EUR/USD

EUR/USD struggles below 1.09 ahead of manufacturing data & Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Oil falls after OPEC+ underwhelmed.

With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.

With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

EUR/USD outlook supported by weakening US dollar, which will be put under the spotlight by GDP and core PCE inflation data this week. Weaker Eurozone inflation data could paradoxically lift EUR/USD to 1.10 as technical analysis shows path of least resistance remains to the upside.

EUR/USD rises ahead of a key week for data. Oil slides with the focus on Thursday's OPEC+ meeting.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar, EUR/USD and NZD/USD ahead of next week's key macro events.

EUR/USD falls ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech & US jobless claims. Oil falls for a third straight day after inventories rise.

The EUR/USD was a touch lower after Tuesday’s big rally. But more gains could be on the way as investors will be expecting the slowdown in US inflation will have much more to go as higher borrowing costs increasingly weigh on economic activity while housing rents slow further down in the coming months. Investors were awaiting the release of more US data later today, including retail sales, PPI and New York Manufacturing Index.

Whilst the 200-day MA stands in the way of further DAX gains, I suspect a move to 16k could still be on the cards. USD/JPY could also test 150 as part of its next leg lower, if incoming US data disappoints.

The EUR/USD and all other major euro crosses rose this morning, finding support from slightly stronger Eurozone data and the overall positive risk tone across financial markets we have seen in recent days. Investors were reluctant to punish the dollar more forcefully, however, as they awaited the release of key US inflation data.

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

Following Thursday’s bullish reversal in the dollar on the back of a soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell, the key question is whether those gains will last. I don’t think the Fed Chair said anything out of the ordinary, although that’s not to say the dollar won’t necessarily rise further. I mean, you wouldn’t expect him to turn decisively dovish just on the back of a couple of weaker data points.

EUR/USD holds above 1.07 ahead of ECB Lagarde & Powell’s speech. USD/JPY is on intervention watch ahead of Fed Chair Powell & jobless claims.

Following last week’s impressive rally, the EUR/USD was down for the third day at the time of writing on Wednesday afternoon. It was held back by the fact we have seen further deterioration in Eurozone data. The US dollar index was up for the third day, further eating into last week’s drop.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have found themselves under pressure from a stronger US dollar this week and are at risk of closing lower for a third if traders take any hawkish Fed comments to heart. Yet the daily trend structures mean I am also on the lookout for swing lows for both pairs over the near-term.