Indices Market

Can rebounding oil prices fuel rally in energy stocks like BP and Shell? FTSE technical analysis hints at potential recovery for UK index. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil rises above 200-day average ahead of OPEC meeting.

The ongoing stock market rally continues. With the US Thanksgiving holiday keeping trading on the quieter side today, the European markets edged higher. The DAX has now completely made back the entire losses it suffered between September and October. Other mainland European indices have similarly made strong gains, along with Wall Street. But frustratingly for the UK market, the FTSE has not shown much desire to go higher.

The Nasdaq 100 is at year-to-date highs and Nvidia is at record highs ahead of earnings this afternoon...

I have always had an inkling that US equity markets tend to perform well heading into Thanksgiving. So today, I put that theory to the test.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both seem somewhat overbought following a rapid three-week surge. Wednesday's price action has raised the possibility of a short-term pullback. Despite this, it's essential to differentiate any potential short-term weakness from a bearish reversal, unless price action on the charts or a strong pushback from the Federal Reserve indicate otherwise.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are all testing key resistance levels and could pull back over the next couple days...

After hitting a new all-time high in February, the FTSE has struggled to find any sustainable support, hurt by concerns over China, UK’s struggling economy and high interest rates across the world. But we have had some positive data out of China, the UK and US this week, which may mean the worst days are behind us.

The DAX may have broken the 15k level, but it remains within a bearish channel and resistance zone on the daily timeframe – so I’m looking out for a potential swing high once its current rally has petered out. USD/JPY has found intraday support around a cluster of technical levels, which paints a near-term bullish bias.

Sentiment has been somewhat firmer in the last couple of days with global indices staging a decent recovery. But at the start of today’s session, caution was the name of the game. European indices and US futures were trading a touch lower as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

US futures are pointing to a muted open after strong gains in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve begins its two day policy meeting and as earnings continue to roll in. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching commentary tomorrow on the future path for interest rates in light of recent strong data. US Consumer confidence data is due later today and is expected to ease to 100 from 103.

The 4-month winning streak on oil prices is on track to be snapped, with October having erased all of September’s gains. And this flies in the face of current news flows, of the potential for the Middle East conflict to escalate and send oil prices higher (alongside food, energy and inflation expectations).

The Nasdaq 100 gave up earlier gains and was trading flat at the time of writing, ahead of major earnings. Stronger-than-expected PMI data earlier from the US, where both the services and manufacturing sectors showed moderate expansion with 50+ readings, boosted the “higher for longer” narrative.

Sentiment was a little more cheerful in the first half of Tuesday’s session, following Monday’s recovery in stock and bond markets, and the return of the selling in precious metals and oil markets. European indices and US futures were trading higher as yields dipped further lower after the US 10-year could not hold above the key 5% level for long on Monday.

The FTSE and DAX both fell after relatively weak economic data drove fears of a recession, while the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas hurt risk appetite across the board...

It was “risk off” again first thing this morning as Europe’s leading indices fell along with US index futures following Wednesday’s selling. Though the indices bounced off their lows by mid-day London, it remained to be seen whether the markets will be able to regain their poise meaningfully. Recent recovery attempts have all been futile. This could be another one.

As investors assess the risks of interest rates remaining high for longer, and of course, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East following the bombing of the hospital in Gaza, they are not going to be aggressive in risk-taking you would think.