S&P 500 forecast: A closer look at ‘Santa’s rally’
Santa’s rally refers to the tendency for equity markets to rally into the end of the year. Today we take a closer look at this phenomenon on the S&P 500.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
Gold eyes record high, ASX probes resistance: Asian Open
Gold took full advantage of lower yields on Friday to accelerate into its record high, leaving the question as to whether it can break above this key milestone or present us with a desirable pullback first. The ASX 200 is also considering a break above its 200-day MA.
Nonfarm payroll, ISM, BOC and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead – Dec 1, 2023
With traders more than happy to price in Fed cuts for 2024 where possible, they will be looking for further signs that the US economy is slowing but at a rate that does not scream recession. And this places US ISM services and the nonfarm payroll report into the limelight next week. China’s trade data and inflation figures may reveal whether Beijing need to step up support for the economy yet again. And whilst the RBA and BOC are expected to hold the cash rate steady at their monetary policy meetings, their statements may indicate how much of an appetite there is for further hikes in Q1.
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
Gold on a sec… gold just posted its highest monthly close on record
Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record, and now trades less than $40 from its record high set in May. With seasonality on its side, I suspect another crack at the record high could be in order. Although it does run the risk of a shakeout around the milestone level.
EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open
With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.
AUD/USD, gold stall around key levels ahead of US inflation: Asian Open
The US PCE inflation report is arguably the event of the week, and with traders having vigorously sold the US dollar ahead of it I am left wondering if it is a case of ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact’ – especially if it comes on hot. And with AUD/USD and gold stalling around key levels on Wednesday, the potential for mean reversion seems apparent.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY implied vols rise ahead CPI and GDP data: European Open
With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.
NZ dollar takes flight as RBNZ strike a hawkish tone (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD)
Whilst the RBNZ were expected to hold, their statement struck a hawkish tone by stating that “inflation remains too high”. And with traders front-loading a weak CPI print for the US later this week it has catapulted the New Zealand dollar higher.
AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open
With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.