conference from Governor Adrian Orr, the bank has been given plenty of clear air to shake these sleepy FX markets up, if it chooses to do so.

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May 21, 2024 05:04 AM

USD/JPY: Difficult for Fed to abandon higher for longer with no new data for guidance

With no new information for the Fed to consider this week, it’s difficult to see their narrative shifting from it still being far too soon to consider rate cuts. That points to upside risks for USD/JPY in the days ahead.

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May 20, 2024 12:39 AM

GBP/USD: Trade setups for today’s important US jobless claims update

US jobless claims data will garner far more interest than usual later Thursday as traders assess whether last week’s unusually large increase was an anomaly or start of a new trend. Testing a key level on the charts, two-way risk created by the data makes GBP/USD a pair to keep on the radar.

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May 16, 2024 06:34 AM
Downwards trend with red arrow

It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook

With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.

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May 15, 2024 11:52 PM

AUD/USD shrugs off soft wages report, attention shifts to US inflation print

Australian wage pressures undershot expectation in the March quarter, denting the prospect of another rate hike from the RBA. AUD/USD managed to shake off the news within seconds, underlining that US CPI mains the only game in town for traders on Wednesday.

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May 15, 2024 03:28 AM

Nikkei 225 faces crucial technical test as USD/JPY correlations go AWOL

Japan’s Nikkei 225 faces an important technical test today, pushing back to towards a resistance zone it’s been unable to break for weeks. With risk appetite rampant and softer yen helping to juice the earnings outlook for exporters, if bulls can’t reclaim the ascendancy today, when will they ever?

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May 15, 2024 12:08 AM
Multiple Euro bank notes in 20€, 50€ and 100€

EUR/USD: High bar for US economic data creates asymmetric upside risks

it’s now up to incoming data and news flow to continue fuelling the bullish USD narrative, otherwise it risks sparking a reversal. We may be seeing the inception of such a move in EUR/USD right now.

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May 14, 2024 05:45 AM

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USD/CNH: AUD, NZD, JPY face hammering if Asia’s FX anchor comes loose

If you trade Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, Australian or New Zealand dollar, you should always keep a close eye on what’s happening in the Chinese yuan. You’re doing yourself a disservice if your not.

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May 14, 2024 02:20 AM

AUD/USD: Cracks in Australia’s business outlook are starting to show

The latest NAB Business survey revealed a big slowdown in hiring in April, with new orders also declining at the fastest pace in several years. Importantly, the weakness coincided with a noticeable deceleration in up and downstream price pressures.

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May 13, 2024 04:06 AM
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NZD/USD: New Zealand economic downturn worsening ahead of key RBNZ inflation survey

While that keeps the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the table should inflationary pressures suddenly subside, for now, movements in NZD/USD continue to be dictated by sentiment on what the Federal Reserve may do with US interest rates in the months ahead.

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May 13, 2024 01:55 AM
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NZD/USD: US dollar corrective bounce looks mature, Kiwi upside favoured

The New Zealand dollar has been holding up well despite USD strength, continuing to find bids below .6000. With downside price momentum starting to ebb, grounds are building for near-term NZD/USD upside.

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May 9, 2024 03:06 AM

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As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.

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May 8, 2024 04:04 AM

AUD/USD forecast: RBA rate hike revival risk is real and growing

Stickiness in services and domestic inflation, accompanied by continued resilience in labour market conditions, points to the likelihood of the RBA striking a more hawkish tone in its May monetary policy meeting, creating upside risks for the Australian dollar

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May 6, 2024 07:05 AM