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AUD/USD, USD/CNH: PMIs suggest China’s economy is nearing stall speed

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

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Gold nuggets

Gold needs plenty to go right to maintain its bullish momentum

Gold is knocking on the door of record highs heading into what has recently been an extremely strong period for bullion prices. But having rallied so hard since early October, it comes across as being priced for perfection near-term.

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November 29, 2023 02:25 AM

AUD/USD threatening key level on slow progress in taming underlying inflation pressures

Headline Australian CPI undershot market expectations in October, although progress on taming underlying price pressures was disappointing, helping to boost AUD/USD.

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November 29, 2023 01:23 AM

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EUR/AUD looking heavy as support gives way

EUR/AUD has broken horizontal and uptrend support on the four hourly chart, generating a short setup with decent risk-reward.

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November 28, 2023 05:06 AM
USA flag

Nasdaq 100 overcooked, USD/JPY underdone given the shift in US yields

After a near 15% rally in under a month, the high-flying Nasdaq 100 looks tired on the charts, struggling to add to gains despite a continued pullback in US bond yields. In contrast, USD/JPY gives the impression it’s only starting the process of adjusting to the more placid US yield environment.

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November 27, 2023 11:59 PM

Hang Seng, USD/CNH provide conflicting signals towards China’s economic outlook

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the USD/CNH are providing conflicting signals on the outlook for Chinese markets, providing a reminder for traders not to become too attached to a particular position, be it bearish or bullish.

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November 27, 2023 04:33 AM

Gold, AUD/USD: Softer US dollar and bond yields provide window for upside

A softer US dollar has helped AUD/USD and gold push towards key technical levels, suggesting the near-term price performance may determine their longer-term trajectory as we head towards 2024.

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November 26, 2023 11:23 PM

USD/JPY: Offshore drivers remain in control unless the BOJ can normalise policy

USD/JPY traders barely acknowledged the release of Japan’s October inflation report, reinforcing the view the only thing that matters for the pair right now is developments in the US economy, unless the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or starts to normalise monetary policy.

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November 24, 2023 12:27 AM

NZD/USD: Retail spending volumes stabilise ahead of RBNZ interest rate decision

Retail spending in New Zealand was unchanged in the September quarter after accounting for price movements, an improvement on the 1% drop reported in the prior three-month period than was a tenth larger than originally reported.

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November 23, 2023 10:15 PM
PRC China and US flags overlapping

USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Chinese yuan strength a bullish signal for Asian FX names

The latest episode of US economic exceptionalism may be coming to an end, resulting in US bond yields and US dollar coming off their highs. Major Asian FX names like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan have been taking note, strengthening further against the buck on Friday.

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November 20, 2023 01:16 AM

Gold, USD/JPY: Batter up, bond auctions. It’s your turn to steal the spotlight

In a week when there’s little market moving macroeconomic events scheduled, fresh US Treasury auctions are likely to steal the spotlight. Yield sensitive assets such as gold and USD/JPY will be paying particularly close attention.

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November 17, 2023 01:59 AM
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AUD/USD, Crude Oil: Cyclicals swoon as global economic concerns intensify

While AUD/USD and WTI are two separate assets, their underwhelming performance recently is undeniably linked: global economic growth concerns are intensifying.

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November 16, 2023 11:02 PM
Australian flag

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Struggling for traction following latest corrective bounce

Australian employment growth continued to motor in September, keeping alive the prospect of a further interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia early in the new year.

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November 16, 2023 01:18 AM

AUD/USD, USD/CNH: Aussie dollar’s China proxy tag put to the test

AUD/USD is widely regarded as being a proxy for all things China: it’s economic performance, trends in financial markets and even the Chinese currency, the yuan.

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November 15, 2023 01:36 AM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: It’s no longer about inflation but the global economic outlook

The US consumer price inflation (CPI) report for October had an immediate and significant impact for markets, including USD/JPY and Nikkei 225. Attention is now likely to shift to whether we see a hard economic landing.

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November 14, 2023 11:15 PM

USD/JPY: Weakening upstream inflation bodes ill for BOJ wage acceleration

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

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November 13, 2023 02:02 AM

GBP/AUD: Central bank divergence put to the test as risk laden week begins

With plenty of major data and central bank speeches scheduled in the UK and Australia this week, the next few days may prove to be critical for the medium-term trajectory for GBP/AUD heading into 2024.

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November 13, 2023 12:52 AM

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Downward trend

AUD/USD, gold: Reversal roadblocks loom as prices near key levels

AUD/USD and gold have struggled in November, giving back some of the gains achieved in late October. With both sitting near key levels, we look at the prospects for a bounce or extension of the pullback in the days ahead.

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November 8, 2023 11:17 PM

AUD/USD, ASX 200: Don’t be so quick to call it a dovish RBA hike

Traders believe the RBA is one-and done when it comes to the restart of its tightening cycle, jumping to the conclusion the 25 basis point rate hike to 4.35% will likely be the last. AUD/USD fell while the ASX 200 rallied.

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November 7, 2023 04:38 AM

China A50, USD/CNH: Prime reversal candidates should US economic exceptionalism falter

It’s been a rough year for Chinese markets with the A50 share index and CNH down sharply as hopes for booming economic activity coming out of the pandemic failed to materialise.

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November 6, 2023 11:17 PM
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AUD/USD analysis: RBA, Peak Fed Rates Narrative makes Aussie Currency Pair of the Week

The AUD/USD is our featured currency pair of the week, in what will be a quieter week for economic data compared to the previous week. Still, it could be a busy one for the Aussie given that we have a rate decision from the RBA as well as economic data from China and the US to look forward to.

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Markets 4X4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

Huge day for S&P 500, sweet spot for fixed income investors, AUD/USD perking up while Japan win big with timely bond auction.

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November 2, 2023 04:58 AM

Markets 4x4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

USD/JPY intervention warnings escalate, PBOC's record push against market forces, USD King for a reason and US real yields push higher before Treasury refunding announcement. Gold is struggling in the difficult environment.

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November 1, 2023 04:16 AM