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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD struggles below 1.09 ahead of manufacturing data & Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Oil falls after OPEC+ underwhelmed.

EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open

With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

EUR/USD, USD/JPY implied vols rise ahead CPI and GDP data: European Open

With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.

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November 29, 2023 04:52 AM

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EUR/USD analysis: Technical Tuesday – Nov 28, 2023

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.

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November 28, 2023 11:30 AM
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Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

Uptrend

EUR/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – Nov 27, 2023

EUR/USD outlook supported by weakening US dollar, which will be put under the spotlight by GDP and core PCE inflation data this week. Weaker Eurozone inflation data could paradoxically lift EUR/USD to 1.10 as technical analysis shows path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Multiple Euro bank notes in 20€, 50€ and 100€

EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD rises ahead of a key week for data. Oil slides with the focus on Thursday's OPEC+ meeting.

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November 27, 2023 08:46 AM
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US dollar analysis: EUR/USD, NZD/USD - Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar, EUR/USD and NZD/USD ahead of next week's key macro events.

Research

EUR/USD looks set to mean revert, Nasdaq to rally into Thanksgiving? European open

Has the rally on EUR/USD gone too far, too soon? Whilst it shows the potential for further gains, a pullback would not come as too much of a surprise. And with the Nasdaq rising ~80% of the Wednesday's ahead of Thanksgiving, we feel inclined to seek intraday bullish setups today.

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November 22, 2023 04:58 AM
Uptrend

Euro to US dollar analysis: EUR/USD outlook in focus - Currency Pair of the Week

The EUR/USD is likely to be among the more active currency pairs this week, which I am expecting to potentially rise to 1.10 handle amid improved risk sentiment and recent falls in US yields and dollar. Although the economic situation in the eurozone remains far from convincing, markets may have gotten ahead of itself with regards to ECB rate cuts being priced in as early as April.

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US dollar index approaches its 200-day MA as EUR/USD eyes resistance

With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.

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November 20, 2023 04:26 AM
Research

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.

Uptrend

US dollar, EUR/USD and GBP/JPY analysis - Forex Friday

The big story this week has been on the inflation front, with CPI in the US and UK both falling faster than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed and other central banks will no longer raise rates further. With a couple of other key US economic pointers also coming in weaker this week, such as industrial production and jobless claims data, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, this has led to speculation that the Fed may start cutting rates sooner than expected in 2024

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November 17, 2023 11:40 AM
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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD falls ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech & US jobless claims. Oil falls for a third straight day after inventories rise.

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November 16, 2023 08:53 AM
Research

EUR/USD outlook has brightened by signs of peak US inflation

The EUR/USD was a touch lower after Tuesday’s big rally. But more gains could be on the way as investors will be expecting the slowdown in US inflation will have much more to go as higher borrowing costs increasingly weigh on economic activity while housing rents slow further down in the coming months. Investors were awaiting the release of more US data later today, including retail sales, PPI and New York Manufacturing Index.

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November 15, 2023 11:20 AM
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USD/JPY bears eye 150, DAX squares up to its 200-day MA: European open

Whilst the 200-day MA stands in the way of further DAX gains, I suspect a move to 16k could still be on the cards. USD/JPY could also test 150 as part of its next leg lower, if incoming US data disappoints.

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November 15, 2023 04:32 AM

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Research

Euro to US dollar analysis: EUR/USD lifted by German ZEW ahead of US CPI

The EUR/USD and all other major euro crosses rose this morning, finding support from slightly stronger Eurozone data and the overall positive risk tone across financial markets we have seen in recent days. Investors were reluctant to punish the dollar more forcefully, however, as they awaited the release of key US inflation data.

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November 14, 2023 11:20 AM
Research

EUR/USD, USD/JPY key levels ahead of US inflation: European open

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

Forex trading

EUR/USD and GBP/USD analysis in focus - Forex Friday

Following Thursday’s bullish reversal in the dollar on the back of a soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell, the key question is whether those gains will last. I don’t think the Fed Chair said anything out of the ordinary, although that’s not to say the dollar won’t necessarily rise further. I mean, you wouldn’t expect him to turn decisively dovish just on the back of a couple of weaker data points.

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November 10, 2023 11:00 AM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Outlook: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD holds above 1.07 ahead of ECB Lagarde & Powell’s speech. USD/JPY is on intervention watch ahead of Fed Chair Powell & jobless claims.

Forex trading

EUR/USD analysis: Euro held back on soft EZ data ahead of Powell

Following last week’s impressive rally, the EUR/USD was down for the third day at the time of writing on Wednesday afternoon. It was held back by the fact we have seen further deterioration in Eurozone data. The US dollar index was up for the third day, further eating into last week’s drop.

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November 8, 2023 11:20 AM
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GBP/USD caught between BOE, Fed speak, EUR/USD teases 1.07: European open

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have found themselves under pressure from a stronger US dollar this week and are at risk of closing lower for a third if traders take any hawkish Fed comments to heart. Yet the daily trend structures mean I am also on the lookout for swing lows for both pairs over the near-term.

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November 8, 2023 03:13 AM