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EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.

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Yesterday 04:42 AM
Energy

Crude oil spikes on reports of Israeli airstrike, gold threatens new high

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.

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April 19, 2024 04:35 AM
Energy

WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks

Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.

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April 17, 2024 04:02 AM

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US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024

Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.

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Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions

Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.

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Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance

Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.

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April 12, 2024 05:51 AM
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Crude oil, gold pullbacks unlikely to last long with inflation expectations so elevated

It’s not just fundamentals and technicals driving the rally across large parts of the commodity complex right now, but also a collective rethink from traders about what more than 250 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this cycle will mean for the long-term global inflation trajectory.

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April 8, 2024 03:33 AM
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USD/JPY, Gold outlook: The payrolls figure in the NFP report is not as important as you think

Forget focusing on the payrolls figure in the US jobs report. It’s not as important as it’s made out to be. Traders would be better off looking at unemployment and average hourly earnings data if they want to know how markets are likely to react.

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April 5, 2024 02:15 AM
Energy

Crude oil forecast: Bullish golden cross looms as WTI hits 2024 highs

The crude oil rally has seen the 50-day moving average flick sharply higher, putting it on track to generate a Golden Cross as it moves above the 200-day moving average. History suggests this may fuel further gains despite the price sitting in overbought territory.

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April 4, 2024 06:32 AM
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Gold Analysis: XAU/USD Surges to Fresh Record Above $2250 – Where Next?

Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above previous-resistance-turned-support near $2200 ahead of NFP on Friday

Crude oil rises on production cuts, ASX 200 set to retrace? Asian Open

With geopolitical tensions on the rise and Russia announcing production cuts as infrastructure continues to face attacks, the path of least resistance for WTI crude oil appears to be higher.

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March 25, 2024 10:27 PM
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The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

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March 19, 2024 02:03 AM
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Crude oil consolidates bullish break, gold heavy after record run

How many rate cuts the Federal Reserve signals for 2024 could have an outsized impact on how commodities such as crude oil and gold perform longer-term.

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March 18, 2024 06:10 AM
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GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report

With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.

Energy

Crude oil analysis: WTI breaks $80 barrier

Factors supporting oil price include optimism over China, bullish forecast from IEA and general strength in commodities.

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Commodities warning of shifting directional price risks

Gold, copper, silver, crude, cocoa – it’s a rarity to not come across a particular commodity that’s suddenly running hard. Every day there seems to be another one joining the increasingly lengthy list, providing a sense we may be at a turning point for the broader commodity complex.

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March 14, 2024 02:26 AM
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Hold your horses before buying copper’s bullish break

Those considering buying the break may want to look at copper’s lousy track record when it’s been this overbought on the four hourly chart in the past.

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The seeds for iron ore’s latest lurch lower were sown last week

Iron ore futures are in an increasingly ugly bear market, spiraling lower since the beginning of the year after defying bears for what seemed to be an eternity in 2023. With the price catching up to what fundamentals had been warning for months, traders are wondering how far the move can extend?

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March 13, 2024 04:47 AM
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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, gold analysis: COT report – March 11, 2024

The reversal on USD/JPY did not come without warning, as traders had reached a record level of net-short exposure. And whilst USD/JPY may be due for a bounce, further downside potential remains.

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This might be the most important chart in the financial world right now

Especially for those traders who like to dabble in markets exposed to currency or interest rate risk.

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March 7, 2024 05:03 AM
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Gold, Bitcoin Hit Record Highs: Are Traders Afraid of Sovereign Debt Loads?

Some analysts are speculating that the market is “sniffing out” the fact that the US and other developed countries will be unable to maintain high interest rates for long given their record debt loads. See what it might mean for Gold and Bitcoin!

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Silver surge sparks speculation over potential super squeeze

Silver has recorded its largest gain in months, sparking plenty of excitement on social media and other investment platforms that the move may be the start of a prolonged price rally.

USD/JPY, WTI crude oil, gold analysis: COT report

Short exposure to the Japanese yen continues to venture towards the extreme, which suggests USD/JPY could fast be approaching a reversal.