AUD/USD

DAX rises after GDP upward revision, but China worries could cap gains. AUD/USD falls as China COVID cases rise.

The RBA’s November minutes lean towards 25bp hike/s with a pause along the way, with a 50bp hike likely requiring higher inflation expectations and wages.

Hopes are high that we’ll see core CPI data for the US soften slightly, but with the weaker dollar holding above key support it leaves room for gains with a slight ‘beat’.

AUD/USD recovers after weak Chinese inflation data. FTSE wobbles as results come in.

Business confidence came to a standstill according to a monthly NAB (National Australian Bank) survey, whilst consumer confidence is its lowest since the pandemic.

With the stronger than expected payroll data, the Fed can continue to do as it pleases regarding “price stability”.

The RBA are set to hold their November meeting tomorrow at 14:30 AEDT and, whilst the consensus is for a 25bp hike, it doesn’t mean they won’t do a 50bp one instead.

The RBA are set to hold their November meeting tomorrow at 14:30 AEDT and, whilst the consensus is for a 25bp hike, it doesn’t mean they won’t do a 50bp one instead.

The focus this morning for local markets has been on the RBA Board meeting minutes for September and for possible clues it contained as to the Board’s view around the pace of future interest rate hikes.

With mixed data from US Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the NY State Empire Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar has been quiet.

With some calm restored to Wall Street overnight, attention today tuned to the release of Q2 NZ GDP and the Australian August labour force report for August.

This morning saw the release of Australian Business and Consumer Confidence data, framed against surging prices and a fourth consecutive 50bp rate hike from the RBA last week.

The national accounts released today showed the Australian economy in the June Quarter expanded by a solid 0.9% and 3.6% YoY. It's the third consecutive quarter of economic expansion for the Australian economy.

At its monthly meeting this afternoon, the Reserve Bank Board raised its official cash rate for a fourth consecutive time by 50bp from 1.85% to 2.35%.

On Tuesday, the RBA Board meets and is widely expected to raise the cash rate. Once again, the main question will be how much.

The Australian jobs report for July has provided a messy mix. The unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of 3.4%, despite the economy shedding 40,900 jobs, snapping a run of eight consecutive months of gains.

With poor economic data and a rate cut from China, it was almost a perfect storm for commodity currencies to sell off, particularly, AUD/USD.