Indices Market

After a hefty pullback, 19k looms for Nasdaq futures traders. Yet the higher timeframes suggests there could further downside even if it manages a bounce from nearby support. The ASX may fare better as its pullback is so far pale in comparison.

You don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?

The DJIA has fallen back to retest the psychologically-significant $40K level, which could now provide support for the index moving forward.

Investors are turning their attention to US earnings with 29% of the S&P 500 companies set to report their results this week. Tonight, we will hear from two of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, Alphabet and Tesla, which could impact the S&P 500 forecast.

NZD/USD looks terrible on the charts, weighed down by the RBNZ’s dovish pivot and renewed concerns towards the outlook for the Chinese economy. While that cyclical play looks ill, a bounce in Nikkei 225 futures has provide a decent long setup into US tech earnings.

AUD/USD tracked copper prices lower for a sixth day, during its worst day in six weeks. Whilst both markets shows the potential for further losses, these may not be the ideal levels for bears to enter.

The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing off 50-day EMA support – key resistance looms at 20K, with support at 18,900 and 18,400.

The S&P 500 has been historically quiet, and given that volatility has a tendency to be cyclical, we could see an outbreak of larger moves in the near future.

The Dow has risen along with the Russell 200 index after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.0% instead of the expected 3.1%. Small caps are set for a big rally, with Russell 2000 index breaking out a good 3% at the time of writing.

Interest rates are starting to be cut across the developed world. The combination of lower borrowing costs and positive economic growth should benefit cyclical assets, including stock indices which have lagged during the aggressive rate tightening cycle of recent years. That presents an opportunity for traders.

The ever-weaker yen allowed USD/JPY to drift higher for a third day, and now trades less than a typical day's range from the 162 handle - a level not tested since 1986. Wall Street indices reached record highs on dovish comments from Jerome Powell's testimony, and that bodes well for the ASX 200 today.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

If the Politburo wants to get Chinese markets excited about what may come out of next week’s third plenum, it better get cracking. Because with economic activity coming off the boil and with no sign of major stimulus measures in sight, not only are stock indices rolling over but breaking or threatening to break key levels on the charts.

The German DAX index is showing a bullish signal, setting the stage for potential gains on Friday and possibly in early next week ahead once the French elections are out of the way.

Today, millions of UK citizens are heading to polling stations to vote in the general elections, while the US is out celebrating Independence Day. Then it is all about the French legislative election on Sunday, which can arguably have a bigger influence on the FTSE 100 forecast than the UK vote today.