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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD looks to the ECB rate decision. GBP/USD eases after wage growth keeps August rate cut hopes alive.

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How Could the US Presidential Election Impact Markets? A 40-Year Study Looking at 5 Key Markets

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

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EUR/USD Outlook: Attention turns to ECB's policy meeting

The European Central Bank's upcoming policy decision could turn out to be an important event for the EUR/USD pair. While no rate cuts are expected this time, the ECB's stance and any forward guidance will be closely scrutinised. The previous rate cut in June was driven by concerns over economic growth and as inflation showed weakening signs.

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EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD weighs up Trump & Powell ahead of US retail sales. FTSE falls on Trump trade and China worries.

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EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week - July 15, 2024

Already cutting rates in June, the European Central Bank will be in focus again this week. This time, no rate cuts are expected from the ECB, which, together with reduced political uncertainty in Europe and weakness in US data, should all help to keep the euro supported against the US dollar, maintaining the short-term EUR/USD forecast in bulls’ favour.

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EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD recovers from earlier losses with Trump & Powell in focus. FTSE falls following weaker China data.

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July 15, 2024 12:40 PM
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures after a 2-week hiatus, whilst AUD/USD breached the bullish threshold for the first time in three years according to the commitment of traders report (COT).

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EURUSD, DXY Analysis: Rate Cut Bets vs Stretched Momentum Indicators

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: latest CPI figures boosted the sustainability rate of the dis-inflationary track, leading to a drop in US bond yields and boosting the likelihood of a September rate cut

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July 12, 2024 11:38 AM
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EURUSD, USDMXN Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

The sustainability of the US disinflationary trajectory towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be tested today with the release of the June CPI indicator

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July 11, 2024 11:13 AM
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EUR/USD firms up ahead of US CPI, gold appears hesitant to reclaim 2400

It seems there is already excitement in the air for a soft CPI report, with EUR/USD rising in today’s Asian session. But if CPI delivers an upside surprise, gold may be the better bet for bears over the near term.

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July 11, 2024 04:24 AM
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EUR/USD forecast remains mildly bullish as traders await Powell, CPI

The week’s big event is the US CPI data release on Thursday, which might reignite volatility in the FX space. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains only modestly bullish, as it is lacking any significant follow-through.

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July 9, 2024 01:58 PM
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD holds above 1.08 amid French political uncertainty & ahead of Powell’s testimony. GBP/USD holds steady after last week's election & after a cautious BoE Haskel.

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July 9, 2024 09:53 AM
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Yen, AUD/USD, Gold, Dow Jones Analysis: COT report

Large speculators were on the cusp of reaching a record level of net-short exposure to yen futures last week, whilst they're also getting close to reaching net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures.

EURUSD Outlook: French Political Uncertainties vs Fed Rate Cut Bets

EURUSD Outlook: Despite the bearish impact of political and economic uncertainty in the EU, EURUSD is holding at a bullish end amid Fed rate cut bets

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Crude Oil, EURUSD Forecast: Key Levels Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Week

Crude Oil, EURUSD Forecast: Oil hovers at the upper edge of its consolidation, while EURUSD surges towards it.

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GBP/USD, EUR/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD rises on General Election Day. EUR/USD rises to a 3-week high, ECB minutes are due.

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July 4, 2024 09:43 AM
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NFP Preview: Signs of a Slow Job Market Could Take EUR/USD Above 1.08

EUR/USD is rallying toward the key 1.0800 level that could set the tone for the rest of the month ahead of the NFP report.

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July 3, 2024 03:10 PM

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EURUSD Forecast: ECB Policies vs FED Policies

EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD is trading above of its key consolidation ahead of FOMC minutes

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EUR/USD forecast: French elections uncertainty hangs over markets

Mainstream parties are now devising strategies to prevent the far-right party from achieving an absolute majority, while Marine Le Pen will also be seeking support from beyond her RN party should it fall short of an absolute majority in Sunday’s legislative elections. Consequently, French politics will remain in the spotlight for the rest of the week.

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July 2, 2024 02:00 PM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trade to watch

EUR/USD looks to eurozone inflation and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. USD/JPY rises to fresh 38-year highs as the USD tracks yields higher.

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JPY, EUR, CAD, AUD, Crude Oil Analysis: COT report

Large speculators flipped to net-short exposure to EUR/USD ahead of the French election. Open interest on CAD futures fell at its fastest pace in nearly one year as the sentiment extreme we warned of plays out. Net-long exposure to AUD/USD futures fell to a 3-year low, and prospects of net-long exposure are now on the horizon with the potential for an RBA hike.

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Forex Seasonality – July 2024: GBP/USD Rally Potential Amid Summer Doldrums?

July has been the 3rd strongest month for GBP/USD historically, and bulls will be pinning their hopes on a recovery rally this month after the June drop.

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Shifting focus to US growth? AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD setups before PCE

Everyone expects a soft US core PCE inflation print on Friday. The seeds for such an outcome were sown weeks ago following the release of weak consumer and producer price data. So what happens to the US dollar unless we receive a surprise?

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June 28, 2024 12:48 AM