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Australian dollar setups following hot inflation print: AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD
It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.
US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits
If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.
AUD/USD forecast: Bullish reversal may have legs before key inflation update
Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.
GBP/USD: Selling squeezes as bearish fundamentals and technicals combine
Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks for the US and UK continue to weigh on GBP/USD, making the case for downside a far easier sell than for upside right now.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Jobs report has little RBA implications, back to watching China
Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Even the strongest market trends are under threat
USD/JPY upside looks limited in the near-term, hindered by narrowing interest rate differentials and perceived increased risk of Bank of Japan intervention. The stronger yen may add to growing downside momentum in the Nikkei 225, putting two of the strongest market trends in 2024 under threat.
NZD/USD pops as RBNZ rate cuts bets delivered sticky reality check
New Zealand inflationary pressures continued to ease in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, likely keeping the prospect of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a distant prospect.
NZD/USD: Inflation the only barrier between the RBNZ and rate cuts
Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.
AUD/USD bearish trend may be disrupted by China’s market open
Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.
USD/JPY forecast: New threat emerges as biggest risk to the rally
Sitting at 34-year highs and with market positioning nearing extreme levels, further USD/JPY upside is likely predicted on two factors this week: ongoing US economic exceptionalism and no dramatic escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.
EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix
With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.
USD/JPY upside looks compelling if not for the BOJ intervention threat
Whether you look at fundamentals or technicals, the case for USD/JPY is compelling. But the threat of BOJ intervention has not gone away, making for a tricky environment for traders to navigate. However, the volatility it generates creates multiple trade setups depending on your preferred timeframe.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY: RBNZ not wilting on inflation focus despite double dip recession
The Kiwi dollar is pushing higher, potentially reflecting no escalation in dovish rhetoric from the RBNZ despite New Zealand sitting in a double-dip recession. It has an inflation mandate and inflation remains too high to justify lowering rates yet.
USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Bonds just delivered a message to traders about the US inflation report
Bond markets make the financial markets go round, so when they provide a strong signal on how Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation report may be interpreted, every trader should sit up and take notice.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY RBNZ preview: A little central bank that packs an almighty market punch
While it may be one of the smallest G10 FX central banks, what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lacks in size it more than makes up for in terms of market punch, often sparking major moves in the New Zealand dollar under the leadership of Governor Adrian ‘Shock and’ Orr. Wednesday's interest rate decision may be no exception.
USD/JPY forecast: BOJ intervention risk, geopolitics cap upside despite US inflation threat
USD/JPY sits in a narrow trading range, sandwiched by bullish fundamentals and threat of intervention from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. The latter has reduced the odds of near-term upside for USD/JPY despite the release of important inflation updates in the United States this week.
USD/JPY, Gold outlook: The payrolls figure in the NFP report is not as important as you think
Forget focusing on the payrolls figure in the US jobs report. It’s not as important as it’s made out to be. Traders would be better off looking at unemployment and average hourly earnings data if they want to know how markets are likely to react.
USD/JPY: Selling rallies far easier than buying dips given the growing threat of BOJ intervention
With the threat of BOJ intervention elevated and seemingly increasing, buying USD/JPY right now screens as high risk and low reward. Selling rallies ahead of 152 looks a far stronger trade setup, especially when you consider how significant the US rates repricing has already been this year.
Booming commodities, China turnaround a risk for bloated bearish AUD/USD bets
With ample good news priced into the US dollar outlook and a big reversal in the AUD/USD on Tuesday, there are signs the torrent of bearish sentiment may be slowly turning around.
US dollar rally hits headwinds, silver squeeze sparks potential bullish break
After the rapid repricing of Fed rate cut expectations, US economic exceptionalism is now arguably already priced into the US dollar, leaving little room for downside disappointment in upcoming US economic data.
EUR, GBP, AUD wilting as fundamentals and technicals fuel US dollar upside
With EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD breaking uptrends established when the Fed pivoted away from rate hikes, we look at the levels to watch ahead of key US non-farm payrolls and ISM services PMI releases later this week.
AUD/USD forecast: US economic exceptionalism required to cement bearish break
AUD/USD remains a sell-on-rallies prospect in a week where interpretation of Fedspeak and US labour market data will dominate. It will be imperative for the US data to portray a message of continued economic strength to see meaningful downside materialise.
USD/JPY forecast: Stalemate looms on BOJ intervention threat, range trading favoured
The threat of intervention from the BOJ has increased, likely limiting upside for USD/JPY in the near to medium-term. But extremely wide interest rate differentials and buoyant markets suggest it shouldn’t be significantly lower. It points to a stalemate for yen bulls and bears but opens the door for traders to play existing ranges.