Trade ideas

Trade tensions ease as tariff threats pause, fuelling sharp rallies in AUD/USD, EUR/USD and Hang Seng futures. But with US markets shut and liquidity thin, is this breakout a reliable signal or a classic bull trap?

Oil is falling from a multi-month high amid uncertainty over what policy measures Trump could implement as he re-enters the White House for a second term.

With the US out, it has understandably been a quiet day so far in Europe where major indices were trading mixed but holding onto their recent impressive gains. Some of the major European indices hit new record highs last week, including the high-flying German DAX index.

Was last week’s Nasdaq and Russell 2000 rally driven by politics or something deeper in the rates market? Unpack the signals behind the big US stock market surge.

The upcoming week could kick off with a bang, even though Wall Street will sit Monday out due to Martin Luther King Day. Donald Trump is set to begin his second term as US President on the same day, ensuring a headline-filled start to the trading week.

The price of gold snaps a three-day rally to hold below the December high ($2726) ahead of the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

USD/JPY’s usual ties to Treasury yields are wilting, leaving the pair at the mercy of Trump’s tariff moves and the BoJ’s rate decision. With key levels in play and volatility brewing, this will set you up for the week ahead.

USD/CAD set a fresh four-year-high late in the week and bulls retain control as President-elect Trump is set to be inaugurated on Monday.

AUD/USD no longer carves a series of higher highs and lows as it struggles to push above the weekly high (0.6247).

USD/CAD is poised for a breakout with the January opening-range intact ahead of President Trump’s inauguration. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Along with other Japanese yen crosses, the GBP/JPY has been creating bearish price action this week amid rising expectations that the BoJ will tighten its policy next week. The GBP/JPY forecast is now looking bearish, with momentum gathering pace as more and more support levels give way.

USD/CHF seems to be unfazed by the weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales report as it holds above the weekly low (0.9079).

USD/JPY turned from trend resistance after a five-week hold. Support now in view heading into Trump’s inauguration. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.

Investors are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including jobless claims and retail sales data today, for clues about the health of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory. For as long as we don’t see big surprises, mildly positive surprises in these areas could reinforce the market’s optimism and provide further fuel for the S&P 500.

FTSE rises as the pound sinks and growth stalls. EUR/USD holds below 1.03 ahead of ECB minutes, US retail sales & jobless claims.

Concerns over rising inflationary pressures were building as we headed towards the end of 2024. And the rapid acceleration of crude oil prices this year is doing nothing to alleviate those concerns.

AUD/USD edges higher as a strong jobs report questions the need for RBA rate cuts. Could this be the spark for a breakout, or will resistance keep the Aussie in check?